In what year do you think Single Payer will pass?

[Pugster]

We all seem to agree that single payer will not pass this year. Some argue that support will slowly built up until it becomes a reality in the next years.

How many years are we talking about?
Will it be 2018? 2020? 2026? I don't expect you to be a Nostradamus. Just give me your approximate estimate on when the 60 votes will be there, please. Thank you.

[DURHAM D]

1. The 12th of Never. nt

[COLGATE4]

4. Yep. nt

[Pathwalker]

27. Or maybe the 26th of never.

n/t

[Dyedinthewoolliberal]

2. To channel GWB

"who cares? We'll all be dead by then"

[NeoGreen]

3. The year after I die from a preventable illness (nt)

[Maven]

5. I think it will pass at the state level first

But even that won't happen for a few years. I'm thinking CA by 2020 or 2022.

[metalbot]

30. I think a state has to pull it off first

If CA can pull it off, then we get a shining example of how it works.

If you can't get a state that is dominantly Democrat to do it, then I think it's fantasy to think that single payer would get the right economy, the right congress, the right president, and the right courts to pull it off at a national level.

[Maven]

33. Yup, agreed

This is where the states as a "laboratory of democracy" can be key. CA is the perfect place for it, right political climate, huge economy, population is skewing younger and more diverse. If CA can make it work, other states will follow and then Medicare for all on the national level starts to look like the logical next step rather than a huge leap into the unknown.

[JenniferJuniper]

6. In the year 2525

if man is still alive, if woman can survive....

[tonedevil]

9. That song came to me as well. /nt

[tonedevil]

7. What year would you have said...

marriage equality would be the law of the land in November of 2008? I remember when that was the special pony that the left was using as a purity test to disrupt the Democratic party, according to a vocal contingent. So I have no idea when it will happen, but if nobody makes the effort it will be more like 2525.

[Pugster]

10. Massachussets had marriage equality in 2004

And a bunch of other states legalized it in 2008.

Today no states have ever passed single payer and the prospects of it becoming legal in any state by the end of this year are practically zero. So in 2008 (especially when a new Democratic President had been sworn in), I would have probably been more optimistic about same-sex marriage than I am now about single payer.

[tonedevil]

15. The election of a Democratic President...

by such an enthusiastic majority coinciding with the voting of Proposition 8 was pretty demoralizing. Very frequently marriage equality was being held up as the thing that had caused Democrats to lose elections. With that as the common wisdom many expressed the need to stop pushing this divisive issue until Democrats could consolidate their power. I'm reminded of those discussions when Democratic Senators are being tossed under the bus for signing onto the Medical for All bill.
I do want to say that your point regarding the differing states of legislation is valid. The two issues are different and can't be completely compared, but I did want to acknowledge that you have described a difference that may well be significant.

[Demsrule86]

26. It is completely different...years after social security and Medicare and Medicaid

became law, the GOP is still trying to end them.

[tonedevil]

28. And they aren't trying...

to end marriage equality?

[katmondoo]

8. Not in my lifetime nor in my kids lifetime

nor in my grandkids lifetime

[Hoyt]

11. Public Option -- 2022 if we get out the vote.

[Lifelong Protester]

12. I'm sure after I need it.

But we have to start talking about it, agitating for it. I didn't think marriage equality would happen in my lifetime, either.

[Orsino]

13. Depends on what the majority party in Congress wants.

Unless Dems capture the majority, in which case the Republicans will still control the agenda.

But in part it depends on how many people demand Single Payer. That is a growing trend since some time recently, when people realized they could.

I would have to say that this initiative will defy predictions. Can we finally get majorities together? Will voting rights be secured? Will Dems waffle? Will a president sign it into law? Hard to say.

[Pugster]

16. Does it require 50 or 60 votes in the senate?

?

[Demsrule86]

23. it would require 60.

[KelleyKramer]

29. No, it would take 51 to pass the Senate

Or even 50 if we held the white house

[Demsrule86]

25. Single payer will never pass...because of work place insurance...the ACA could add a public option,

add price controls and lower the ages of Medicare to 55...this could happen...

[StevieM]

14. Well, by 2028 voters who were under 30 when Obama was first elected will be voters under 50.

Last edited Mon Sep 18, 2017, 06:25 PM - Edit history (1)

People who were born in 1979 and later are much more liberal than their older counterparts. By 2028 they will represent a very large percentage of the electorate. It will be difficult for the GOP to win when faced with that dynamic. And every four years the problem will get worse and worse for them.

We may have our first president who favors single payer some time between 2021 and 2029. But that doesn't mean it will pass. My guess is that it will pass sometime between 2041 and 2049.

Of course, this is all assuming that we remain a democracy. And at this point that is a very big assumption.

[Demsrule86]

22. Sure...let's just wait for Demographics...in the meantime...that is 11 years away...what happens to

those who need healthcare now?

[StevieM]

31. I think you should re-read the OP. He or she asked for a prediction. That is what I gave.

The ability to pass single payer, the long-standing liberal dream, is not going to happen easily. It will require a more liberal, less Reaganite electorate.

Waiting for demographics is just another way of saying wait until we have the votes in Congress.

[zipplewrath]

17. 2027

Turn Texas and/or Florida "blue" and it will be the beginning of the end.

[treestar]

18. 2020

Democratic Congress and POTUS and people sick of the whole previous 4 years of back and forth. Anti-Orange Baboon reaction.

[Iggo]

19. I didn't think we'd get marriage equality or a black president in my lifetime.

Hell, even the black president didn't think we'd get marriage equality at first...lol.

[Demsrule86]

21. That is very different...and some GOP supported equality..the GOP except for three or four Senators

does not believe there should be any universal healthcare. It will never happen if we lose the ACA...we might have built on the ACA...all this Optimism...is not based on the reality we face. By offering essentially a repeal bill during a critical time in the fight to save the ACA was foolish. It undermines the ACA and our chances of saving it.

[Demsrule86]

20. Not anytime soon...so I will never get putting single payer out...if the ACA fails I will always

believe this played a role...we get nothing in the end...it was damned hard to get the ACA...also if the ACA goes, we never get single payer.

[Atman]

24. The year after I die...

...because I couldn't afford my health care procedure.

[Skidmore]

34. I'm in the same position,

and I have a young grandson who needs medications. I also have a sisterinlaw in chemo right now and two good friends with major health problems now. If ACA is lost to a monumental crap shoot, I know who I will blame and it won't be the RW goons who have been chasing this for years.

[RhodeIslandOne]

32. End of the next decade

The American people will finally figure out the Republican party are racist Nazis and big business Kochsuckers who shouldn't be elected dog catcher by about 2022 or so and once we clean the stink of them from state houses and governor's offices we can gerrymander fairly and take back this country.

[Lurks Often]

35. Never

[Mr. Ected]

36. 2112

"And the meek shall inherit the Earth...."

[peggysue2]

37. Guaranteed . . .

it will not happen this year or any year that Republicans are in power. I seriously doubt it will happen quickly or in the 4 year rollout Bernie Sanders has suggested. Because you're looking at too much economic upheaval.

I tend to think it will evolve from either state programs that finally succeed or expansion of Medicare to the 50-55 year old demographic. Then go from there. If you look at the Canadian system. they transitioned over time. Think the first stab was in the late 40s, a program that addressed hospital shortages. Not suggesting we wait that long but I am suggesting that refashioning nearly 20% of the Nation's economy will be neither easy nor quick. Americans loathe tax increases; it's built into the national DNA. So educating the public on the advantages of a public system will be arduous. People love the idea of a single-payer system without the squirmy problem of paying for it. That, too, will take time, not to mention the vested interests in the country that will fight tooth and nail.

So, not easy, not quick.

[Weekend Warrior]

38. The years are directly tied to election fraud, gerrymandering, a strong and stable DNC, etc.

Democrats need to get more city council persons, mayors, governors, house and senate members, and hold the Presidency.

Single payer is huge. When it comes close to being a reality even it's most ardent supporters will be nervous. It will be a structural change the likes of which we have never seen. Simply having a majority isn't enough. We need to dominate for a decade or more.

[whistler162]

39. well