Dr. Birx Predicts 200,000 Deaths "If We Do Things Almost Perfectly"

[appalachiablue]

Source: NBC News

The White House coronavirus response coordinator said Monday that she is "very worried about every city in the United States" and projects 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths as a best case scenario.

In an interview on "TODAY," Dr. Deborah Birx painted a grim message about the expected fatalities, echoing that they could hit more than 2 million without any measures, as coronavirus cases continue to climb throughout the country.

"I think everyone understands now that you can go from five to 50 to 500 to 5,000 cases very quickly," Birx said. "I think in some of the metro areas we were late in getting people to follow the 15-day guidelines," she added.

Birx said the projections by Dr. Anthony Fauci that U.S. deaths could range from 1.6 million to 2.2 million is a worst case scenario if the country did "nothing" to contain the outbreak, but said even "if we do things almost perfectly," she still predicts up to 200,000 U.S. deaths. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, reiterated Monday on CNN that "I don't want to see it, I'd like to avoid it, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw 100,000 deaths."..

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dr-deborah-birx-predicts-200-000-deaths-if-we-do-n1171876

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[onecaliberal]

1. Two words

Florida, Louisiana.

[SKKY]

24. Two more words

Red States

[onecaliberal]

27. Some red states are doing the right things.

[SKKY]

45. Oh, I agree. Kentucky being one of those...

...I was simply stating the obvious.

[onecaliberal]

46. Yeah.

[gibraltar72]

2. No longer have any faith in her. Lies about one thing she'll lie about others.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. Trump administration does nothing perfectly

and by the seat-of-the-pants math I've done over 6 weeks, 2 million is pverly optimistic. We have large populations who were not told and did not take this seriously, we have gaps in treatment, and much remains unknown about the illness. It's like they're breaking the truth to us slowly, hoping we won't remember their low predictions based on nothing. How much of that is political is anyone's guess.

[nevergiveup]

4. She may be correct but

being a skeptic I suspect there is a chance she is just setting Trump up for a "Win". Trump announced yesterday that anything below 100,000 would mean they have done a good job. At this point I don't trust anything she says.

[Igel]

36. These are published numbers from a couple of weeks ago,

using fairly standard models.

The upper bounds if nothing is done--and when they say nothing, they mean literally nothing, from no hospitalization to no social distancing--are those widely quoted in the media.

It goes like this:
If nothing is done, our best estimate is that 2.2 million could die. (Notice 'estimate'--it's 2.2 million +/- so much, and this is the peak)
Their best estimate is that 2.2 million could die.
2.2 million will die.
At least 2.2 million will die.
Anybody claiming less than 2.2 million because we're not doing what China did is obviously lying.

It's a game of telephone.

Things that could be done are social distancing, hospitalization, school closures, lockdowns. Any of these reduce the numbers. But all together won't zero out the numbers. Those who say the red states have done nothing obviously think they don't have hospitals and all the schools are still open. I'm in a red state. Schools are mostly closed and large urban areas are locked down. Oh--and we have hospitals. Some even have running water.

Their models also say if nothing's done there's very large peak soon. If the maximum is done, there's a flattened, but still substantive peak, in a few months. If an in-between set of choices are implemented, things will quickly quiet down and then all hell will break loose next fall.

[delisen]

38. Agree this likely a political statement meant to allow Trump to declare victory

when that number is not reached.

[Iliyah]

5. She is a tool . . .

Dr. Fauci already said this, and I'll rather trust him over this tool.

Initially, the administration/shithole/republicans dropped the ball. I will not take lightly the forgiveness aspect.

[unblock]

6. china's so incompetent they can't even get up to 4,000 deaths!

more people, more crowded, inferior health system, and zero advance warning, yet they managed to contain it quickly and new official cases have slowed to a trickle.

now, i'm certainly open to the possibility of under-reporting for various reasons, but i think it's safe to say the u.s response has been uniquely inept.

we seem doomed to have the highest number of deaths of any country in on the planet, and there's really zero good reason for that other than this administration's abject incompetence.

[2naSalit]

13. Intentional incompetence. ...nt

[unblock]

16. i don't disagree, but i've stopped caring much about intent.

at some point, it no longer matters. if his actions and inactions result in americans dying unnecessarily, he needs to go either way.

yeah, in theory, intent would affect any charges and prison sentence. but in practice, all that matters is, evil intent or not, he's a horrible person to have as our president and he needs to go.

[2naSalit]

17. Good point! ...nt

[BamaRefugee]

7. So 500,000 will die, eh?

[Turbineguy]

8. Prefectly

As in phone calls?

[empedocles]

9. There is a chance that birx and fauci are working together astounded at the job

of trying to work with the monster trump.

Fauci works the outside, more bluntly.

birx, the woman, can work more softly on the inside - birx may be the one that got trump off of his Easter rant, out to end of month.


Working together, they have more clout, and trump can sense that. Then they can both make trump aware of stupid stuff like his Easter 'adjustment'.

Possible. They can do more good working from the inside, than outside.

[BlueIdaho]

12. Good Virologist bad Virologist?

That sounds like a workable idea!

[Lulu KC]

44. I am one of the few other people who thinks this is possible

[Freethinker65]

10. Did anyone ask Brix why Trump was the only one that thought otherwise for over TWO months!!!

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. Her purpose is to begin framing Trump's failure as a perfect success

Since we aren’t doing “nothing”, Fauci’s worst case numbers are unlikely, but that will be held out as “the deaths if Trump wasn’t running things”.

Birx is framing 100-200k as “doing everything perfectly” which Trump will take credit for. Any deaths above that number will be blamed on Democratic governors, just like all the “illegal” voters in California gave HRC a majority of the popular vote.

What Birx and Trump can’t Control is the reactions of the surviving loved ones of the deceased, and comparisons to the death rates of other countries.

[2naSalit]

14. +1

[Salviati]

20. Right, from the projections out of UW-Seattle

It seems like 140k is the worst case projection of doing things well, 80k is the most likely, and 40 is best case scenario. IMO, she's deliberately highballing the numbers to make this mishandling look better.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[Igel]

37. She's citing an Imperial College study.

Not her own work.

[John Fante]

33. That should appease the MAGAts, I guess.

The rest of us will view it as the massive failure it is. Dickhead was downplaying this looming crisis for months.

100k deaths would equal a signicantly higher mortality rate than even Italy, and they've been on a stringent lockdown for a month. Where's our national lockdown?

[dailytroubadour]

15. Dr. Birx lost all credibility last week

with her gaslighting and spin.

We have every right to tune her out. Dr. Fauci is maybe the only one left that I trust. Even with him, I begin to have doubts.

Trust the people on the front lines: health care workers, patient testimonials, low level govt., beat reporters. The closer you get to Trump, the less I believe. The orange turd sheds viral lies, a highly transmissable disease.

[turbinetree]

18. Maybe she can get Pence and the rapture crowd so they can join hands and speak in tongues .......

her and trump have succeeded in there mission..................no shit sherlock you and him were late, your boss thought it was HOAX.................do you fucking remember........................he was told last November................

[RobinA]

19. Well, There's Also

a chance they're trying to get Trump to act in some way appropriately by giving worst case scenarios. I kind of don't believe anybody anymore. Everybody in this administration is trying to get something by inflating, underinflating. Who the hell knows. I'd like to hear from someone who has no interest in affecting policy in any direction.

[Miguelito Loveless]

21. So, how many will die doing what we are doing now

with a raging sociopath in charge?

[Pisces]

22. Then we should expect 400K to 500K

[Dios Mio]

23. Hold on there

Wasn’t a previous estimate 250K deaths? I think trump is guessing that number of people will die and he can say job well done. We didn’t lose millions. It could just be me just spiralling deeper into my state of paranoia

[LisaL]

25. Well, it's clear we are doing things far from perfectly.

So how many are going to die?

[Alacritous Crier]

26. I'm pretty sure...

it's going to end up more than a million dead. After that the Trump depression. Buckle up, Y'all!

[captain queeg]

28. The fact that she said that in front of him might means he's

Starting to believe in reality. I certainly don’t want to let him off the hook but at this time we’d be better off not attacking him. The virus will still be around come November “his numbers” are not going to be looking good but if he’d start cooperating the numbers of deaths could be mitigated.

I had a scary thought this morning. I’m like a lot here, I worry he could declare martial law and become a dictator. He’s is so inept we’d really be fucked if everything had to go they him. Just the way it is at present has been a disaster.

[Thomas Hurt]

29. Hey, doc, why didn't the amoral pig's great business acumen make those numbers much lower?

[Chainfire]

30. Whatever the final toll

You have to realize, that if we lose 50,000 or 5 million, Trump will paint it as a great success because without his brilliant leadership, it would have been far greater. If they are already talking about six digit numbers, you can bet that they are seeing forecasts of seven digit numbers, because their standard operating procedure, is to downplay everything negative, and brag about the things they have been way behind the curve on.

[LudwigPastorius]

31. Maybe we should start calling her Dr. Turgidson.

[AKing]

32. I do not trust Dr Bobblehead. She is a Trump flunky. Dr Fauci is the one to trust.

[llmart]

41. +1000

For the past few weeks she's been standing behind the orange asshole nodding her head up and down in agreement with him like the proverbial German Shepherd dog in the back of a car window. Now we're supposed to listen to her?

Give me Dr. Fauci anyday.

[iluvtennis]

34. Just last week, Birx briefed that counties across the country could start coming off of lockdown.

Now, she is saying 200,000 deaths. Her two statements are contradictory. Which one is it.

[Cryptoad]

35. WE have known since 1918,,,,

that this pandemic was coming and for us to this unprepared is nuttin more than a total lack of Leadership, an act of moral turpitude!

[Brainfodder]

39. At this point 666,666 won't surprise me?

These assholes in red states should be thanked on Nov. 3rd!

[murielm99]

40. Look at that asshole,

standing behind and next to her. He looks ready to stab her in the back if she says the wrong thing.

Emperor Trump!

[Initech]

42. Heckuva job, Trumpie.

[DeminPennswoods]

43. I'll remain skeptical of any and all projections until

I know what the model's data inputs are and on what they are based.