Ukrainian President Zelensky says NATO's Article 5 "has never been as weak as it is now"
Source: CNN
In an address on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his call to close Ukrainian airspace after a night of air alarms heard "almost all over" the country.
"Each of the more than 800 Russian missiles that have hit our country is an answer to a long-standing question about NATO whether the doors of the alliance are really open for Ukraine," Zelensky said while speaking from his office Tuesday afternoon. "If they were open, if it was honest, we would not have to convince the alliance for 20 days to close the skies over Ukraine, to close from the death being brought by the Russian Air Force. But ...they don't hear or don't want to hear us yet."
He went on to call out NATO's Article 5, the principle of collective defense, "weak" as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues.
"Some states of alliance have intimidated themselves, saying that they can't answer. That they cannot collide with Russian missiles and planes in the Ukrainian sky. Because this, they say, will lead to escalation, will lead to the Third World War.
And what will they say if Russia goes further to Europe, attacking other countries? I am sure the same thing they say to Ukraine. Article 5 of the NATO treaty has never been as weak as it is now. This is just our opinion," he said.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-15-22/h_d9b893d94a3533f0d79d3d7447cd64d1
Chainfire
(17,708 posts)I don't know, but I sort of doubt it. The next question is, are the long range missiles being launched from outside of Ukraine's borders?
In other words, does Zelensky expect NATO jets to attack Russian sites inside of Russia? I don't know the nuts and bolts of the missile issue.
William Seger
(10,788 posts)Cruise missiles are basically jets themselves, and they aren't very maneuverable and don't shoot back, so it's easier than shooting down a fighter.
Chainfire
(17,708 posts)William Seger
(10,788 posts)That's what they used to attack the airbase near Poland, because of the distance, but it appears they are doing a lot of damage with shorter-range rockets, artillery, and tanks wherever they can get close to cities.
BlueTsunami2018
(3,507 posts)If Putin hits a NATO country, NATO responds. We simply cannot do what he wants in this current situation.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)NATO is being held back by the fear that Putin might use nukes if they become involved militarily in Ukraine.
That same fear will exist when Putin moves to seize the tiny Baltic states. That fear, unless overcome, will reveal, once and for all, how meaningless Article Five is, just as Putin has long planned.
Zelenskyy is right.
onecaliberal
(32,961 posts)BlueTsunami2018
(3,507 posts)There will come a time when Pootys bluff will have to be called and well either all be dead or well kick their asses. Most likely dead because he cant win that kind of war.
Its a shit situation but it is what it is. I certainly dont want a world war that ends in nuclear holocaust.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)That is why NATO hasnt intervened militarily in Ukraine, NOT because Ukraine isnt a member of NATO.
Unless that fear is overcome, Putin will eventually take the Baltics if he remains in power after completing the Ukraine genocide.
BlueTsunami2018
(3,507 posts)Are you saying he wont? If he has nothing to lose why not take everyone with him?
Im not willing to risk that. And neither are the leaders of the western world.
Im not sure genocide is the proper term for what hes doing. These are heinous actions and war crimes but Im not sure the goal is to wipe out the entirety of the Ukrainian population. Not any more than our similar actions in Iraq were genocidal.
Response to BlueTsunami2018 (Reply #48)
Post removed
mathematic
(1,440 posts)Iraq is still a nation, the iraqis are still a people. At no point was there a US program to eradicate either. A government is not a nation.
PSPS
(13,627 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)The Baltics will be given up in a matter of days, if not hours.
PSPS
(13,627 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)PSPS
(13,627 posts)Personally, I think NATO is handling this the best (really, the only) way it can. If/when NATO becomes involved, it has to be, both actually and perceived, as a defensive act. Once NATO gets involved outside its prescribed charter, it will become, both actually and perceived, an aggressor. And that would be the end of NATO.
NickB79
(19,280 posts)That NATO didn't intervene in.
North Korea has starved MILLIONS in the past 20 years. Who's all for NATO invading North Korea?
How about Myanmar and their genocide against minorities?
NATO isn't a morality issue. It's one of military defense against attacks. And that's just it: NATO is a DEFENSE pact. Not offence. NATO members don't strike first.
The UN is the world's defense against genocide, not NATO.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)James48
(4,444 posts)And, unfortunately, Ukraine is not.
We should have admitted Ukraine before, but NATO did not. So no, its not a proper question. NATOs mission is defense of its member states, NOT as the worlds peacekeeper.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)If NATO wont get involved militarily to stop the Ukraine genocide, for fear that Putin will use nukes, it sure as hell isnt going to come to the aid of the Baltic states when Putin moves on them, regardless of article 5.
That same fear of Putins nukes will exist in any potential military conflict with Russia, regardless of a piece of paper called article 5. That fear has stopped NATOs involvement at present, and unless overcome, will stop NATOs response when (not if) Putin moves on a NATO country.
As long as Putin is in power, the chance he might use nukes exists. NATOs focus should be on accelerating Putins downfall, not avoiding military confrontation with him.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)What is Russia going to attack the Baltics with? Syrians?
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)It's weird you think NATO is so weak and Russia is so strong.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)If it wasnt for Biden and Blinkens leadership, NATO wouldnt have done half of what they have, other than accepting refugees,
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)They are going above and beyond for Ukraine.
NickB79
(19,280 posts)Just as soon as I get tired of dating Scarlett Johansson 🤣
Seriously, Russia is NEVER going to catch it's breath enough to pivot to the Baltics, because there is no scenario where they succeed in Ukraine. They'd need their entire military deployed for years, at a staggering cost in both rubles, equipment and Russian lives.
Russia's military has been shown to be a paper tiger, and every day Ukrainians tear a little more off of it. At home, the sanctions are going to cripple the Russian economy for years to come. And taking key cities like Kyiv won't change that. The Ukrainians are in for the long haul.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)His dream of occupying and controlling Ukraine his been shattered, so he will accept death and destruction in its place.
drray23
(7,638 posts)I posted the same kind of argument a few days ago and was lambasted with "article 5", "get a grip" and so on by people who did not think it through.
Article 5 does not magically trigger a launch of troops, commanders and in the case of the USA, our congress still has to order it. If we now fear the possibility of a nuclear war, we certainly will if Putin later on invades a small nato country like Latvia. There will be enormous pressure to not start ww3 with the same arguments we hear now, treaty or not.
TomWilm
(1,832 posts)Statements like this works very well on Facebook, and might be fine for solidifying his support in the general population - it seems like he has a point, and are really fighting. But it is rubbish.
No one in NATO with real power can or will follow such silly ideas, and I hope he knows this, and are just making theater. Both before the war, and now, Joe Biden and NATO has defined that as a red line, which will not be passed.
Article 5 of the NATO treaty was never meant to be an automated response after an attack either - the United States Senate blocked that idea in 1947 - leaving it up to Congress to decide whether war was necessary. As an example Turkey's demands of Article 5 help after Syrian attacks has been rejected several times.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)PSPS
(13,627 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)PSPS
(13,627 posts)If NATO starts shooting down russian planes that are invading a non-NATO nation, NATO will be the aggressor. I don't support that and, thankfully, the adults in charge of NATO don't either.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)There is no way he's stupid enough to attack NATO with 55% of his ground forces already committed in a failed quagmire against a weaker neighbor.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)He may withdraw at some point to speed the lifting of sanctions (the west doesnt have the stamina to sustain them much past summer anyway), but if he remains in power, he may take a few years to recover from this escapade, and then he moves on the Baltics.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)Most of his ground forces are stuck in the mud. He can't get food or fuel to his soldiers. He's bringing in Syrians and mercenaries because it is going so badly for him.
Russia does not have the military power to invade the Baltics. Putin doesn't have the power to order it.
Polybius
(15,514 posts)I'll enjoy my Summers before the nuke war.
DallasNE
(7,404 posts)Why else would he be asking Syria for 15,000 troops (that would leave Syria vulnerable) and China for equipment that would likely bring sanctions on China. Putin does not appear to be stable right now, so caution is in order.
Lastly, Russia may no longer be in a position to start a wider, non-nuclear war, even against one of the Baltic states. And new arms are on the way to knock out the artillery that is causing so much trouble right now with the civilian targets. Indeed, Putin may be a dead man walking.
PSPS
(13,627 posts)PSPS
(13,627 posts)Like everyone else, this sickens me. But it's still a matter of his trying to ensnare NATO into something it was never intended to do. It's a mutual-defense organization. If it goes out to engage in battle over a non-NATO state, it becomes a "rogue aggressor" little different than russia.
DallasNE
(7,404 posts)It is Ukraine. He is showing his people that he is fighting for them and to keep up their morale. Let's not make too much of this, at least for now let's cut him some slack.
PSPS
(13,627 posts)If he starts bashing the US and NATO, it will turn public opinion against him and Ukraine.
Polybius
(15,514 posts)He doesn't care about a nuke war.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)Not sure what is weak about it.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)The same will happen with the Baltics, unless NATOs collective fear of the possibility that Putin might use nukes (and that his orders would be obeyed) can be overcome.
Putin should fear the possibility that NATO might use nukes, not the other way around.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)NATO air, sea, and ground forces would easily overwhelm the air, sea, and ground forces of Russia.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)Hint: its not because Ukraine isnt a NATO member. If Russia didnt have nukes, NATO/UN would have already stopped this genocide.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)Rule V is only for NATO members.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)Article 5 will not save the Baltics.
If NATO is afraid of Putins nukes with Ukraine, they sure as hell will be too terrified of his nukes to defend the tiny Baltic states.
Putin should fear NATOs nukes, but unfortunately, its the other way around.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)bluewater
(5,376 posts)Boy, honestly, it's important to not be spreading wrong information, especially regarding NATO and US policy on the first use of nuclear weapons:
During the Cold War and even today, the credible threat of the United States using its nuclear weapons first against an adversary has been an important component of reassuring allies.
At the height of the Cold War, the threat of U.S. tactical nuclear use was conceived of as a critical bulwark against a conventional Soviet offensive through the Fulda Gap, a strategically significant lowland corridor in Germany that would allow Warsaw Pact forces to enter Western Europe.
A nuclear first-use policy was thought to be a cornerstone of the defensive posture of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), given the large number of bases of Warsaw Pact conventional military forces.
Accordingly, NATO has always opposed a U.S. NFU declaration and has never ruled out U.S. first use under its flexible response posture since 1967. Today, U.S. allies in East Asia and Europe alike rely on credible commitments from the United States to use nuclear weapons first to deter major nonnuclear threats against them.
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/no-first-use-and-nuclear-weapons
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)Additionally, instead of stalking me, perhaps you should read the complete sub-threads I am posting in so you get context.
Apology accepted.
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Again here is the STATED US and NATO policy on the first use of nuclear weapons from the respected Council On Foreign Relations site:
During the Cold War and even today, the credible threat of the United States using its nuclear weapons first against an adversary has been an important component of reassuring allies.
At the height of the Cold War, the threat of U.S. tactical nuclear use was conceived of as a critical bulwark against a conventional Soviet offensive through the Fulda Gap, a strategically significant lowland corridor in Germany that would allow Warsaw Pact forces to enter Western Europe.
A nuclear first-use policy was thought to be a cornerstone of the defensive posture of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), given the large number of bases of Warsaw Pact conventional military forces.
Accordingly, NATO has always opposed a U.S. NFU declaration and has never ruled out U.S. first use under its flexible response posture since 1967. Today, U.S. allies in East Asia and Europe alike rely on credible commitments from the United States to use nuclear weapons first to deter major nonnuclear threats against them.
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/no-first-use-and-nuclear-weapons
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)You really need to read before responding.
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Again,
Korea
Viet Nam
Iraq
Afghanistan
In fact it's harder to find a time period when the US has not "gone to war" since WWII.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)As you pointed out in a failed attempt to smear me, we have had numerous military conflicts in between those without a formal declaration of war. That was the point I was making.
What part of that do you disagree with?
The First response from NATO shouldn't always be "We are gong to nuke you."
What part of that do you disagree with?
bluewater
(5,376 posts)That didn't cause it either. There is a big difference between an attack and an incident, I would argue.
We haven't gone to war since WWII. Flexibility exists on our military use outside an official declaration.
If ignorance was painful, the Tea Party would support health care.
Bold emphasis added for clarity.
No mention of "declared" wars in "We haven't gone to war since WWII", is there? Nope.
And "Flexibility exists on our military use outside an official declaration", absolutely, we have "gone to war" repeatedly without official declarations.
So, "We haven't gone to war since WWII" is simply a huge mis-statement.
We have "gone to war" in a major way in the :
Korean WAR
Viet Nam WAR
Iraq WAR, twice
Afghanistan WAR
Along with numerous smaller scale combats around the world.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)Apology accepted.
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)Instead you decided to ride the troll train and obfuscate my point.
Its really weird behavior that could have been avoided through reading the thread.
I guess its easier to double-down on your mistake than to read for clarity. Its too bad.
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Perhaps you could re-phrase it here without mis-statements and oblique references to other posts.
That would be helpful.
My point has been simple.
The statement "We haven't gone to war since WWII" is factually incorrect since we engaged in the Korean War, the Viet Nam War, the Iraq War (twice) and the Afghanistan War.
So again, what exactly is your point and why do you insist I am making the same one?
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)1) The US has been in many engagements without the use of a congressional declaration of war which was last done in the 1940s.
2) NATOs first reaction shouldnt default to nukes.
I look forward to your twisting of these two statements to mean something other than what they say.
bluewater
(5,376 posts)In addition Article 5 can never override the Constitution which says only Congress can declare war. There is nothing automatic about it.
But let's address your points individually, for clarity:
2) NATOs first reaction shouldnt default to nukes.
Point 1 - The US has been in many engagements without the use of a congressional declaration of war which was last done in the 1940s:
OK, this seems a bit of a non sequitur.
Are you disagreeing with the post you replied to here? The poster's opinion is that there is nothing automatic about Article V initiating US military involvement even when requested by a NATO member country?
You even present an "incident" where you said an attack on US planes didn't trigger Article V either.
So, what exactly was your point vis a vis Article V?
Point 2 - NATOs first reaction shouldnt default to nukes.:
OK, I do not see any mention of NATO using nuclear weapons at all in that post, the infamous post #30.
In fact, in your reply to that post, I do not see any mention of nuclear weapons either:
That didn't cause it either. There is a big difference between an attack and an incident, I would argue.
We haven't gone to war since WWII. Flexibility exists on our military use outside an official declaration.
If ignorance was painful, the Tea Party would support health care.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)Im done here.
Your inability to read for understanding and desire for trolling really make my du experience less than it could be.
Bye now.
bluewater
(5,376 posts)You have chosen not to answer any questions I had about your "clear points", which, honestly, still do not seem that clear or clearly made.
Fine.
And honestly, I have not forgotten my point, that you made a factual misstatement when you claimed "We haven't gone to war since WWII".
But, enjoy your evening.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,693 posts)He clearly isnt afraid they will now.
bluewater
(5,376 posts)here is the STATED US and NATO policy on the first use of nuclear weapons from the respected Council On Foreign Relations site:
During the Cold War and even today, the credible threat of the United States using its nuclear weapons first against an adversary has been an important component of reassuring allies.
At the height of the Cold War, the threat of U.S. tactical nuclear use was conceived of as a critical bulwark against a conventional Soviet offensive through the Fulda Gap, a strategically significant lowland corridor in Germany that would allow Warsaw Pact forces to enter Western Europe.
A nuclear first-use policy was thought to be a cornerstone of the defensive posture of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), given the large number of bases of Warsaw Pact conventional military forces.
Accordingly, NATO has always opposed a U.S. NFU declaration and has never ruled out U.S. first use under its flexible response posture since 1967. Today, U.S. allies in East Asia and Europe alike rely on credible commitments from the United States to use nuclear weapons first to deter major nonnuclear threats against them.
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/no-first-use-and-nuclear-weapons
TomWilm
(1,832 posts)They are a double edged sword, as it is clearly shown now again. On top of that both Russia and the USA has other non nuclear possibilities, that can destroy cities. Also they can be delivered by ICBM, and should be considered a barbaric threat which should be made illegal.
Nukes or no nukes, most bigger countries can make devastating chaos at selected enemies. And both would know that the favor would be returned with a vengeance.
Which is why it might be a good idea to use some resources for better diplomacy and conflict resolution methods. And use these powers to get rid of that kind of arms:
1987:
Polybius
(15,514 posts)They should have kept them.
TomWilm
(1,832 posts)... there has never been delivered a NATO wide military response to an Article 5 request. And 9-11 was no exception from this. Some countries did not mobilize any soldiers, and from the ones who did, some sent less than a handful soldiers.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)I have faith in the alliance.
former9thward
(32,117 posts)In 2012 Turkey asked for NATO Article 5 help after Syrian attacks and the loss of one of their jets due to a Syrian shoot down. NATO declined saying they "would stand by Turkey" but they would not offer military assistance.
In addition Article 5 can never override the Constitution which says only Congress can declare war. There is nothing automatic about it.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)That didn't cause it either. There is a big difference between an attack and an incident, I would argue.
We haven't gone to war since WWII. Flexibility exists on our military use outside an official declaration.
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Be real.
Korea.
Viet Nam.
Do those ring a bell?
Iraq.
Afghanistan.
And aren't we in Syria fighting too?
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)I was responding to post 30, which read:
In addition Article 5 can never override the Constitution which says only Congress can declare war. There is nothing automatic about it.
Apology accepted.
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Hey, if you want to admit you made a misstatement, fine.
But, be real.. the US has, in your words, "gone to war" almost NON-STOP since WWII.
AND article V doesn't say a NATO country has to be in a declared war to be protected by Article V.
So much for that argument, hmmm?
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)The last time we were at war per that definition was with the Japanese. You should probably direct your aggression against the poster I was responding to. If you'd bother the read the sub-thread, you will find you are agreeing with me and disagreeing with them.
Apology still accepted.
former9thward
(32,117 posts)Turkey did. Big difference. Flexibility exists in the use of our military but no outside body can compel it to be used.
Gore1FL
(21,164 posts)bluewater
(5,376 posts)bluewater
(5,376 posts)Response to former9thward (Reply #30)
Polybius This message was self-deleted by its author.
marie999
(3,334 posts)He's having enough trouble in Ukraine, he has to know he can't beat NATO. China doesn't want WWIII because even if no one fires a strategic nuclear missile at China, it will still be destroyed.
Chainfire
(17,708 posts)I like Zelensky, I think he is the best possible leader for Ukraine in this time of crisis. He is strong, smart, and effective, he is a great spokesperson and apparently a damn good military commander in chief. However, Mr. Zelensky can't buy insurance after the car wreck and expect the insurer to pay off. Ukraine has flirted with the idea of joining NATO for about 15 years, the idea was not popular with the Ukrainian people.
I understand that the Ukrainians need help, but NATO, by avoiding shooting at Russians, is not abandoning them. Our failure to attack Russian targets, at this time does, not mean that NATO in general or article 5 in particular is weak. Hopefully NATO's resolve and preparation for war have strengthened in the past three weeks.
I understand people's frustration and I share their grief over what is happening. I favor, as Roosevelt did, giving Ukrainians all help short of war, and we are, we are in fact waging a bloodless war that is hurting Russia, perhaps mortally. Lets let the people we hired to protect us, protect us. The best thing that Americans can do, right now, is trust in and support our President and not try to second guess his decisions and the decisions made with other world leaders. If it becomes time to start shooting at Russians, I believe that the free world will rise to the task and prevail. If we can defeat them without firing a shot, that is even better. It will, however, take some time for our current war on Russia to take full effect. Try to be patient.
Russia, nor Putin, are going to walk out of this situation with a win. Even if they occupy the government buildings they will not win. Japanese Admiral Yamamomo told his inner circle that he feared that Japan had awakened a sleeping giant when they attacked Pearl Harbor, he was right. Japan whipped our butts all over the Pacific for six months until the tide began to turn at Midway. Putin has done the same kind of thing, but instead of waking up one country, he has pissed off most of the world. He will get his just reward.
ripcord
(5,553 posts)Just not outraged enough to stand up to Putin.
Polybius
(15,514 posts)No NATO member was attacked.
Blue_playwright
(1,568 posts)
closing the airspace is such a horrendous thing and will start WW3.
Im a pacifist and completely flabbergasted by this war. So be kind and use small words. Lol 🤦?♀️
TomWilm
(1,832 posts)It seems to be, that I am the only one who has actually read the NATO treaty (plus a few other DUers). All our politicians has never studied that thing, and nor has their generals - or maybe they are in some kind of collective delusion, or are simply bending the truth...
Actually I think most of them has only a very partial idea of it, even about Article 5. All that is ever told in the speeches about the NATO treaty is that Article 5 is: An attack against one ally is treated as an attack against all. Which technically is true, but does not tell the real story.
"Closing the airspace", even just a no-fly zone to protect a small humanitarian corridor, is the same as keeping the enemy away from that area by military force. And since the myth among all the NATO leaders today is something about an attack on them all and so - this will automatically lead to all of NATO going to war against the attacker.
But this does not at all square with the NATO treaty, which does not force anybody into the use of armed force, but just to do such action as it deems necessary - like writing a harsh letter.
And to your point, the NATO treaty are solely focusing on territory, and not on military units leaving their homes, and going far abroad. It is precisely not covering military jets flying above Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria or even Ukraine - but only "aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories" - aka only NATO territory!
There is no words in the NATO treaty forcing their member to help Ukraine, but there is also nothing stopping any country in NATO, even the United States, to have their private adventure by going there. Which would not include NATO as such in any way.
It would put that country at war with Russia, but real fighting would most probably only be acted out in Ukrainian territory. Military brains normally knows have to keep such trickery from spreading too far.
BUT the bottom line is, that the people in charge of all the military of NATO, including nuclear bombs, will act as if they cannot place a NATO war plane in the now contested airspace of Ukraine - since Russia shooting it down, or the opposite, by treaty would throw the full NATO military force into war with Russia. Though it is not so!
Since I also am a pacifist, I should not spread this analysis ☺️. My view is that Biden should announce that he is flying Air Force One to Kyjiv for a summit NOW. As long as Biden is in the capitol of Ukraine, there would never be a Russian attack close by. Putin is stupidly aggressive, but neither he or his generals are suicidal.
Such a gesture from Biden would be in full spirit of the NATO treaty, which - and the NATO crowd would never quote this themselves - demands that all NATO members undertake to settle any international dispute in which they may be involved by peaceful means!
Blue_playwright
(1,568 posts)This makes sense. I guess my pacifist brain went more simplistic - thinking that Zelensky could declare a no-fly zone over his own country and why on earth was the rest of the world preventing him from doing so? Thanks! I also appreciate you didn't tell me how to use Google. LOL!