538 - "Mueller Is Moving Quickly Compared To Past Special Counsel Investigations"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mueller-is-moving-quickly-compared-to-past-special-counsel-investigations/
DEC. 4, 2017 AT 7:26 AM
By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Filed under Russia Investigation
For months, there were rumors about a possible indictment against Michael Flynn, Trumps former national security adviser and key campaign aide. He had been under investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller since soon after the probe into potential collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia began in May. On Friday morning more than six months after Muellers inquiry started and more than a month after the first charges were leveled in the investigation Flynn pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI. That may seem like a long time for an investigation to begin yielding criminal charges, but based on the timing of the first indictments and guilty pleas, Mueller is moving fast.
Our analysis of special counsel probes in the modern era, starting in 19791 shows that the fact that Muellers investigation has produced criminal charges at all sets it apart a majority of the investigations over the past four decades ended without charges being filed against anyone. Moreover, in the inquiries that produced criminal charges, the first occurred more than a year, on average, after the special prosecutor was appointed while Muellers investigation produced its first charges after less than five months.
Historically, major special counsel investigations that have led to charges have lasted for years, with indictments trickling out as an inquiry gains momentum. Flynn has acknowledged that he is cooperating with Mueller, which suggests that more charges could be coming, as a result of the information hes contributing to the investigation.
Special prosecutors used to be a rare phenomenon, appointed in an ad hoc fashion by the president or attorney general when signs of major wrongdoing within the federal government were perceived to warrant an investigator who had no conflicts of interest related to the probe, according to Katy Harriger, a professor of politics at Wake Forest University who is the author of a book on special prosecutor investigations. Then Watergate happened, and Congress tried to create more legal protections for investigators by creating an independent counsel who was appointed by a three-judge panel rather than someone in the executive branch.
snip = long, good read