Five shocking findings from Public Policy Polling's latest Iowa survey (PPP):

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Five shocking findings from Public Policy Polling's latest Iowa survey
by: desmoinesdem
Tue Aug 11, 2015 at 19:58:05 PM CDT

Public Policy Polling released its latest Iowa caucus numbers yesterday. As other recent surveys of Iowa Democrats have shown, Hillary Clinton still leads by a considerable margin, but her lead has shrunk since the spring, as Iowans have learned more about other contenders. PPP now has Clinton at 52 percent support among "usual Democratic primary voters," while Bernie Sanders has 25 percent, Martin O'Malley 7 percent, Jim Webb 3 percent, and Lincoln Chafee 1 percent. ...........................



1. Rand Paul's collapse.

Given the strong organization Ron Paul's presidential campaign built in Iowa, I never expected to see Rand Paul below 10 percent, let alone below 5 percent, in any survey of Iowa Republicans this year. If this poll is accurate, Paul's main problem isn't the fractured field of 17 candidates. It's his poor favorability ratings. PPP's Jensen commented in the polling memo, ..................


2. Trump leads, Huckabee in fifth place among evangelicals.

I have to agree with Ryan Anthony: the funniest statistic from PPP's latest Iowa poll is that Trump leads among self-identified evangelicals. The philandering, three-times-married guy who speaks crudely about women and said he has never asked God for forgiveness has 18 percent support among evangelical GOP respondents, almost equal to his 19 percent among non-evangelicals. Go figure. ............................


3. Trump leads, Rubio in sixth place among respondents who lean toward nominating the most electable candidate.

I appreciate that PPP surveys ask Republicans whether they are "more concerned with having the candidate who is the most conservative on the issues" or "more concerned with having the candidate who has the best chance of beating a Democrat in the general election." As you'd expect, Ted Cruz does a lot better (second only to Trump) among Iowa respondents in the "most conservative on the issues" crowd than among those who want to nominate someone electable.

But check out the candidate preferences of Iowa respondents who lean toward a candidate "who has the best chance of beating a Democrat in the general election": Trump is at 16 percent, Bush and Walker tie at 14 percent, Carson is at 13 percent (which itself is odd), Fiorina is at 11 percent (probably helped by her strong "Happy Hour" debate performance and lots of televised chatter about it).