Post-ABC News poll shows Democrats at risk in November as Obama’s approval rating falls

[villager]

Source: Washington Post

Democrats face serious obstacles as they look to the November elections, with President Obama’s approval rating at a new low and a majority of voters saying they prefer a Congress in Republican hands to check the president’s agenda, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Obama’s approval rating fell to 41 percent, down from 46 percent through the first three months of the year and the lowest of his presidency in Post-ABC News polls. Just 42 percent approve of his handling of the economy, 37 percent approve of how he is handling the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and 34 percent approve of his handling of the situation involving Ukraine and Russia.

Obama’s low rating could be a significant drag on Democratic candidates this fall — past elections suggest that when approval ratings are as low as Obama’s, the president’s party is almost certain to suffer at the ballot box in November.

<snip>

The decline in Obama’s approval rating in the most recent poll was the result of lower support among both Democrats and independents. At this point, 74 percent of Democrats say they approve of his job performance, one point higher than his lowest ever in Post-ABC surveys. The worry for Obama and his party is that many of the Democrats who disapprove of Obama’s performance simply won’t show up in November.

Although Obama’s overall approval rating is at its lowest point ever in Post-ABC polls, his disapproval is still a few points better than at its worst. That’s because more people than usual say they had no opinion. At this point, Obama’s approval rating looks only slightly better than that of President George W. Bush in the spring of 2006.

Also, the disapproval of Obama’s handling of the situation with Ukraine and Russia is 46 percent, with 20 percent saying they have no opinion on that — perhaps a sign that Americans see few good policy options for the United States in the standoff.
Some Democratic strategists have argued that their candidates have ample arguments to make against Republicans this fall as they seek to hold down expected losses.

The Post-ABC survey sheds light on what they are. Democrats have a significant advantage on eight issues, from health care to climate change to abortion and same-sex marriage...


Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/post-abc-news-poll-shows-democrats-at-risk-in-november-as-obamas-approval-rating-falls/2014/04/28/2a448b04-cf07-11e3-b812-0c92213941f4_story.html

[chillfactor]

1. an ABC poll...really?

waste of space...

[Spitfire of ATJ]

12. They HAD to do this because other polls show Democrats in the lead.

[roguevalley]

18. ABC is a conservative organization and often stands outside the others

I don't believe this. Obama care is gaining ground. I hear it all around and in months, I have only heard one negative. People are getting it. Psy-Ops. Could be from corporate shills who own the companies. Then again, I could be living in a dream world.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

21. Actually, after RMoney and the buzz about "income inequality" and the best sellers,...looks good.

[muriel_volestrangler]

26. I tihnk you're wrong about that

Looking at the list of recent polls:
Wash Post-ABC (24-27 Apr) registered voters: Dem 45 Rep 44
Fox News (13-15 Apr) registered voters: Dem 41 Rep 44
McClatchy-Marist (7-10 Apr) registered voters: Dem 48 Rep 42
Quinnipac (26-31 Mar) registered voters: Dem 40 Rep 38
CBS (20-23 Mar) registered voters: Dem 39 Rep 39
NPR (19-23 Mar) likely voters: Dem 44 Rep 43
GW Univ (16-20 Mar) likely voters: Dem 43 Rep 43
NBC/WSJ (5-9 Mar) registered voters: Dem 43 Rep 44

This latest poll is in line with others.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

31. They claimed Romney and Obama were neck and neck....

It's all about turnout and I think young people and WOMEN got the message that mid-terms matter.

[muriel_volestrangler]

34. But nevertheless I can only see one poll with a significantly larger Dem lead

This poll is in line with most polls.

Your optimism about young people and women having already got the message looks ill-founded:

Dem poll: Key Obama supporters much less likely to vote in 2014

The poll shows that a group known as the "Rising American Electorate" -- which includes the strongly Democratic blocs of young people, unmarried women and minorities -- is significantly less likely to vote than other voters, who tend to favor Republicans.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/04/08/dem-poll-key-obama-supporters-much-less-likely-to-vote-in-2014/

[Gary Garrison]

35. Poll trutherism is bipartisan

The 1+ Democratic advantage shown in this poll is very close to what most other pollsters have found. And 1+ is way too small an advantage for Democrats to do well. Those who don't like the results cook up conspiracy theories in order to feel better.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

40. There's nothing to cook up. They want a horse race so we will all play the game.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

37. They have been throwing that "likely voters" crap out there for YEARS...

The theory being that Republicans are the "responsible ones" and ALWAYS go to vote but Dems are too into sex and drugs and rock and roll to show up.

There was one pollster during the Bush Years who admitted they throw out responses by Democrats because "they don't show up".

[muriel_volestrangler]

47. But we have a Democratic poll saying the 'RAE' group is less likely to vote

President Obama takes it seriously:

President Obama said at a fundraiser Wednesday night that Democrats suffer in midterm elections in large part because black and Latino voters -- among other groups -- don't turn out to vote.

"Our voters are younger, more unmarried women, more African-American and Latino voters," Obama said at an event in Houston. "They get excited about general elections; they don't get as excited about midterm elections."

Obama added: "...we have this congenital disease, which is in midterm elections we don't vote at the same rates."

Obama's remarks appear to be a pretty clear reference to a poll released earlier in the week that showed these groups -- described by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg as the Rising American Electorate -- are much less keen on voting in 2014 than are other, more Republican demographics.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/04/10/obama-democrats-lose-in-midterms-because-african-americans-latinos-young-people-dont-turn-out-to-vote/

[Spitfire of ATJ]

49. I take it seriously too. My point is the media has a motive to keep it a horse race.

[muriel_volestrangler]

50. So are you saying you think Democrats will win handily in the election?

That we'll take the House?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

51. I'm saying the Beltway is always shocked when we win ANYTHING....

They just love to cling to their fiction.

In this case it's the classic, "This is a 50/50 country".

[muriel_volestrangler]

52. But you claim this poll was only produced to counter polls that showed the Dems in the lead

and despite both of us, and President Obama, taking seriously a poll that says Dem voters are less likely to turn out in this mid-term election, you think the media only talks about it to 'make it a horse race'. So you must think that, in reality, it isn't a 'horse race' - that one party (and you seem to be saying the Dems) will win the 2014 elections easily. I think you are too complacent.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

57. No. I think history has shown the party that's divided loses....

The PROBLEM is their voter suppression is going to artificially inflate their popularity.

[kelliekat44]

64. Yes, but aren't there larger numbers of RAE? 60% of a larger number is more than 60% of a smaller #

[muriel_volestrangler]

65. No, I think the RAE group is under 50% of the total

Consider: of the total, 72% say they're almost certain to vote; 64% of the RAE group (8% less); and 79% of the non-RAE group (7% more). Since the total figure is slightly closer to the non-RAE number than the RAE number, that means the non-RAE group is slightly larger - they affect the total figure slightly more.

[Gary Garrison]

44. The final Washington Poll predicted Obama ahead of Romney by 3%

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121104.html

[Spitfire of ATJ]

46. The way they went on, all us Liberals were crying because Obama wasn't God after all.

[nlkennedy]

2. Hmmm...

We don't have a movement and we are never in lock-step...

We will never compete with the messaging machine and zeal of industry-religious conservatism.

If you think the traditional mechanisms of control are unchangeable, like many educated leftists do, then surely you won't see desired changes in the attitudes of voters who absorb their politics through these systems.

Find a large plot of land and start over. Adopt the production capacities of sacrifice zones and create new societies?

Or let conservatives win elections again and again and again....

[alp227]

3. but it seems many Americans are liberals but don't know it...

Democrats are not without assets as the midterm election campaigns intensify. Americans trust Democrats over Republicans by 40 to 34 percent to handle the country’s main problems. By significant margins, Americans see Democrats as better for the middle class and on women’s issues. Americans favor the Democrats’ positions on raising the minimum wage, same-sex marriage and on the broad issue of dealing with global climate change.

So Americans support Democratic platform positions but are disillusioned with our current political system, thus end up enabling the CONS. Ugh.

[villager]

5. Per the disillusionment:

"...many of the Democrats who disapprove of Obama’s performance simply won’t show up in November."

Since there's no real bully pulpit for these progressive issues that Americans support.

[vi5]

32. Because our politicians don't sell those ideas

They think all they have to do is vote for them and/or nominally support them.

The damage to the word liberal and the Democratic platform as a liberal party is so bad that we need people to actively go out there and be loud and proud about progressive ideas and convince people why they need them and why they are better and to call those ideas progressive and liberal at every turn.

Put in a rougher way, we don't just need people who want to put their fingers into the holes of the leaky dam we need people who want to actively repair the dam.

[Cosmocat]

39. Just idiots

collectively, "us."

[jberryhill]

4. They should have polled people other than DU members

[totodeinhere]

6. Good one. n/t

[Mr.Bill]

7. Yes, they are correct.

There's no way Obama will be re-elected in 2014.

[TexasTowelie]

8. Would somebody pass a grain of salt? nt

[villager]

9. Guess we'll know definitively in a few months, eh?

then we can decide in retrospect which polls were credible, where we were whistling past graveyards, etc...

[elleng]

10. Who the F ???

'voters saying they prefer a Congress in Republican hands to check the president’s agenda.'

[Spitfire of ATJ]

22. This is what happens when white males talk to other white males....

Want a real laugh?

Listen to them offering dating advice to each other.

[trublu992]

11. Whaaattt I've just been reading the opposite. BS maybe?

[QuestForSense]

13. Dubious.

A lot of talk about nothing really, served up by a couple of well-known right-wing republican mouth-organs.

[Turbineguy]

14. Sounds like the standard republican wish

"We're going to win anyway so why not just vote for us instead?"

[Helen Borg]

15. Romney ahead!

...

[rpannier]

16. You aren't happy with Rmoney's first two years in office?

/sarcasm

[bluestateguy]

17. The election is over. Obama won. Romney lost.

[blkmusclmachine]

19. "Third Way" must be dancing in the streets. Good news for them.

[snot]

20. Anyone besides me TIRED of "Dem" excuses??

How far did we think we could afford to let the 1% consolidate their control over ABC and other traditional news media, before it would take devastating effect??

Who (the h*ll!?!??) did Obama appoint as head of the FCC, who's resisting every opportunity to maintain the internet as any kind of alternative news source?!!??!!!

(Are we not morons?)

The developments in the area of media control during the last 4 decades are among those that make it most difficult for me to place any faith at all in current "Dem" leadership. How many time does one have to have one's skull smashed in before one realizes, maybe one shouldn't keep giving ever-greater control over hammers to that psychopath over there?

[vi5]

33. I'm beyond tired (n/t)

[rpannier]

23. Regardless of whether the polls are accurate

It's important to be vigilant. Polls shift and opinions by the electorate change all the time. These elections shouldn't hinge on Obama, but if the people who turn out want curbs on Obama then the Dems will do poorly.
Most of the polls I've seen look favorable for Dems. But it's April and public mood shifts.
Thanks for posting. Best to be informed and alert than complacent and arrogant

[snot]

24. Maybe if Dem politicians worried more about what might actually help most voters . . . .

[RBInMaine]

30. Not happy? Then go run for office yourself and do better. Otherwise, enough of that TeaLeftery.

[dotymed]

42. Yes, sadly

none of these posts reflect the real problem.
Most politicians of "both" parties only represent the 1%.
I am tired of holding my nose while voting. It is all a racket.
If the Democrats would forgo the money and represent the majority it would be a landslide.
As it stands, no matter what the candidates promise, we all know the outcome.
"our" only advantage is that we know that the R's are less majority oriented, it can't last long.

[JoePhilly]

43. You mean like getting around 9 million people heath care coverage?

[NYC Liberal]

74. Maybe if those voters showed up, we wouldn't have politicians

who don't care.

[leftyohiolib]

83. yup that's it right there

[mfcorey1]

25. This is a bunch of crap. Forget the polls and full speed ahead. Mental

intimidation for Democratic candidates is all that this is.

[Botany]

27. ABC = Disney = ESPN = Home Depot = pushing the right wing propaganda

Last edited Tue Apr 29, 2014, 07:25 AM - Edit history (1)

not buying it

Dem Poll: Support for Implementing Obamacare Rises in Battlegrounds

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014790443

[leftyohiolib]

28. right and kkkarl rove said ohio was for romney -ignore the polls and just vote

[Gary Garrison]

72. Karl Rove is not a poll

He is a person pretending that his favorite candidates was ahead.

[leftyohiolib]

75. and that's what abc is doing which was my point

[Gary Garrison]

76. Did ABC and Washington Post engage in such conspiracy in the past?

Or are they just beginning?

[leftyohiolib]

78. you tell me

[Gary Garrison]

79. Not that I know of. Enlighten us

Please.

[leftyohiolib]

80. who's us

[Gary Garrison]

81. Readers of this thread

We wait impatiently to hear evidence of ABC/WaPo conspiracy to make stuff up in the past.

[leftyohiolib]

82. apparently you are the only one who cares

[RBInMaine]

29. BULLSHIT corporate media PROPAGANDA when most other polls show good news for Dems.

[onenote]

36. Which polls?

[Gary Garrison]

38. Can anyone be specific as to what "most other polls" are saying?

?

[kelliekat44]

41. After Sterlings remarks played all over the media they (the media) have to find a way to

take it out on Obama. The part about black treatment in Israel is huge news that must be overshadowed by whatever they can throw out against Obama...this makes the GOP feel better about themselves.

[Helen Borg]

45. I was thinking...

As corporate money buys everything, what prevents some of the polling companies to flat out start making up data? Not even by using skewed questions, but simply fabricating it, after studying the ideal poll outcome that would be more likely to change voters attitudes etc. Would it be a crime to do so? Who would be able to verify? Serious question.
Anyone?

[brooklynite]

48. How dare someone publish a poll that disagrees with my personal opinion!

[bigdarryl]

53. KOS Mark Molissa said last week that we are six points ahead in the generic Congressional polling

He is a data driven guy he's on with Mark Thompson every Thursday.I'll take his word over ABC Mark will tell you if the democrats are doing bad in the polling when he see's it.Like when Wendy Davis announced she was running for Governor of Texas he came right out and said the numbers look bad for her to when the Governorship in Texas

[Gary Garrison]

73. Can you quote Kos?

I assume you are saying that Kos said that one poll (1) found Democrats ahead by 6%.

[EC]

54. Those questions were worded for

negative responses. It lets me know the leaning of Washington Post and ABC even more clearly now though. They really had to strive to use the wording they did. "The implementation of" give me a break.

[Trust Buster]

55. You are all missing the larger point.

This throws cold water on a particular narrative that bounces around this site. Specifically, that the time will be ripe in 2016 to run a candidate that tacks farther to the left like Warren or Sanders. Regardless of polls, we do know that it will be a touch and go situation this fall. How can an electorate be ready for a Warren or Sanders in 2016 when we have to hold our breath in 2014 despite Republican obstructionism ? You are miscalculating the mood of the country big time. Hillary remains the common sense choice for those who think with their heads instead of their hearts.

[raindaddy]

60. The larger point?

The larger point is that the we're living under a political system that has been hijacked by corporations and banks. The electorate understands that their quality of life is diminishing, they don't have the solutions and want leaders who do. The Republican poll numbers are even worse than the Democrats. Congress is at 13%, what we're really seeing is a lack of confidence in the system. People know it's broken and they don't know how to fix it.

It's way past time to drop liberal and conservative labels, the media has rendered them as useless as Socialist and Capitalist. We need people who aren't insiders. Anyone else getting tired of the insider political dynasties? We're actually seeing a media resurrection of another Bush presidential run even though Poppy was a failure and G.W. was a catastrophe.

We need leaders who aren't part of the problem, have the desire and the courage to point out the level of corruption that has undermined our Democratic Republic and push for real solutions...The majority of Americans are more than ready to support a candidate they feel places THEIR interests above the 1%.. They displayed that when they voted twice for a "liberal populist" black man.

[liberal N proud]

56. Isn't it funny how they come out with this poll as the ACA is gaining acceptance

And the republicans have nothing left to fight it on.



PROPAGANDA machine rolls on in America.

[brooklynite]

58. Right...polls NEVER come out months before an election.

Seriously, while ACA has gotten on its feet, its not that popular, and Democratic candidates are still struggling (I know - I've talked to most of them). And the media does polls because they like to focus on the horse race aspect.

[Blue Owl]

59. Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuure...

Why if ABCNNBCBS says so, it must be real...

[Omaha Steve]

61. UUUUMMMM

The same poll says Romney won!!!

[Phlem]

62. Lots of media outlets try to frame the situation

before the event. Don't fall for it.

-p

[DCBob]

63. Headline misleading.. see this buried at the bottom of the article..

"Democrats have a significant advantage on eight issues, from health care to climate change to abortion and same-sex marriage. Democrats have a smaller advantage on immigration, and the two parties are roughly equal on the economy. Republicans have the edge on three — guns, the deficit and striking the right balance on which government programs to cut.

Where Democrats have the biggest advantages are on the same contrasts that helped Obama win reelection in 2012 — indicators of which party voters believe is on their side. By 52 to 32 percent, those surveyed say they trust Democrats to do a better job helping the middle class, and by 55 to 25 percent, they trust Democrats on issues that are especially important to women."

Sounds like Democrats are in fine shape. My biggest concern is that Obama might not get reelected.

[villager]

69. Not really in fine shape if they can't get their voters to come out, per today's Harvard Institute

poll:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014791181

[DCBob]

84. Not sure what its going to take to get folks to get off their butts and vote.

I think many don't realize how ugly it can get if the Rethugs take over the Senate.

[Dawson Leery]

66. Not only has ABC had historically junk for shows, they have junk for polling too.

Last edited Tue Apr 29, 2014, 01:48 PM - Edit history (1)

How can it be that Democrats are behind, yet they lead on the major issues?

[Gary Garrison]

71. Democrats are not "behind" in that poll

They are ahead by 1%.

[Ivywoods55]

67. Whatever...

[rocktivity]

68. Newsflash, ABC

It's nearly May, not October.

"Get thee beyond me, polls! Unclean! UNCLEAN!!!"




rocktivity

[no_hypocrisy]

70. "A Congress in Republican hands to check the president’s agenda"???

What Obama agenda? Existing republicans have blocked or frustrated everything Obama's tried to do so far.

If that were true then we'd have single payer health care, not the Affordable Care Act. There would be a non-conservative judge on the Bench to replace Ginsberg, maybe more than one judge. Don Siegelman would have been pardoned and apologized to. Restoration of unemployment insurance. A jobs program. Etc. Etc.

[upaloopa]

77. The next poll will say the opposite

I think let week the generic Dem beat the generic Repub

[toddwv]

85. Strange...

I read the article which starts off "Democrats face serious obstacles as they look to the November elections, with President Obama’s approval rating at a new low," yet when I try to look at the historic data (provided in the Detailed View of the poll link), there is only the single data point.

[NorthCarolina]

86. I think Obama's appointment of Tom Wheeler to the FCC has probably

helped to tarnish his armor some recently. News of FCC plans for a tiered internet has been flying through the Twitterverse and likely Facebook (I don't have a Facebook account so can't be sure, but I suspect it's a pretty safe bet) for the past week. How important is an open and free internet to the young voters? I'm sure our third-way interlopers currently pushing this clamp down on internet freedom in the name of heavenly profits poo-poo any potential impact from their actions, but then again...when have any of them actually been right?

[villager]

87. People on this very site poo-poo the possibility that any of this could "turn off" voters

Per the Harvard Institute poll released this morning, it's hard for young voters, at least, to figure out what they'd be voting for...

[NorthCarolina]

88. It's hard for ANYONE to figure out what they're voting for. How many voters in 08

thought they were voting for a Liberal when they cast a ballot for Obama? The third-way practice of campaigning left and governing right can only be played so many times before they lose all credibility. I think we're there now.

[raindaddy]

89. So true,

And the Republicans do a great job perpetuating the myth, Obama the Socialist, etc....

[BlueStater]

90. Well,...

...if enough Americans are actually such fucking morons as to put a pack of obstructionist, crybaby assholes back into power, it's hard to feel much sympathy for them. Too bad the rest of us will have to pay the price of their stupidity.

[mvd]

91. Seems like noise.

The ACA's popularity gain is the biggest story.