Analysis: N.Korea leadership struggle would bring wider risks (Reuters)

[pinto]

Analysis: N.Korea leadership struggle would bring wider risks

By Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent
LONDON | Mon Dec 19, 2011 2:03pm EST

(Reuters) - In the short term, international worries over North Korea following the death of Kim Jong-il center on a potential domestic leadership struggle that could heighten the risk of renewed conflict on the peninsula.

In the much longer run, however, the death could also usher in a quite different challenge: the hugely expensive task of reunifying Korea and reintegrating the world's most isolated state into the global economy.

The coming days could be full of distinctly mixed signals. On Monday morning, South Korean media reported the North had test-fired a short-range missile in what looked to be an early example of the sort of saber-rattling that many analysts fear.

All eyes will be on heir apparent Kim Jong-un, to try to gauge whether he can truly take his father's place as undisputed national leader and commander of a military with some 5 million men under arms and perhaps up to eight nuclear warheads.

Many doubt that he can.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/19/us-korea-risks-idUSTRE7BI1FN20111219

[City Lights]

1. Interesting days ahead...

I hope there are more smooth patches than bumps in this road.

[pinto]

2. Agree. Some analysis I hear on cable is more about proliferation (sales) of weapons

than any direct confrontation w / So. Korea. Plus the relative inexperience of Kim Jong-un. I think the background assumption is that the military will likely be the key player. Could be the same as it always was, with Jong-un as a figurehead.

Who knows? Such an isolated and secretive country.

[City Lights]

4. And this morning, the first headline I see when I open MyYahoo is:

"In mourning, hermit kingdom North Korea seals itself off"

[prepperdad]

3. Just one spark

and ignite a global conflict. People are struggling to make ends meet all over the globe. You can see that in the various riot/protest movements cropping up in every country. I fear that a small conflict started by crazies in NK, might be just the excuse needed by TPTB to launch WWIII.

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