General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIn the key 2018 battlegrounds, Trump's support is as high as ever
For the presidents critics, these slipping approval numbers seem like vindication. They show that Americans arent blind to the disorder in the White House that at least some Trump supporters are second-guessing their president.
But what does this mean in practical terms? American politics, by design, has never perfectly followed public opinion. After all, Trump never had a majority of Americans rooting for him. He won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. Whats important isnt his popularity nationwide but his approval rate in key parts of the country.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/4/16085892/trump-support-battleground-districts
The importance of this cannot be stressed enough. National polls don't make the difference electorally speaking.
DoodAbides
(74 posts)And Trump support in blue areas is slipping?
Ya. About right, right?
oberliner
(58,724 posts)The ones he narrowly won that basically turned the election his way.
DoodAbides
(74 posts)Still, it matters if we are talking about the five odd states out, their very rural area. It will always be.
ck4829
(35,102 posts)that is of, by, and for people who would rather have unemployment, an opioid crisis, and having policy people thinking it is somehow better to be shot by a Jason Dalton as opposed to a Muhammad than ever be told what to do by some liberal or minority?
This is the sad choice our country has to face.
We simply can not have both.
leftstreet
(36,119 posts)S/he spends many paragraphs explaining how, nationally, Trump approval is bad. But, of course not in the few districts that might matter for the midterms.
But then concludes:
?? After spending all those words and stats showing us that Americans are NOT divided in their dislike of Trump, the conclusion is Americans are divided
??
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But interesting data.
spooky3
(34,563 posts)found something on which they could base a "new" story (Republican voters in close Republican House districts versus elsewhere), and that basis is very weak statistically. And, why the authors would consider districts, rather than states, as the unit of analysis when looking at the meaningfulness of approval of the President (vs. implications for House races in 2018) is beyond me. Districts do not determine electoral college votes.
The real story is that Republicans in general everywhere are sticking to their approval, as has been reported many other times. That is very troubling.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I do think the broader point, though, is a critical one. Namely, that the only thing that actually matters in terms of the electoral college is the swing state voter.
If a million more people in NY or CA decide they don't like Trump and will vote for Unnamed Democrat instead, it doesn't actually help us any (even though it would show up as a huge shift in national polls).
spooky3
(34,563 posts)and determine whether trends there are noteworthy. That could support the broader point--or not support it.
BootinUp
(47,260 posts)about this article. I decided that , no, we shouldn't dismiss it, even though it's based on online poll data. And that the proximate cause is that a large group of T-rump supporters everywhere just don't like/hate people that are different than them (by their definition)
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