Vox: Its the citys third 500-year flood in the past three years.

[TomCADem]

Were the models regarding the frequency of flooding in various areas wrong from the get-go. Or, have the goal posts been moved due to circumstances such as, I don't know, climate change? Otherwise, Houston must be snake bit to experience several 500 year floods, which should only happen about once in a 500 year period.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning

It’s difficult to comprehend the scale of the flooding and devastation that Hurricane Harvey and its aftermath are wreaking on the Houston area. Weather experts call the storm unprecedented, and note that it’s gone beyond even the most pessimistic forecasts. In the final reckoning, it’s certain that Harvey will be classified a 500-year flood — and maybe even a 1,000-year flood.

But those terms can be a bit misleading — especially when high-profile people, like the president of the United States, confuse the issue by calling Harvey “a once in 500 year flood.”

In theory, a 500-year flood is something that has a 1-in-500 shot of happening in any given year — in other words, the sort of event that’s so rare that it might not make sense to plan around the possibility of it happening. The problem is that 500-year floods are happening more often than probability predicts — especially in Houston. And, especially in Houston, prevention planning hasn’t evolved to acknowledge that a “500-year” flood isn’t really a 1-in-500 chance anymore.

* * *
Either Houston is incredibly unlucky or the risk of severe flooding is a lot more serious than the FEMA modeling has predicted — and the odds of a flood as bad as the ones Houston has seen for the past few years are actually much higher than 1 in 500.

[L. Coyote]

1. Is God trying to tell us something about Joel Osteen?

One would think if the good pastor was all buddy-buddy with the Good Lord, this wouldn't happen.