Reuter's 2016 Predictions - Stairway To Heaven, Highway To Hell

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http://bvpredictions.com/

INTRODUCTION


It’s the end of the world as we know it – or at least as we’ve known it for the past seven years. The money for nothing that fueled government spending, emerging markets and the allure of risky financial assets will start going the way of disco in 2016 as the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates. For nations and corporations with strong balance sheets, it could be a welcome shift – even a stairway to heaven. For overvalued businesses, profligate governments and high-yield markets, danger lies ahead – perhaps a highway to hell.

That’s the theme of Reuters Breakingviews’ Predictions 2016, a collection of financial insight aimed at giving readers a jump on the year ahead. If the past is any indication, many of the pieces will be pitch-perfect. A year ago we said Deutsche Bank would oust its leaders and accounting fraud would become a top regulatory priority. Bingo. But we also forecast oil at $80 a barrel and a cooling mergers and acquisitions market. Right or wrong, our goal is to offer intelligent and provocative ideas in our typically pithy format.

This year’s book is divided into four classic rock-inspired sections: The Thrill Is Gone, Anticipation, A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall and Won’t Get Fooled Again. In the first category, we are doubling down on our view that mergers and acquisitions have peaked in America. Also look for oil-rich nations like Saudi Arabia to start raiding sovereign wealth funds to pay for social stability.

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