Weather Underground Intensity forecast for Irma

[RandySF]

According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Irma is tied with Rita (2005) and Mitch (1998) as the fifth strongest hurricane in Atlantic records going back to 1851, based on maximum wind speed. Irma is the first Atlantic hurricane outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico known to attain 180-mph sustained surface winds. The lowest central pressure measured outside the Caribbean and Gulf was 919 mb in Hurricane Gloria (1985), versus Irma's most recent central pressure of 927 mb, but Irma could end up breaking this record as well. The highest winds of any Atlantic hurricane are 190 mph, set by Hurricane Allen (1980), and Irma may approach that record.

For the next five days, wind shear, SSTs, and ocean heat content will remain very favorable for development, with Irma passing over slightly warmer waters of 29.5 - 30°C (85 - 86°F) later this week. Mid-level relative humidity is predicted to slowly rise, reaching 65% by the end of the week. We can expect one or more eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) this week, which will act to temporarily weaken the hurricane by perhaps 10 mph, followed by re-intensification.

Three of our four most reliable intensity models—the HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and LGEM—predicted in their Tuesday morning runs that Irma would be a Category 4 or 5 hurricane with 130 - 160 mph winds through Saturday, and the official NHC forecast of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane for the remainder of the week looks reasonable. The only major impediment to Irma’s strength would appear to be interaction with land; a close pass or direct hit on Hispaniola or Cuba could potentially damage or destroy the hurricane’s inner core and knock it down to Category 2 or 3 strength.


https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-5th-strongest-atlantic-hurricane-record

[RainCaster]

1. Let it run right over the topic of Mir-a-Lago

Let the Climate-Denier In Chief get a taste of reality.

[Roland99]

8. Latest ECMWF model shows just about that

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/ecmwf_caribbean.html

[TheBlackAdder]

10. He probably has it insured for $250 Million by some Russian insurance company--praying for a loss.

[bathroommonkey76]

2. Which models should we believe?

The GFS model has Irma skirting the eastern coast of Florida and slamming into Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina on Sept 11 & 12.

You can play the GFS animation on here:

https://www.ventusky.com

Four days ago I posted this European model on Twitter- Looks like the path is the same as the GFS model this morning.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[RandySF]

3. I have no idea but

Aren't the waters cooler along the Carolinas? That might take some steam out of her.

[bathroommonkey76]

4. No, the ocean temps are around 80 along the SC & NC coasts. n/t

[Roland99]

7. Ventusky...I haven't seen a change in its forecast for days

And I've tried different browsers

[bathroommonkey76]

9. Ventusky uses the GFS and European models.n/t

[Roland99]

11. Well, last night the European model had it curling around SW FL

But ventusky still had it up the east coast as it has for days.

[BigmanPigman]

5. If this one heads past the tip of FL and goes into the gulf

there is going to be anothere crisis since the Gulf is so warm.

[NutmegYankee]

6. Hispaniola is often nicknamed the shredder because its tall mountains often weaken hurricanes.

Let's hope the shredder does its thing here.