Democrat Ron Barber Poised To Handily Beat TeaRadical Jesse Kelly Tomorrow In Arizona !!

[RBInMaine]

A PPP poll just out has Dem Ron Barber beating TeaNut Jesse Kelley tomorrow by a whopping 53-41 margin with the Green Party guy taking the rest. This is significant. Why is it happening? It is true that this being Gabby Giffords old seat and especially with her surviving the gunshot wound gives the outgoing incumbent a whopping 67% approval. (She was pretty damn popular anyhow.) And Barber was her longtime staffer who also was injured.

But it is MUCH more than that. Barber, like Giffords, is a truly moderate-progressive Dem in a swing district and a STAUNCH supporter of veterans, the elderly, Social Security, and Medicare. And he has pounded and pounded away on this much like Kathy Hochul did in upstate NY. Kelly is a crazy Teabagger who has called SS and Medicare a ponzi scheme and says he wants to eliminate corporate taxes, sock us with a 23% sales tax, and it is a district with 25,000 more registered R's than D's, but with 30% registered indies. In the last several decades, it has only supported a Dem for President ONCE and Obama is 44-50 there now. But, it is a district that will split its votes between R's and D's in state level elections.

The Dems have run a damn good campaign with both the Barber campaign and the DCCC and a Dem Pac running both good positive ads and hard-hitting attack ads that trap Kelly in his crazy talk about wanting to kill SS and Medicare. They also have 400 volunteers on the ground and on the phones. Barber is well liked in the district and has a good number of high level vets and even some prominent R's endorsing his candidacy. This is GOOD. Barber is by no means a "DINO." He is a true MODERATE, a bit more conservative in some areas, but also a very staunch supporter of Medicare and SS right to the hilt, and a fair problem-solving pragmatist. He represents the moderate values of his swing district very well. He is fairly reserved, folksy, and likeable at age 66, and this is the first time he has run for office.

This is the second time Kelly has run for this seat, and he almost beat Giffords in 2010 in the "Red Wave." She beat him by just two percent. In this race, Dems are VERY motivated, and Barber's positives are high vs. Kelly whose NEGATIVES are high, thanks to the great media campaign the Dems have run in this race. Kelly has tried, actually, to moderate himself and backwalk on his crazy positions. Nothing doing. They have used his own words against him in a big way and made him look like a LIAR. Kelly has tried to nationalize the race and the R's have dumped a good chunk of cash into this.

This reminds me so much of the Hochul campaign. And it is the MODEL for Dem campaigns in blue, purple, and some red districts. You HAMMER your radical TeaPublican opponent with their own crazy words, put THEM of DEFENSE, make THEM backtrack and look like a flipflopper, and go with a message of "Medicare, Medicare, Medicare, Social Security, Social Security, Social Security !!"

We need to look hard at this campaign, and LEARN FROM IT. And PS: We do NOT win if we do not win the MIDDLE. Plain and simple. The truly moderate Republicans are DEAD AND GONE. We need to be the progressive-moderate party because THAT is where the country is and NOT in TeaPublican Crazyland.

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. Fingers crossed, and excellent analysis.

[RBInMaine]

3. THANKS !

[PCIntern]

2. Great post - very informative and analytical. Thanks! k and r n/t

[RBInMaine]

4. APPRECIATED !

[1StrongBlackMan]

5. As a resident of this district ...

This news pleases me to no end.

Beyond Kelly's Medicare/SS crazy talk, he lost a bunch of folks when during a candidate's night, he responded to a question on taxation with, "if 10% is good enough for my lord; it's good enough for me." Many non-gopers noted, "he said it with 'that gaze in his eye'."

That please his running as a decorated veteran (but got out early, with no service connected injury); his running as a "business person" (running projects for his father's business ... a business that accepts $3+ million in government contracts, last year alone); and, his campaign manager attacked (verbally) a reporter that asked him about an endorsement he accepted from a white supremacist orrganization.

The guy is toast ... if the universe is operating on plane.

[RBInMaine]

6. Ya I saw that interview where the campaign manager had a cow at the reporter. These people are

rotten nasty TeaNUTS. Plain and simple. They are BULLIES (we have them in Maine, like our TeaNut guv - we are going to POUND their butts in November), and I loved it when in the debate Barber didn't bite at the smarmy gamesmanship question about who he was going to vote for for Prez. He turned on the asshat and said, "My focus is BEATING YOU in this race, and we are not going to talk about other races." THAT is how you deal with TeaWhackos.

You folks have run a great campaign in this one. And it was by no means a sure thing, even with the love of Gabby there. That incident is moving more and more into the past. It was very much about the ISSUES and the difference between these two candidates on both issues and style, and Barber and the Dems have POUNDED Kelly on both. In the fall, Barber will win again as the district becomes a bit bluer. Love it. A MODEL campaign.

I have been to NM and AZ. Great region of the country. Love it out there.

[1StrongBlackMan]

10. I agree ...

His balance of positive ads and attack ads (quoting Kelly's own words) is textbook.

But:

In the fall, Barber will win again as the district becomes a bit bluer. Love it. A MODEL campaign.

There's a new-comer to the scene ... Martha McSally. She's retired military and a decorated pilot-one of the 1st females to fly a combat mission (according to her literature), conservative and seems to have the Stupid-Speak gene in check. (But she IS a she and she sued the military for gender discrimination, so that might be a wash).

She gave Kelly a run for his money, but lost largely due to his name recognition and her being a new-comer. Many right-wingers and "independents" will take a closer look at her going into November.

[RBInMaine]

13. Barber needs to spend a lot of time courting the voters between now and the fall, and he needs to

keep on his theme of "Medicare and Social Security FOREVER." He needs to paint the Republicans as the defenders of the Ryan plan to kill Medicare and Social Security.

[1StrongBlackMan]

14. From what I understand ...

That is his plan ... Though I doubt he will paint ALL republicans as such; only his oponent.

[ret5hd]

7. Is this his "...and this is the first time he has run for office"...

or
"...the second time Kelly has run for this seat".

Those two phrases seem to be mutually contradictive.

[1StrongBlackMan]

9. Kelly ...

ran and lost to Gifford in 2010.

[RBInMaine]

11. 1st time for Barber, 2nd time for Kelly. Barber was a key Giffords staffer.

[ibegurpard]

8. great news!

but this is not a pick-up...it's maintaining a seat we already have.

[RBInMaine]

12. That is good though. It is a model campaign. They've done a great job.

[1StrongBlackMan]

15. I saw soon interesting news coverage this morning ...

One of the local news outlets (a fox affiliate) was "investigating" the effect of negative campaigning on the public. Predictably, most of the people interviewed said they were sick of it because it contained no useful information about the candidates and were unaffected by it.

Then, one person said something that I had thought; but had never really expressed out loud ... then I wondered why?

She said, generally negative ads did not sway her one way or the other because of they are generally out of context comments and facts. But in this race, the negative ads actually said a lot about the candidates

First, take Barber: his ads were Kelly's actual in context words ... bad for Kelly; but what makes it worse is although Kelly now SAYS he supports SS and Medicare, his plan does everything but support them. So this shows he is willing to say whatever he feels he must to get elected ... really bad for Kelly in a distrusting independent market.

Now take Kelly's ad ... He attempts to tie Barber to the boogiemen, President Obama and Nancy Pelosi, saying we need someone to fight in congress ... a sign of more obstruction ... but he points to Barber's support of &quot President) Obama's Cap and Trade Bill.

This woman was aware enough to realize that, first, there is no Cap and Trade Bill before congress ... it died in the Senate in 2010; and secondly, Cap and trade was not President Obama's bill ... it was a bipartisan bill.

I was shocked that any news outlet, let along a fox outlet, would air her remarks.

This is a very good sign.