The Coming Trump Slump

[DonViejo]

Trump's tumultuous presidency is damaging the U.S. economy.

By Benjamin P. Edwards and Sarah C. Haan | Sept. 22, 2017, at 6:00 a.m.

Despite President Donald Trump's asserted focus on job growth and the business environment, his administration is damaging the fundamentals undergirding U.S. economic growth. A slowdown seems likely because Trump's fractious months in office have already degraded the nation's business and investment environment.

Contrary to Trump's belief, controversy-generating reality television strategies do not generate good governance and growth. While the president promised Guam's governor that tourism would go up "tenfold" because of media attention from his Twitter tirades about North Korea, the numbers tell a different tale. The war of words cost Guam's tourism industry $9.5 million last month. It appears vacationers would prefer to avoid possibly atomic attractions.

Sustained economic growth and investment require stability, predictability, public integrity and a strong commitment to the rule of law. These fundamentals matter when investors examine opportunities. They must consider political risk – the odds that a changing political climate introduces new risks without additional returns. Without predictability and reliable law, investors and business leaders may hesitate to risk capital here. Many investment decisions require parties to trust that a "so-called judge," as Trump has said, will apply settled law in predictable ways. Stable immigration laws also enable businesses to recruit and compete for global talent. Shocks create dangers and force investors and businesses to slow down to assess risk. As dangers escalate, investment shifts overseas to more predictable jurisdictions.

Consider the investments imperilled by the Trump administration's announcement that it would end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrival program. The decision threatens to waste America's investment in educating hundreds of thousands of Dreamers. It also hurts American citizens doing business with them. Will deported Dreamers repay car loans, student loans, and credit cards if displaced to foreign nations? Their employers' investments in training may also be squandered. The decision may even drive up insurance premiums for Americans that do not interact directly with Dreamers by removing their insurance premiums from the pool.

more
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2017-09-22/donald-trumps-presidency-is-hurting-american-business-and-economic-growth

[dalton99a]

1. He'll blame Obama

and the cult will swallow it without question

[mreilly]

10. Guaranteed. Cue the shrieking about Obama, BUT...

... we can counter that.

"I thought Trump was responsible for the economic 'boom' in the fall of 2017! I thought he was more of a leader than Obama, and yet somehow Obama outwitted him and broke the economy months after he left office? Why couldn't wonderful all-knowing Trump foresee that and stop it somehow? He promised everything would be great! How did he let Obama beat him?"

[klook]

15. Yes, the Deep State time bomb is set to detonate the economy in the coming months

Thanks in advance, Obama!!1!1

[Iliyah]

2. Duh

t-rump is already bankrupting the Secret Service; the USA is losing billions in tourism; food and gas prices are sky high; deporting people who contributes billions to the economy; minimum nor less paying jobs, et al.,

And now trying again to fuck up healthcare for millions including millions of jobs . . . starting another major conflict causing more suffering, and to boot, his administration and the GOP party living well off of our taxes while eyeing for tax cuts for the rich.

And that only mentions a few . . .

[workinclasszero]

6. Bush destroyed the economy for regular folks

So will Fuhrer Dump.

It will be even worst now if the republicans destroy healhcare and medicaid which is just days away from happening.

Many hospitals and long term healthcare facilities/old folks homes will fail and close, thousands of frail old people will be dumped off on relatives who can't even begin to take care of them or they will just be turned out on the streets to die I guess.

Oh and possible nuclear war with NK....

Yeah Trump is going to crater this economy, count on that.

[democratisphere]

3. Drumpf says he did very well financially in the last economic crash.

Probably will do well in the next crash he and his administration are creating.

[cutroot]

4. No surprise

When the economy falters, the rich come in and buy up control of everything at bargain prices. The republicans pull the same trick in every administration that I have lived through.

[workinclasszero]

7. Yup

It's called disaster capitalism I believe.

[AJT]

5. He is promising businesses everything they can dream of

and so far most have been pleased. Until consumer spending starts to fall things will be ok.

[LiberalLovinLug]

8. I fear the opposite. He is already at record lows

I fear that he'll get some bump somewhere like actually reading a teleprompter speech approved by his babysitters again or worse start a war with N Korea or Iran and the MSM will start calling him Presidential again. Because now, any bump at all to even 50% will look astronomical.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. The topic is the economy, not his approval rating. . . . nt

[IronLionZion]

11. A big part of the Trump bump was idiotic conservatives buying high

on the naive belief that Trump will create lots of jobs and bring back manufacturing and coal mines and a free unicorn for everyone after we get rid of the job stealing immigrants. Many of them missed out on much of Obama's market growth because they put it all in gold.

That's going to come back down soon. I've been shifting investments into more conservative risk-averse funds and warning people that Trump's idiocy is going to crash the markets eventually.

[SharonAnn]

14. Remember, T promised better health care coverage for much less cost.

[klook]

20. Better to maintain a mix of long- and short-term investments, imho

and - more importantly - in the opinion of many investment gurus.

Of course, generalized advice is worth the pixels it's written on. Your approach has to take into account your age, your health, your debt load, other obligations, your risk tolerance, and many other factors.

In my case, I have a few years' worth of funds in very stable investments that don't respond much to market fluctuations in either direction, some in funds that have a little growth potential but only moderate risk, and some other stuff that's riskier and won't be touched for many years if ever.

Just my 2 cents' worth, but I've had to train myself to resist the temptation to time the market. That was incredibly hard when the Bush Depression hit, because I had most of my retirement accounts in stock-based funds at that point. If I'd moved that money into safe investments at that time and realized those losses, I'd be in a world of hurt now.

I didn't look at my account balances at all for a few years, hoping the wisdom of long-term buy-and-hold advocates would manifest in a market rebound. Then when the Obama Recovery took hold, the ship was righted and the future looked brighter. I gradually moved some funds into safer options and finally got some advice from a professional, fee-only investment advisor.

Anyway, if you've read this far -- it sounds like your choices are probably wise. Not knowing anything about your personal situation, I'm just giving you my unsolicited pontification. I do think we have a horrible economic downturn coming, thanks to Trump and the insane Republican scheme to steal from the 99 percent. And we all need to plan accordingly for how to get through these years.

[bucolic_frolic]

12. 2000's Dot Com Bubble burst when the internet was built out

Find a sector of the economy that hasn't been built out on cheap money since 2012.

Exactly. We have over capacity in everything. Hence, the party is about to end in a crash.

[n2doc]

13. Retail is crashing

Record number of bankruptcies

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/13/news/companies/retail-bankruptcies/index.html

Auto loans- the next bubble to pop?

https://www.moneytips.com/todays-headlines-auto-loans-the-next-bubble/451

Banks anticipate recession coming

http://www.salon.com/2017/08/24/another-recession-is-coming-big-banks-warn/


It is coming, and given the republican's philosophy, it is going to be really bad. The only 'hope' is that it hits before the 2018 election and we get a wave of Democrats in office to take control of congress.

[ffr]

18. I'm getting a sense that others are wondering what's going on with the economy as well.

I'm always asked, how's your business "fairing?" Which always gives me pause. What is that suppose to answer in their eyes? I have to conclude this is the question they ask other business owners too. And I have to assume they're asking because they're seeing the economy adrift without any guidance.

[ffr]

16. I guess who'll be there ready to buy up failing companies for pennies on the dollar?

Putin's shell companies. All thanks to our right-wing friends who hate democrats more than they love their country.

[Texin]

17. As poster dalton said upthread, they WILL blame Obama ---BUT

when ordinary folks - many of whom voted for twitler - begin to suffer more economically than they have been previously because of his tinpot tirades creating uncertainty, tightening up credit, etc., it won't work. Of course, the diehards will believe it - those 22-23 percent of the implacable trump supporters - but the rest of those affected will know better. It's always the president and his party who get blamed for a bad economy.

[mopinko]

19. the aca brought a lot of jobs. good jobs.

those will blow away if it is repealed.