There may not be enough white men in America to elect Trump president

[applegrove]

There may not be enough white men in America to elect Trump president

by Greg Sargent at the Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/04/there-may-not-be-enough-white-men-in-america-to-elect-trump-president/

"SNIP.............



That’s the provocative thesis advanced by David Bernstein in a new piece for Politico Magazine:


If Trump wins the GOP nomination, he will be testing the limits of a strategy that has long haunted the Republican Party. Since the civil rights era, the Republicans have relied heavily upon white male voters in order to overcome a disadvantage among minorities and some subsets of women. Mathematically, that was an easier strategy a half-century ago, when white men dominated the electorate. But as the GOP failed to broaden its coalition and the demographics of America have shifted dramatically, an ever-greater percentage of white men has been required to secure a GOP victory.

And if, as it appears, Trump’s opponent in the general election is Hillary Clinton, his lane becomes even narrower….

The math suggests Trump would need a whopping 70 percent of white men to vote for him. That’s more than Republicans have ever won before – more than the GOP won in the landslide victories of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and far more than they won even during the racially polarized elections of Barack Obama.

Click the link to see how Bernstein gets to that number. The short version is that between 1980, when Ronald Reagan won the presidency with 63 percent of the white male vote, and 2012, when Mitt Romney lost after getting 62 percent of the white male vote, the Hispanic and female shares of the electorate have soared. Winning approximately the same percentage of that demographic meant less and less over that period.



.............SNIP"

[monicaangela]

1. Maybe if we encourage

candidates to restrict gun ownership we could improve that number...oh, but then that same number can be attributed to blacks as well, however it appears white males are taking their own lives, while black males are more likely to be shot by someone else. What a sad state of affairs. Wouldn't it be better to just get guns off the streets? The white males appear to be waking up to the true facts of how they have been lied to in this country and it appears to be having an effect.

http://www.guns.com/2013/04/02/wp-study-whites-5x-more-likely-to-commit-suicide-blacks-5x-more-likely-to-be-homicide-victims-audio/

Should we remind all candidates of this fact so that maybe they might try to improve the conditions on Main Street? Of course I won't hold my breath for them to do it, they haven't cared in the past so I can't see any reason why they would start not, especially Donald Trump.

[Wednesdays]

2. The only play the GOP has left now

is either get people to stay home on Election Day (who would normally vote for Dems), or disenfranchisement. Because after this election cycle, the demographics keep getting worse and worse for them.

[L. Coyote]

3. There may not be enough STUPID white men ....

Most white men are not that stupid.

[Aristus]

4. THIS white male hasn't voted for a Republican in almost a quarter of a century.

I don't foresee that changing any time soon...

[progree]

5. Let's not forget dumb white females who favored Romney by a 13% margin over Obama

in 2012.

Hopefully with Hillary in the general election, that will change quite a bit, and more than offset the hopefully relatively few white males who would will vote against her because of her gender.

(To be fair, in comparison, white men favored Romney by 28% over Obama, a little more than twice the white women margin)

[Warren DeMontague]

6. Well, you know what that means.

[Warren DeMontague]

7. There might not be enough southerners, either.

[dembotoz]

8. they sure did ok in 2010

[progree]

9. Yup. And in 2014

[div class="excerpt" style="background-color:#CEF6FE;"][font face = courier new]Democrats' Margin over Republicans

` 2009 2015
` +20 ` -8 U.S. Senate
` +83` -59 U.S. House {1}
` `+8` -20 States with trifectas {2}
[/font]

Backquote symbols (`) are used for spacing to align the numbers, since DU software compresses 2 or more spaces in a row to one space. Please try to ignore.

{1} the U.S. House has the largest Republican majority in the House since 1928, according to
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2016

{2} Six years ago, the Democrats controlled 16 state governments (House/Senate/Governor), and the Republicans controlled 8. Now the Democrats control only 7 state governments, while the Republicans control 27. We have gone from +8 to -20, in just six years.

[Vinca]

10. This morning I heard that 11% of Muslims support Trump.

It's mind boggling.