2019 Gravis Marketing Kentucky Poll

[brooklynite]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by Omaha Steve (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Gravis Marketing

For the Gubernatorial race, Matt Bevin currently leads Andy Beshear 48%-42%. Beshear does considerably better with college educated voters (trailing 51%-49% among those with a bachelor’s degree and leading 55%-32% among those with a post-graduate education). The problem for Beshear is that there just aren’t many those voters in Kentucky. Bevin holds a 53%-32% lead among voters with a high school diploma and 51%-40% among those with “some college” education. 38% of the sample has a bachelor’s degree or higher compared to 62% without. The gender gap is evident as well with Beshear leading 47%-40% among women and trailing Bevin 57%-37% among men.

Democrats are also in jeopardy of losing the Attorney general race for the first time since the 1940’s. Former State House Speaker and State Attorney General Greg Stumbo trails Attorney and former University of Louisville football player Daniel Cameron 47%-36%.

Gravis Marketing also tested some 2020 matchups. Mitch McConnell leads former Lexington Mayor and 2016 Democratic Senate nominee Jim Gray 49%-41%. Donald Trump is in a much better position than McConnell leading Biden 57%-37%, Sanders 57%-35%, Warren 60%-28% and Buttigieg 60%-28%. Trump’s current approval rating in Kentucky is 60% with 37% disapproving. Nancy Pelosi has roughly the inverse of Trump’s numbers with only 30% approving and 62% disapproving of her job as Speaker.

Read more: http://www.gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/2019-gravis-marketing-kentucky-poll

[ananda]

1. Wow!

Those people in Indiana are SO lost ...

[still_one]

3. Indiana? This is Kentucky isn't it?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. Who is lost?

[Hortensis]

2. In December Mason-Dixon had Beshear up by 8 over Bevin.

Notably, Kentucky is one of the states that will have the Medicaid expansion at stake in state elections next November 19, and it'll be interesting to see the effect of that. Bevin's Medicaid plan that cuts out as many from eligibility as they can get voters to okay has Trump's stamp of approval.

According to the Morning Consult poll, Bevin is the least popular governor in the country, with a negative 33-52 unfavorable rating. Bevin dismisses the poll as “baloney” and correctly points out he trailed Democrat Jack Conway in the polls throughout the 2015 race and then won by 10 percentage points. But Bevin won less that 50 percent of the vote in the Republican primary — not very impressive for an incumbent.

So the numbers say it should be easy for Beshear. But once monolithically Democratic Kentucky has turned solidly Republican. ...

https://www.dailyindependent.com/opinion/beshear-needs-adkins-in-rural-kentucky/article_f8b3fb34-8ee0-11e9-b18f-3b4781c9255e.html

[still_one]

4. This really isn't a surprise, and why we need to take national polls with a large grain of salt,

since it is states, and the electoral college that determine the President

[Bayard]

5. Same as it ever was....

The problem here is that most people just aren't into politics, except maybe in the college towns (Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green). Many don't vote at all, or are uneducated about alternatives. Its how McConnell only polls at 32% here, but all those disapproving folks don't get out to vote.

They are more inclined to vote in presidential elections, but are fans of Faux News. They take all that garbage as fact. My brother lives in southern Indiana, which is basically still Louisville. When the Mueller report came out, he was exuberant--Now maybe tRump can get back to doing his job! Did he actually read any part of it? Oh, hell no! In 2016, he was sure if Hillary Clinton won, she was coming for his guns. After the election, I asked him if he was going to learn to speak Russian. He had no clue what I was talking about.

Would I ever cut my brother off because of his political views? Not a chance. I love the little brat (now in his 50's, but still my little brother). I blame it on the time I was walking him in his stroller when he was a baby. I kept telling him not to lean over to drag his hand along the ground, but he fell out on his head.

[Hortensis]

7. :) Love to hear about still-loving families. That article

I posted goes on to talk about rural attitudes, but the view from someone who lives KY realities is particularly welcome.

[Duppers]

8. 😁

"...but he fell out on his head." That and Faux solves the problem with his perspective.

[Bayard]

11. I can say that

You can't. Just like I wouldn't dream of saying that about your family.

[maxsolomon]

12. OK, I'll delete

Tell your brother I apologize.

[Bayard]

14. He'll never know

[LonePirate]

9. We need to stop wasting time and money in KY. The stupid people have spoken and won.

[Bayard]

13. Really?

People aren't any more stupid here than elsewhere. If they were the only ones, tRump wouldn't be in office. Like I was saying--not enough vote, or have adequate information. Encouragement of both could go a long way. Dems should invest more in states like ours, not less. Especially in small towns.

I'm putting my money on Andy Beshear (governor) and Amy McGrath (senate). They should have--and need--the party's support.

[LonePirate]

15. We should invest more in states like AZ, GA and NC. We should invest less in KY, MO and OH.

Sometimes ceding ground and calling it quits in a no-win battle is the best option.

[Bhkylib]

16. I don't buy this poll...I've heard differently

I live in Kentucky and I've listened to some talk shows here and they're saying internals are showing Beshear up double digits on Bevin, that's why the Republicans are spending so much money so early on attack ads.

[kyburbonkid]

17. They are really spending a lot of money to dump on Beshear's negatives.

Republicons are really dumping a ton of money into ads to bring down Beshear's numbers. They will try to sell "old" Beshear as "old" corrupt Frankfort (State Gov), and Bevin as the "Maverick Trumpian" to save the day. The rethugs have lots of money to blow as this is a way to protect McCONnell. They are going to use the old McConnell i65 strategy and concentrate on the western half of KY, while they ignore the eastern half. If we can win Paducah we will win. There is a lot of AM radio in this state and that will be the big fight. Getting our voice heard out in the country rural areas they tend towards the libertarian rebel south types.

Bevin is a POS candidate though and should lose. He killed Ky's model health care system, destroyed the state pension system forcing it on Louisville's budget to pay up immediately and tanking the city's budget, while at the same time destroying both the education systems; lower and higher ed. He will not win Louisville that is for certain. His only claim to fame is the illegal abortion bills he passed.

If we focus on the western Ky cites, Bowling Green, Paducah, and the counties towards the west, keep Frankfort and Lexington and Pikeville and our eastern Ky friends we should do well.

[Omaha Steve]

18. After a review by forum hosts....LOCKING

Due to 3rd posted paragraph, belongs in DP.

Per the decisions and instructions of the DU Admins, all OP's regarding Democratic candidates for the Party's nomination for President are to be posted in the Democratic Primaries Forum. Please post your OP there. Thanks