Russia's Donbas offensive has made little progress in fierce combat, Western officials and analysts

[brooklynite]

Source: New York Times

The clenched fist of military forces that Russia mustered in eastern Ukraine appears to be losing some of its punch, with the effort to capture all of the Donbas region stalling, according to a senior Pentagon official and other military analysts.

The Russian offensive seems to be several days behind schedule, the Pentagon official said on Friday. It is facing stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces and suffering from some of the same problems with logistics and low troop morale that have plagued the Russian military since it launched a sweeping invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, the official said.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/29/world/ukraine-russia-war-news/ukraine-russia-donbas-offensive?smid=url-copy

[empedocles]

1. Good to know

[maxsolomon]

3. i don't see how we'd know - daily satellite assessment by the US govt?

UDF press releases?

i believe the low troop morale. what besides fear would drive them?

[The Unmitigated Gall]

2. Wait till those M-777's all go to work.

[Warpy]

4. Nope, enough weaponry has gotten to Ukraine that Russia is stymied

exactly the way they've been bogged down in the city of Donetsk for the last 8 years.

One wonders what will happen when the training is done and the rest of the stuff moves forward. Will Putin throw in the towel or will he keep throwing hapless conscripts at it until Russia is totally worn down? Or will a Russian patriot end Putin? It's certainly been done before.

Putin is discovering the hard way that buying loyalty by letting his cronies strip the country of its exported minerals and energy was a less wise course than reinvesting the profits in Russia, developing their own electronics industry, upgrading their military, and raising the standard of living. He'd be in a much stronger position had he done that.

Ukraine can thank its good fortune that he's such a small, venal man.

[paleotn]

5. At current intensity, the Russians won't ever make any progress....

With the Lend Lease bill that just passed, theoretically Ukraine now has unlimited military resources. Russia most certainly does not. Ball in Putin's court.

[oldsoftie]

7. Good point. UKR doesnt need "production" if arms constantly flow in.

Meanwhile Russia has to supply ALL of their materials.

[DallasNE]

6. With The News Coming Out Of Ukraine

And the bluster coming from Putin over his new missile capable of carrying 10 nuclear warheads why is the media not bringing up Trump's pullout of the nuclear agreement with Russia that opened this door. It seems rather remiss to me.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49198565

[Igel]

10. That treaty had problems before Jan. 2017.

It was an open secret that Russia was violating it.

Pulling out of the treaty did two things. It let Russia be open about it--it was simply *amazing* how quickly they managed to squeeze many years of research and development into a few months, according to those who insisted that the open secret wasn't really factual.

It officially gave the US permission to do things that Russia didn't like.

It actually did three things. The third isn't on the radar of most commentators. The treaty limited both the US and Russia to certain limits in specific types of nuclear weapons. That was fine when China wasn't a player. But in the last few years China's been upping the ante by producing (and positioning) that type of weapons. Except that the treaty the US signed with the Russians (or Soviets, whatever the vintage of the treaty) limited the US's response to China. You're allowed X number of these things, that's it--if you have a decent balance with Russia and China adds 10k on their side, you're still allowed X number. So you move them away from Russia, so Russia has dominance, or you pretend China's doesn't exist.

I hope that if there is a re-do of the treaty it allows for responding to China. Or, perhaps, other hostile nuclear actors, sure to proliferate in the next decade as unreasonable countries realize that only by having nuclear weapons as a deterrence against reasonable countries can they really act the uebermensch.

[DallasNE]

11. I Was Well Aware That Russia Was Cheating

So, I wasn't saying do nothing. The treaty had provisions for on-site inspections so it seemed to me that negotiations to shore up the treaty would have been the first step. If Putin would not cooperate the option to walk away from the treaty would have still been available. Also, Trump did nothing to counter what Russia was doing and that has put us at risk. Trump played right into Putin's hand.

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

8. Soviet-Afghan War, February 1989

Those who fail to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.

[ck4829]

12. Kick