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Tue Mar 26, 2013, 01:36 PM

South Carolina special a toss up

Source: Public Policy Polling

PPP's first look at the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a toss up race. Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch leads Republican Mark Sanford 47-45 and ties Curtis Bostic at 43.

This is a Republican leaning district and Barack Obama's approval rating in it is only 41% with 57% of voters disapproving of him. But Democrats are far more unified than the Republicans are. Busch is winning 87-89% of the Democratic vote while Sanford (76%) and Bostic (72%) are both earning less than 80% of the GOP vote. Busch is also up by 16-18 points with independent voters.

Sanford remains a strong favorite for the Republican nomination heading into next week's runoff. He leads Bostic 53/40. The horse race numbers closely mirror his favorability with GOP voters- 55% see him positively to 40% with a negative opinion. If there's a silver lining for Bostic it's that he still has a name recognition deficit- 77% of voters have heard of him to 95% for Sanford- and among voters who are familiar with him he trails Sanford only 49/46. That suggests some possibility of closing as voters focus in on the choice between the two in the final weeks, but Bostic may just not have enough time.

Focusing in on the potential race between Busch and Sanford it's surprisingly close for one simple reason- voters like Busch and they continue to strongly dislike Sanford. 45% of voters see Busch favorably to only 31% with a negative opinion. On the other hand Sanford is still stuck with a 34% favorability rating and 58% of voters seeing him in a negative light.

Read more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/03/ppps-first-look-at-the-special-election-in-south-carolinas-1st-congressional-district-finds-a-toss-up-race-democrat-elizabet.html

Okay, I will acknowledge that I had severe doubts about this race. When I met with Elizabeth (and Steven), I said that I thought this race would be a stretch because 1) its heavily Republican, and 2) its an off-season by-election which tends to bring out only the activist voters, which are more likely to be conservative. However, I said that my habit was to monitor races and to re-evaluate my support when I saw progress. I'm going to need to re-evaluate my support.

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Reply South Carolina special a toss up (Original post)
brooklynite Mar 2013 OP
mike978 Mar 2013 #1
1ProudAtheist Mar 2013 #2

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Mar 26, 2013, 02:26 PM

1. Fantastic news


I look forward to Stephen's "better know a district" segment when he profiles his sister!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Mar 26, 2013, 02:53 PM

2. This Is MY District,


and I do vote. There are a ton of those here who despise Sanford for his Argentinian Tail hikes, and his blatant disrespect for his wife and children. I am hoping beyond hope, that he wins the runoff and is the repuke candidate. Finally getting a Democratic Representative in Washington would fulfill my lifelong dream. I live in an area that was redistricted after the last census, and was forced to suffer through the indignities of being represented by Jugghead Joe Wilson. Despite his continual lying and being called for it, his big money machine campaign somehow managed to buy him his seat in congress. Let me just say it this way...............I will be voting for Ms. Busch in the runoff no matter who the racist bigots wind up putting on the ballot against her.

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