In case you're wondering what a 120 kiloton blast can do to your hometown.

[RandySF]

Check out Nukemaps. San Francisco would see over 200,000 fatalities, but Seul would suffer over 400k. I hope Trump comes to understand the big picture.



https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

[Not Ruth]

1. What is the big picture?

Guam or the US?

[onethatcares]

2. is 120 kiloton the minimum?

I'm near CentCom and wondered how far the blast would affect.

[RandySF]

14. It's the estimate

[joshdawg]

3. trump only understands trump

Nothing and nobody else.

[longship]

4. On the order of 100Ktons.

That puts it in the moderately high fission bomb range, likely NOT fusion bomb.

Also, this device was exploded underground. When one does that there is no limit to the size and weight.

A "weaponized" nuke is an entirely a different matter, especially if one intends to mount it on a rather crude missile, which likely has low payload capacity. One must consider the DPRK's spotty successes in both weapons and missile tests. IMHO, this might be the only weapon test that worked right. The sixth time is the charm. Yet one of their missiles this week still blew up on launch. One went over Japan. (No wonder Abe is pissed.)

Miniaturizing a nuke means making it small enough and low enough mass to mount on a missile. But DPRK still does not have a very reliable missile. They are still blowing up. This especially since when one wants to mount one on a ballistic missile it still has to function after several G-force acceleration and deceleration on launch and re-entry respectively. And who's to say that they have successfully miniaturized their only now successfully tested nuclear bomb?

Well, Kim says so. Who believes that? And by the way, he also claims that he has an H Bomb. And a duplicate of the starship Enterprise with planet destroying phasers and photon torpedoes!!! And a fucking Star Wars Death Star!!!

Better watch out. You'd better not cry. You'd better be good. I'm telling you why. Kin Jong Un is bombing your town.

NOT!

[madinmaryland]

16. Kim has a helium bomb. Hopefully he shoots it on

D.C. I'd love to hear tRump with a high pitched squeaky voice.

[longship]

18. I've never heard of a helium bomb.

He's only tested 6 fission bombs, only the last two of which had a nuclear detonation yield.

It is so unlikely that they have a hydrogen bomb at this point to be a near impossibility.

Kim Jong Un is lying. Why do people believe him?

I would bank that they not only do not have an H Bomb -- the H stands for hydrogen, not helium -- they do not even have a miniaturized fission bomb suitable for mounting on a missile. And their missiles are pretty dodgy too. The last test included one flying over Japan, but another failing at launch.

And people think that The DPRK has a fusion bomb when they cannot even get their missiles to work right??? Also, Kim Jong Un tells the truth???


I am skeptical of all these claims. My physics education tells me that it is all hoohah. They have a fission bomb suitable for detonating underground is all we know for reasonable surety. All the rest is wild speculation.

[madinmaryland]

19. You missed it. The little canisters of helium

That will make your voice go up to octaves. That's the only helium bomb that exists. Helium is an inert element.

[longship]

20. Bad longship. Bad, bad!!!

[madinmaryland]

22. BTW, your assessment may be pretty close to what is going on...

[Towlie]

27. "My physics education tells me that it is all hoohah."

Are you sure it wasn't your physical education teacher?

[former9thward]

33. So the 6.3 earthquake was a lie too?

Which was 6 times the blast from their last test?

[sarisataka]

23. It is extremely difficult to believe

Has gone from crude fission to successful miniature Fusion devices in such a short time. No other nuclear power was able to develop their technology so quickly.

The only way I could conceive of such happening is if someone provided them with blueprints of a device that they merely needed to follow the instructions or perhaps provided an actual device.

[longship]

24. That's correct, but even then...

One still has to have the cutting edge knowledge to make the damned thing work.

They've only made six tests, only the last two of which were arguably nuclear yield. (10Ktons and reported 100 Ktons). The former is less than the Hiroshima bomb. The latter is a moderately large fission yield, if the reports are accurate.

I also disagree that they have any nuke of any kind which is deliverable by DPRK's dodgy missiles. Miniaturized, weaponized DPRK nuclear weapons do not exist. Not after a mere six tests, only two of which were arguably successful.

I am with you on the fusion weapon. It just doesn't exist.

Thanks for the reply.

[VMA131Marine]

28. It was likely a fusion-boosted fission bomb

The fusion component only adds about 10% to the total energy of the blast, but the extra neutrons from fusion cause a lot more of the fissionable material to react and the efficiency of the bomb goes up dramatically. It also allows the size of the bomb to be reduced to fit on a ballistic missile.

I still doubt that DPRK can build an Ulam-Teller type bomb, which is what makes up the US nuclear arsenal.

[longship]

31. Fusion boosted fission bomb??

Well, anybody can make one of those by just adding a little deuterium, heavy hydrogen, Atomic weight about 2. One proton and one neutron. It's necessary for fusion.

But here's the thing. When a country has only tested six nukes, putatively only two of which were nuclear detonations, it's not bloody likely messing around with hydrogen enhancements. And it certainly wouldn't help miniaturize the weapon by adding more shit to it.

They very well may have enhanced this test with deuterium, but that isn't going to help them mount the son of a bitch on one of their dodgy missiles and successfully launch it to its target.

And primarily, I kind of understand the technology. I don't believe hardly a word the DPRK says. Why would anybody?

Even if they have a weapon like you describe -- it may be, 100 Ktons is a big A-bomb -- I don't believe that they have a miniaturized version. Not after one test; not after six total tests. Not successfully deliverable from a dodgy DPRK missile.

I prefer to let the science and the verified evidence speak for itself. Not much of the latter, and too much speculation going on about this.

[VMA131Marine]

32. Fusion-boosting is essential for miniaturization to fit on an ICBM

The extra neutron Flux from the fusion component dramatically increases the efficiency of the fission component.

[Cryptoad]

5. Those who will be vaporized in the Blast,,,,

will be the lucky ones. Initial survivors will suffer a long and painful death.

[Hoyt]

26. Yep. I'm going to soak up the blast. Not going to spend my remaining days

sleeping with one eye open, preparing to kill my neighbors over food and water.

Besides, I don't believe we are in danger and we are being played by warmongers. Fact is, we are the only country vile enough to have used nukes. And, if Iraq actually had nukes, we never would have invaded them.

[Cryptoad]

29. use plenty of Don the Con Blast Blocker,,,30+

[FailureToCommunicate]

6. **sigh** As someone who did 'duck and cover' drills in grade school...

I CAN'T F-ING BELIEVE WE'RE GOING THRU THIS SHIT AGAIN!

It is not right that one (megalomaniacal) man gets to decide the fate of the entire planet.

[dalton99a]

7. On LA:

Hiroshima vs current technology

[longship]

21. No way DPRK has a weapon that large.

Let alone a missile that can get reliably to continental US.

Let alone a thermonuclear!

Why do people believe Kim Jong Un????

[former9thward]

34. Why do people think only a missile can deliver a nuclear bomb?

[longship]

35. Probably because that's the way we would do it.

But more importantly, that is how the DPRK says they'll do it. It is their claims that drive this narrative.

They claim that they have a deliverable nuke. My opinion is that they just barely have a nuke itself, let alone a deliverable one. There is no evidence whatsoever that DPRK has a weaponized nuclear weapon. Certainly not after a mere six tests, most of which were below nuke level.

[former9thward]

36. Are you willing to wait until they take out a city?

To be sure they are really telling the truth? And then there would be no end of rants claiming the U.S. was told in advance that this was going to happen and did nothing.

Our intelligence people have been consistently wrong on the nuclear capabilities of non-Western nations. They are constantly "surprised". People did not believe the things Hitler said and wrote in the late 1920s and 1930s. But he was telling the truth about what he was going to do. When people threaten us we should take them at their word.

[longship]

37. I won't take that bait, my friend.

It is science which will decide what kind of weapons DPRK has, not politics or supposition.

One cannot detonate a nuke anywhere on this planet without science being able to detect it and characterize its design.

I'll wait to see what the science says.

Yes, we have time for that.

My best to you.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

8. NorK artillery (about 20 miles away) would cause more than 400K casualties in Seoul

They'd instantly start a bombardment if the US attacked N Korea militarily.

[krispos42]

9. Lil' Kim has a "sore loser" button.

That's what "a" nuke on a missile is.

Obviously, a single nuke can't take out the U.S. It can, however, trigger multiple nuclear weapons (stamped "Made in U.S.A.&quot that detonate on North Korea and take that country out. Lil' Kim doing a first-use strike using a single nuke on us is a great way for him and the little nation he's the God of to be completely destroyed.

However, it gives Lil' Kim a last-use strike option. Let's say we get into a conventional war with him (or him with us) and he starts losing. Well, it gives him leverage in keeping us from crossing the DMZ and invading NK. A return to pre-war status. A reset button.

It also gives him a final "fuck you" to us if we cross the border and continue north with the intention of removing his government. He can launch on Tokyo or Seoul, both of which are large financial centers and that would severely damage the world economy on top of causing untold death and destruction to a world-class city. Or launch on China, just to get China involved with U.S. and allied forces.

Or whatever else he wants to do before being permanently disposed of.

[Voltaire2]

10. Nope. It is a deterrent and until they have

long range capabilities the target is Seoul. We can pretend that the "crazy Kim" narrative makes sense, but the fact is that North Korea is making itself immune from military aggression.

[krispos42]

11. It's a deterrent to us starting something

Not to us finishing something.

[Voltaire2]

12. sure. That is what a deterrent is.

Although in this case it is not a "mutually assured destruction" deterrent. The effectiveness currently depends on our unwillingness to accept the cost of the obliteration of Seoul. Given that we have an actual lunatic in charge of that decision, perhaps not a safe assumption. There is no evidence that North Korea is going to initiate anything.

[HipChick]

13. Trump does not care about the big picture...collateral damage...he only cares about winning..

Good Luck!..Have a good time!

[Iggo]

15. Nope. Gave up wondering about that when I was a kid back in the 60s and 70s.

Not putting myself through that again.

[struggle4progress]

17. Yay! It's not my problem: I'm outside the fireball radius!

[Jamaal510]

25. I'm right

across the Bay, so I don't know whether to be worried or not.

[Hekate]

30. The Mad King is incapable of grasping the big picture. He's playing with toys while other nations...

...are playing for keeps.