Could Mitt Romney win the South?

[kentuck]

There is no way that he can keep his Mormonism out of the election. I'm not saying it is bad. Just that the Southern Baptists will not take kindly to someone of the Mormon religion, in my opinion. And the Repubs cannot win without the South.

The Republican Party may be a lot of things but it is not politically naive. They are not stupid. They understand what a handicap this would be for Mitt Romney.

They have painted themselves into a corner. Romney is the only competent candidate still in the running and he can't seem to break 30% in the polls? How do the Republicans handle this dilemma?

[kiva]

1. Could be.

In 1960 JFK won the South despite the anti-Catholic bigotry that was prevalent at that time.

[surrealAmerican]

2. Aside from that ...

... he's from Massachusetts, which, in the south, would be considered a serious handicap by itself.

[Tunkamerica]

4. Bush was from Connecticut

[LeftyMom]

28. Which was why he played a Texan on teevee.

[HopeHoops]

3. He'll get the party-line vote, but intelligent people will give it a second thought.

[bluestateguy]

5. The Obama campaign will use the Mormonism as an issue

They will do it in a way that leaves none of their fingerprints on it.

Gingrich and Perry's campaigns have already taken the same approach.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

16. I don't believe so

The Obama campaign machine is tough but doesn't believe in hitting "below-the-belt" and I can't see a scenario in which it's brought out as an issue, nor do I think it should.

[coalition_unwilling]

20. I hope the Obama campaign machine goes after Romney for strapping his dog

Last edited Thu Dec 29, 2011, 03:43 AM - Edit history (1)

to the roof of his car (inside a pet carrier but on the OUTSIDE OF THE CAR!) for a 12-hour car trip.

Romney should be disqualified from holding public office for that petty sociopathic cruelty to animals, imo.

[groundloop]

24. I'd never heard that story before so had to search for it.... here's link

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1638065,00.html

[coalition_unwilling]

26. Thank you for the link. I had seen the Time story quite some time ago but

had forgotten about it until now.

[TlalocW]

6. I don't know about losing it outright, but it's going to be a struggle

And he's going to have to scrape and claw for every vote. The south holds the GOPs largest voter segment - the religiously insane, and for years, they've been told by their religious leaders - from famous ones on tv like Falwell, Robertson, etc. on down to the pastors of their backwater churches that Mormonism is a cult. Now, these leaders are of course going to be hypocrites and do a 180 if Romney is the nominee and line up behind him, but there's going to be an inertia to overcome to get their flocks out to vote. The ones that come out to vote will be the ones who hate Blacks more than Mormons, and the ones who stay home are the ones who are going to be thinking, "My choices are between a Muslim and a Mormon? Screw that! I'm watching NASCAR!"

TlalocW

[kentuck]

9. yep

[coalition_unwilling]

21. LMAO - talk about your Hobson's Choice: "a Muslim or a Mormon??" -- ROTFLMAO

[Hoyt]

7. If Romney spits out enough bigoted/racist crud, majority in South will vote for him.

[B Calm]

8. Electronc voting machines. . . maybe. .

[etherealtruth]

10. The right wing nut jobs will stay home

Last edited Wed Dec 28, 2011, 08:52 PM - Edit history (1)

.... and Barak Obama will win.

On edit: reading through other posts I do believe that a red-neck right wing Christian could overcome this

[izquierdista]

11. Colored or heathen? Heathen or colored?

Aw hell, Bubba, I don't know which is worse......let's just stay home and watch reruns of last Sunday's NASCAR and drink beer.*



*[font size = 1] and if you think that's offensive, that's after I cleaned it up for you.....

[cthulu2016]

12. Ullysses S. Grant would win the south in 2012

He had an (R) by his name

[bluestateguy]

15. I don't know about Georgia and the Carolinas

The General who commanded William Tecumseh Sherman would not go over so well in those states.

[nevergiveup]

13. Above all, Romney is a Republican and a white man.

He will easily win the South.

[Prophet 451]

14. Possibly

If Mittens is the nominee (and I think he's likely to be), then there are three groups of Republican voters he needs to woo. The batshit crazy John Birch/Teabagger crowd will, I suspect, hold their noses and vote for him. They won't do so with any real enthuasiasm but since Obama is a muslim Marxist driving the US to socialism (yeah, I know but these dickheads really do believe this shit), they'll likely pull the lever for Mittens. The second group are the Baptists (yes, there's a lot of crossover with the first group). For them, it's going to come down to whether they're more uncomfortable with the cultist or the black guy. So it depends how deep the racism or religious anitpathy runs and I have no idea on that one.
The third group are the casual Republicans. They're the ones that vote Republican when they vote but have no real ties to the party (and it's media echoes) beyond that. I think a good deal of them will stay home.

Also, there's always the possibility that one of the other candidates will get a second upswing in time for the first primary. Essentially, each candidate's pupularity has gone up and down like a wave and it's always possible that one of them catches a second wave at just the right time to win the first primary (and if they win the first, they'll probably be a force in the others).

If it is Mittens, expect him to pick a Southerner as his running mate in an attempt to mitigate some of the above. Jeb Bush is a possibility because the powers in the GOP are likely under the impression that people miss W (besides the GOP zombies, I mean). Perry would be another possibility. OK, he's even dumber than W (and I honestly didn't think that was possible) but he could probably bluff his way through a debate Palin-style (i.e. ignoring any question that doesn't fit with what you have memorised).

Finally, I think it's likely to be Mittens for the simple reason that I don't think the GOP powerbrokers really expect to win this one. I suspect they're going to nominate Romney in full expectation of him losing so they can say "OK, you've had your shot" and nominate someone more appealing to the base in 2016 (again, Jeb is a possibility). In the meantime, they'll use whatever power they have in Congress to do what they've been doing for the last four years: Prevent Obama from doing anything at all, smear him endlessly and see if they can find a pretext to impeach him.

[bigwillq]

17. Sure

anything is possible.
Who will they vote for? Obama?

[UTUSN]

18. R#2 & K for, just bwah-HAH!1 n/t

[aikoaiko]

19. Yes, when forced to choose between him and Obama.

It will be interesting to see how the mormonism thing gets played out, though.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

22. The question is: Do they hate Barack Obama more than they hate Mitt Romney?

With Nikki Haley throwing her support behind Romney despite her low approval ratings, I wonder if he'll give Newt a run for his money in South Carolina.

Mittens can't win Florida. I don't think he'll win S.C. And definitely won't win Georgia for obvious reasons.

Right now, it seems that anything can happen.

[Are_grits_groceries]

27. Nikki Haley gave Mitt the Kiss of Death!

Nobody likes her and even the teashitters level of support has dropped. She has pissed off the entire state. I hope he does travel around the state with her. That will set back his campaign here.

If Mitt wins the South, it would be a combination of a miracle, voting machines, and eleventy billion dollars and brazillions of people working on his behalf. He will have to spend needed time and money in an area that should be a given.

He is a Mormon and the evangelical base views that as a cult if not a subset of Hell. Catholics have begun to gain a grain of approval, but they may lose that unless they disavow heliocentrism again. They even give Methodists and others the hairy eyeball at times.

Unfortunately for Mitt, after a relatively friendly beginning, he has to run the Bible Belt gauntlet.

Newt is a slug with enough baggage to be an airport carousel. However, even with his limitless faults, the base may vote for him over Mitt. They understand sinnin' but not the Angel Moroni. It's Gabriel or nothing.

Nothing would surprise me when it comes to the eventual nominee. The wheeling and dealing plus backstabbing and underhanded intrigue going on makes the Middle East appear to be a bastion of rationality.




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[Liberal_Stalwart71]

29. That's true. S.C. seems to hate Nikki Haley right now, even the Teabaggers.

Still it'll be interesting how they vote. Yes, Mittens is a Mormon, but Newt is now a "born-again" Catholic! Being from the South, I know how backwards people are, even in his home state of Georgia (where I am originally from as well). It is a Protestant state and still very southern and very, very Baptist/Methodist.

I'm popping the corn because it's going to be sheer entertainment.

[groundloop]

23. HITLER would win here if he had an R next to his name

EDIT - Here being Georgia.

[fujiyama]

25. Do not underestimate many white people's hatred for the president

especially among southern white males. There is a visceral and irrational hatred for Obama and democrats in general in the south.

I don't see realistic scenarios where even Mitt's Mormonism would play enough of a role in him not at least winning all the southern states McCain won. Only in a freak scenario where the black vote is turned out in even higher numbers than '08 (almost impossible especially with new restrictive voter ID laws on the books), can Obama win maybe Georgia. And that's basically when hell freezes over.

Mitt is not well liked, but he'll take SC, GA, MS, AL, AR, TN, KY, and LA. He also has a strong shot at the swing states of NC, VA, and FL, the three southern states Obama took in '08...