China records first population decline in 60 years

[riversedge]

Source: cnn




Updated 1:50 AM EST, Tue January 17, 2023
 

China’s population shrank in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years, a new milestone in the country’s deepening demographic crisis with significant implications for its slowing economy.

The population fell in 2022 to 1.411 billion, down some 850,000 people from the previous year, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced during a Tuesday briefing on annual data.

Analysts said the decline was the first since 1961 during the great famine triggered by former leader Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward.

......................

The birth rate also fell to a record low of 6.77 births per 1,000, down from 7.52 a year earlier and the lowest level since the founding of Communist China in 1949. Some 9.56 million babies were born, compared with 10.62 million in 2021 – despite a push from the government to encourage more married couples to have children.

The new data came alongside the announcement of one of China’s worst annual economic performances in nearly half a century, with the economy expanding by just 3% for the year – far below the government’s target – underscoring the steep economic challenges the country faces as its labor force shrinks and its retired demographic grows.
..................

..............

Addressing demographic challenges has remained a top political priority, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping pledging to “improve the population development strategy” and ease economic pressure on families during a key speech at the start of China’s five-yearly Party Congress in October.

“[We will] establish a policy system to boost birth rates, and bring down the costs of pregnancy and childbirth, child rearing, and schooling,” Xi said.
..............................................................

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/16/economy/china-population-decline-sixty-years-intl-hnk?utm_source=business_ribbon

[TexasTowelie]

1. Chinese schools over-reported their student populations for years in order to receive more

government funding. Most of the overcount was of females so now the absence of those females is resulting in lower population growth. This obviously moves forward the date that India overtakes China in population.

[SunSeeker]

2. This is good news for the planet. nt

[Crowman2009]

3. I think working people to death and having poor air quality has something do to with it.

Not gonna be in the mood to conceive when you're working all the time and can't breathe.

[AZLD4Candidate]

6. Chinese families are small too. one or two children as well

Also, women are now putting off marriage. Before, the average marriage age was around 22 for women and 25 for men. Now it's closer to 27 for women and 28 for men.

It isn't all pollution and working conditions. My wife and I have been married for ten years and have no children yet.

[Rhiannon12866]

4. Covid?

Rachel Maddow reported on this tonight.

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. They have to decide if they will tolerate immigration

and make themselves an attractive enough place that people with a choice will choose them. There's plenty of babies and young people in the world; a rebalancing of age profiles through migration would be a good thing.

Their population pyramid isn't great:

https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2022/

but it's not as sparse at the bottom as some (eg Germany, Italy, Japan or the Republic of Korea). Germany has a sensible attitude to immigration, and I think will be OK (and its lower age groups aren't that small anyway - they just have a bulge around their late 50s which will need more health and social care in a decade or two). The others need to rethink.

[GB_RN]

7. Speaking Of Healthcare Crises...

The Chinese have more smokers (estimated at more than 350 million back in 2012) than we have total population. They are going to have a lot of people with lung disease and cancer in the next few years. And that’s before you get into dealing with lung/heart issues caused from all the air pollution from their coal-fired power plants.

[peppertree]

8. Great link, Muriel. According to that, India is, as of this year, now the world's most populous (!)

https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2023/

To think that Gandhi pointed out, around 100 years ago, that "Britain can't control 350 million Indians, if those 350 million refuse to co-operate."

Now, it's 1.43 million - and Modi's finding it no easier himself.

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. Yep, could be already - it's hard to tell, also with Covid having delayed the Indian census

Last summer, the United Nations projected that India would take the No. 1 position at some point before the middle of 2023.

The United Nations’ estimates for the end of 2022 still put China in first place, giving China 1.426 billion people and India 1.422 billion. The UN forecast that the two countries would have switched places by July 1, as India grows to 1.429 billion and China holds steady at 1.426 billion.

Yet the 2022 population China reported on Tuesday suggests a faster rate of decline than the UN expected. The UN’s model projected a drop of 76,000. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population instead shrunk by 850,000 to 1.416 billion.

A larger-than-projected decline narrows the gap between China and India’s populations, raising the possibility that India has already overtaken China in size.

https://fortune.com/2023/01/17/india-china-population-decline-worlds-most-populous-country/

That possibly makes India the world's most populous nation. U.N. experts predicted last year India would have a population of 1.412 billion in 2022 though they did not expect the South Asian nation to overtake China until this year.

India, however, only collects population figures every 10 years and its latest census, originally scheduled for 2021, has been delayed due to the pandemic.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-shrinks-first-time-since-1961-2023-01-17/

[peppertree]

10. Also, India doesn't publish reliable birth/death data - which makes yearly updates tricky

Their data is considered partly complete by the UN.

But how much is 'partly', in a country of nearly 1.5 billion?