Ukraine's victory "almost a done deal": Military expert on how Russia's invasion imploded

[marmar]

Ukraine's victory "almost a done deal": Military expert on how Russia's invasion imploded
Retired U.S. Army officer and author John Spencer on the "dying breath of a giant" — Russia's historic collapse

By CHAUNCEY DEVEGA
Senior Writer
PUBLISHED OCTOBER 11, 2022 6:30AM (EDT)


(Salon) Eight months ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, describing it as a "special military operation." Most military analysts expected an easy victory. The Russians had a significant numerical advantage in personnel and equipment, much greater firepower, air and naval superiority and seemingly bottomless resources with which to impose its will. It was reasonable to believe that Russia would conquer Ukraine rapidly and then replace the existing government before declaring "victory".

Of course, that did not happen.

The Ukrainians had been preparing for this eventuality since at least 2014, when the Russian military and its allied forces invaded eastern Ukraine and illegally occupied and annexed Crimea. With the help of the U.S. and other Western allies, the Ukrainians put in place an extremely effective system of total resistance, in which nearly the entire society was mobilized to defend the nation.

....(snip)....

Russia's military has suffered numerous setbacks and been exposed as a hollow force, poorly equipped and even more poorly led. Russian forces have suffered heavy losses in Ukraine, with the Ukrainian government claiming that 50,000 Russian soldiers have died, although U.S. estimates are around half that number. Experts have concluded that it will take years to rebuild the Russian military.

....(snip)....

John Spencer is a retired U.S. Army major who is chair of urban warfare studies at the Madison Policy Forum. He also consults for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the UN and other military and national security organizations. Spencer's essays and other writing have been featured by the New York Times, the Washington Post, USA Today, the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy and other leading publications.

....(snip)....

It has been about eight months since the beginning of Russia's war in Ukraine, and matters have changed a great deal, both on the ground and in terms of the larger strategic picture. How do you assess the situation now?

War is the true test of the human soul. We can compare militaries by their numbers, the amount of land they currently control and other metrics. But as we have seen with the war in Ukraine, numbers don't tell the whole story. The Ukrainian military and other forces are not really the underdog anymore. In terms of quality of their forces, leadership, doctrine, how they deploy their weapons, morale and other measurements, they surpass Russia. Most importantly, the will of the Ukrainian soldiers and the population more generally to fight surpasses that of Russia. ...........(more)

https://www.salon.com/2022/10/11/ukraines-victory-almost-a-done-deal-military-expert-on-how-invasion-imploded/

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Experts thought Russia's conquest of Ukraine was a "done deal" until a couple weeks in

Plus, it is important to distinguish between Russia and the Russian people. The latter might want to be less supportive naturally but under their pressure are often profoundly apathetic or fearful.

What Russia does is not decided by the Russians. It is decided by Russians, yes, but only some Russians, a small number.

[Lovie777]

2. Spot on ....

"It is decided by Russians, yes, but only some Russians, a small number"

Russian oligarchs.

Sound similar of the USA doesn't it.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. Putin is самый богатый человек; tRump wants to be Oberster Reicher Mann. . . . nt

[slightlv]

5. The "people" always pay the price

for war, without ever having input into the waging of it. I think it might have been better back in the days of yore, when kings or their stand-ins fought it out with each other to decide the win. I'm of the mind that people are similar to each other the world over. They simply want to live, raise their families; survive and give their children a better life than they, themselves, had. This big picture of fighting over resources and land, etc., or for spite and face-saving is specific to people in each government. Most people have ambition, but their ambition isn't for world domination. Unfortunately, until we can find a way to successfully treat sociopathy and psychopathology, I'm afraid we'll forever be fighting someone else's wars.

[blue-wave]

4. Once Ukraine wins

they need to hang Putin and all the Kremlin lackeys by meat hooks like they did Mussolini.

[lees1975]

6. The Russian military had a tough time in Afghanistan, with many of the same problems.

No real leadership, inferior resources, inability to estimate the ability of the enemy, no plan for fighting a war in a primitive, mountainous country surrounded by enemies. And so, no one could see this coming?

Of course, the US also failed in Afghanistan, not militarily, but in the failed Bush "nation building" experiment attempting to bring democracy to a country that he didn't understand and didn't know enough about to realize that the effort would fail. Trump administered the final blow by negotiating with the Taliban and handing the country back to them.