Brexit Poll Sees 10-Point ‘Leave’ Lead Two Weeks Before Vote
Source: Bloomberg
The campaign for Britain to leave the European Union took a 10 percentage-point lead in a poll published late Friday, less than two weeks before the country votes in a referendum.
The survey of 2,000 people by ORB for the Independent newspaper found 55 percent in favor of a so-called Brexit, up 4 points since a previous poll in April, with 45 percent for “Remain,” down 4 points. It’s the biggest “Leave” lead recorded by ORB in polls for the newspaper.
It’s the latest online poll to suggest an advance for the “Leave” campaign, while a YouGov survey published Monday put “Remain” narrowly ahead. Polling companies themselves have expressed doubt about the reliability of their surveys, having failed to forecast the result of last year’s British general election.
The pound slumped after the poll as doubt creeps into some investors minds that Prime Minister David Cameron will be able to pull off the biggest political gambles in recent British history. While pollsters have cautioned against over-interpreting their findings and another survey this week showed “Remain" in the lead, Cameron himself is showing signs of unease.
Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-10/brexit-poll-shows-leave-in-10-point-lead-two-weeks-before-vote
Stocks, Oil Sink While Dollar Rallies as Brexit Risk Ramps Up
Global stocks posted their steepest drop in four months, the dollar rallied, and bond yields slid to record lows, as investors braced for a series of events later this month that could renew turbulence in markets.
The British pound tumbled and stocks took another leg down after poll results showed a majority favor the nation leaving the European Union.
Both the MSCI All-Country World Index and S&P 500 Index wiped out weekly gains. Treasury 10-year note yields declined, as yields from Japan to Germany fell to all-time lows, before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and Britain’s referendum this month. Oil dropped to around $49 a barrel, leading commodities lower.
“It’s getting ugly,” Mark Kepner, managing director and equity trader at Themis Trading LLC in Chatham, New Jersey, said by phone. “There’s another Brexit poll out and the market just tanked. We’ve got our Fed meeting next week and we’re less than two weeks away from this vote. We’ve had some good gains and nice rally so when a poll late in the afternoon comes out it’s just taking some chips off the table.”
Optimism that drove riskier assets from equities to commodities higher this week may have peaked before meetings by the Fed and the Bank of Japan, Britain’s vote and U.S. political conventions, all of which have the potential to roil markets. Investors also face simmering concerns over the health of the economy, lackluster corporate profits and the effectiveness of central-bank stimulus. While policy makers have tried to shore up economies, they’ve pushed yields lower, hurting earnings prospects for banks.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-09/futures-tip-more-asian-stock-declines-as-dollar-unsettles-crude
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whatthehey
(3,660 posts)One possible saving grace is that the louder more emotional side in the recent Scottish referendum was overcounted in polls as many were reluctant even "anonymously" to go against vocal ideological crowds, but did so in the safety of a ballot box, but IIRC that didn't have so large a lead so late in the game. I still think the quiet majority goes with remain but it's getting hairier than I expected.
Purveyor
(29,876 posts)are willing to throw the dice on change.
Our own elections are displaying that trait.
daleo
(21,317 posts)And that's why I think Trump's chances are better than most people think. People see him as an agent of change against the globalist status quo (though I think they are deluded on that point). Conversely, Hillary Clinton is seen as the ideal type supporter of the globalist status quo (though I think she might be more flexible about reform than most people think).
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Be careful what you ask for.
mwooldri
(10,346 posts)this Englishman will seek Scottish citizenship. I'd rather be a Scot in the EU than English outside.
AngryAmish
(25,704 posts)Last best hope for a united Ireland.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Things need to change in BOTH Irelands, but there's ways and there's ways.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)Damn near had to file for bankruptcy last time I went to London. 
Mojorabbit
(16,020 posts)Just reading posts
(688 posts)A pound is worth $1.46 right now. A couple of years ago, it was as high as $1.71.
mwooldri
(10,346 posts)AntiBank
(1,339 posts)
pampango
(24,692 posts)hope that a Brexit will set the precedent for their own countries to leave the EU.
The Labour Party and British unions will not be so happy.
uhnope
(6,419 posts)there's a few on DU who love Brexit for that reason.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)...who are predominantly wanting to leave the European union.
Sigh.
LeftishBrit
(41,291 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)are being helpful to it or to you.
Labour needs to lay out a way to weaken the austerity consensus within the EU. Some of the "Leave" faction are right-wing xenophobes, but others are leftists who are arguing that leaving is the only way to break with neoliberalism.
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)Last edited Sun Jun 12, 2016, 03:06 AM - Edit history (1)
and ends up either as outright feudal-fascism, or in profound social upheaval, both tending to involve war.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Time to reclaim THIS quote from Thomas Paine(once stolen by Reagan, who never had any understanding of what Paine actually meant)
"We have it in our power to begin the world again".
And the paraphrase of the words of Gerard Winstanley that Leon Rosselson used to end the lyrics of "The World Turned Upside Down":
You poor take courage, you rich take care,
this world was made a common treasury for everyone to share
all things in common...all people one...
We come in peace
(the orders came to cut them down)
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)LeftishBrit
(41,291 posts)Trump would of course be delighted!
tabasco
(22,974 posts)Lots of Germans want to kiss the EU goodbye too.
uhnope
(6,419 posts)If the UK goes that way, they've lost the plot.
Of course, purveyors of hatred toward the west, and of love for anti-west fascists, really love Brexit.
Purveyor
(29,876 posts)
uhnope
(6,419 posts)Him and Putin are near-equal assholes
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)in Europe was that those parties were the ONLY ones offering an actual defense of the welfare states and, for cynical reasons, the labour movement(using the British spelling there because this is a discussion of a non-US topic).
The social democratic and socialist parties, if they want to survive, need to stop appeasing the financial sector and the EU austerity fetishists and defend unions and the social wage...those things were THEIR historic achievements, after all.
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)(now Unidos Podemos - United We Can) being genuinely what pundits would call 'populist left' - a firmly locally-based, locally-cognisant, locally-active volunteer party structure, feeding fresh ideas and initiatives from below to above, but with a strong intelligent leadership, strongly anti-corruption that understands how the system works - is in position to be most-voted party in the GE on June 26th.
More info: https://www.opendemocracy.net/democraciaabierta/manuel-nunes-ramires-serrano-francesc-badia-i-dalmases/is-spain-heading-towards-po
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)And those who won't (especially the social democratic parties in non-Scandinavian Europe, ALL of which have totally and permanently surrendered to neoliberalism)need to do the decent thing and dissolve themselves, so that a center-left and left that actually fight for and defend the people who vote for them can be built in their place.
One of my favorite results of the Northern Irish Assembly voting was the election, after forty-seven years of campaigning on an unapologetically socialist platform, of Eamonn McCann, as MLA(member of the assembly) for Foyle(the area in and around Derry)on the People Before Profits Alliance slate. An eloquent champion of peace, justice and equality for all has won a seat in a body that desperately needs to hear his voice in its chambers.
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)through local administrations upwards is the way to go.
roamer65
(36,905 posts)This time a fair trade block, nada more.
Too much undemocratic bureaucracy is what is causing this backlash.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)The EP has been called "a parliament without a government", and that tends to make it hard to argue for that body's relevance(ironically, it was the only legislative body Nick Griffin of the BNP ever got elected to).
Response to Purveyor (Original post)
Turbineguy This message was self-deleted by its author.
LeftishBrit
(41,291 posts)The multinational banking system has little to do with the EU, and would undoubtedly continue in its activities whether the UK remains or leaves.
Indeed, quite a high proportion of top bankers in London are neither British nor from other EU countries. The CEO of Barclays Bank, Jes Staley, is American, as was his notorious predecessor Bob Diamond. So is Bill Winters, CEO of the Standard Chartered Bank. Ross McEwan, the CEO of the Royal Bank of Scotland Banking Group, is a New Zealander. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is Canadian. And so forth.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Would Cameron lead the Tories in that election, or resign?
If he did step down, does that mean Boris would be a shoo-in to take over as Tory leader?
If so, how is it likely that the snap election would go?
One thing I'd say to any Labour-supporting DU'ers...
Whatever you think of Jeremy, he's GOING to be leading Labour IN that snap election if it happens, so please, if you have any wishes for anything positive for the UK, please stop attacking him at this point. All you can do by continuing to try to force him out is to help the Tories or, God forbid, UKIP.
Continuing to attack the guy at this stage is no different than supporting the SDP in '83 or '87.
LeftishBrit
(41,291 posts)another term).
Boris would have a good chance of the leadership, but there would be other people seeking it, some of whom are even worse.
The Tories would be in chaos and fighting each other; indeed they already are. Labour are usually in chaos and fighting each other. So it may partly depend on which party is in the worst state internally, and there would be tough competition for that.
It might also depend on whether the SNP decide to close ranks with Labour against the Right, or whether Scotland just gives up on the UK altogether.