Mathematically, if Scott Walker wins the GOP nomination he won't even win Wisconsin

[LynneSin]

When Tammy Baldwin was elected US Senator from Wisconsin back in 2012, 3,009,411 Wisconsin voters turned up to vote in that election. Because of that Ms Baldwin was to the US Senate and she is also a democrat. She also beat the Republican with 5% of the vote.

You look at the voter turnout for Scott Walker's elections:

2014 Midterms - 2,368,693 (21% less than the 2012 Presidential election cycle)
2012 Recall - 2,497,235 (17% less than the 2012 Presidential election cycle)
2010 Midterms - 2,133,244 (29% less than the 2012 Presidential election cycle and 27% less than the 2008 Presidential)

You see a trend here but that is overall votes. Take that a step further.

When Tammy Baldwin Won:
D: 1,547,104
R: 1,380,126

Scott Walker's 3 elections:
D: 1,115,943 (-27%)
R: 1,252,750 (-9%)

D: 1,162,785 (-25%)
R: 1,334,450 (-3% for 2012, btw more Republicans voted in this recall than voted for McCain in 2008)

D: 1,004,303 (-35% 2012, -60% 2008 - yes 1.68MM came out to vote for Obama)
R: 1,128,941 (-18% 2012, -11% 2008)

So you see what's going on here, In a nutshell when the election is not on a Presidential election year you can pretty much expect about a 25%-35% bleed and even more when it comes to the democratic vote. This isn't even a Wisconsin Trend this is across the country.

The votes that Walker has received during his elections are good, but they have never matched what the Democrats have brought in during a Presidential election cycle. The best that Walker has ever done was that recall election where he got 1.33M votes. Even tacking another 10% on that vote his total would less than what Baldwin received in 2012, Obama received in 2008 AND Feingold got in 2004 (1,632,697). Walker would have to somehow come up with 20% more Republican voters in his state to even be competitive and I think he's pissed off too many people to make that happen. Toss in the fact that Feingold is running for is old senate seat and I think Walker can pretty much kiss any chance of winning Wisconsin's electoral votes goodbye.

Don't feel bad Scottie, I highly doubt that New Jersey will give it's electoral votes to Chris Christie. After watching Christie dry hump the owner of the Dallas Cowboys on national TV, the Giants and Eagles fans of New Jersey would rather drink the tap water of New Jersey first before voting Christie.

It's a shame that we have this slide on Democratic votes during non-Presidential elections but it is one thing we can count on is that the democrats will show up to vote during Presidential election cycles.

[HereSince1628]

1. Yes, I've been saying this for a while...WI is liklely a blue state in the general...but

here's another dynamic to ponder...

In WI, a general election brings out ~50-70+% of registered voters. A primary typically brings out only 14%, and voters don't have to declare party affiliation to vote in the primary.

These things really open the state up to manifest effects for a 'surging' candidate and/or really good ground game.

Wisconsin is a bit late in the primary elections so it will likely align with the national trending pattern, but it's a state that, at least on paper, is in play for most of the democratic hopefuls. If the primary is still competitive when WI votes, WI will be interesting. A big part of the general election surge is younger voters who may be more influenced by peers than big media spending.

[Gothmog]

2. I agree that Walker would not carry Wisconsin if he is the nominee

Walker appeals solely to white voters and he could not carry Wisonsin in a presidential year http://www.salon.com/2015/07/14/scott_walkers_white_man_problem_his_narrow_appeal_is_his_achilles_heel/

When you look at Walker’s victories in Wisconsin, you start to understand why he’s so gung-ho on winning Iowa. In the 2014 gubernatorial election, a full 88 percent of the electorate in Wisconsin was white, and Walker won 56 percent of the white vote. African Americans comprised just six percent of the vote, and Walker lost them 90-10. In 2012, the recall election, 91 percent of Wisconsin voters were white, and Walker won 57 percent of their votes. Among the five percent of voters who were black, Walker lost 94-5. His success has been built on appealing to an overwhelmingly white electorate in elections that never coincided with a presidential race. (Obama comfortably won Wisconsin in 2012 despite losing the white vote in the state to Romney.) That will serve him well in Republican primary contests, but he won’t enjoy those advantages in the general election.

Walker has been busy alienating minority voters and women voters which will mean that he has no chance even in Wisconsin of winning in a presidential year.

[Scuba]

3. Are you kidding? He will get 150,000,000 votes just in Waukesha County!

[Jimbo S]

4. I think the Wisconsin primary would be interesting

I could see Democratic-leaning voters crossing over and voting en mass for Walker's #1 challenger. The hatred for Walker is that strong (plus social media) it could happen, just to spite him. Wisconsin is an open primary state. However, I don't involve myself in Republican politics, but in this case I may do it because with Walker all rules are out the window.

[Lee-Lee]

5. How well developed is his machine there?

It seems to be very effective at getting his people too the polls, so that could have some effect if it is turned on full bore for a Presidential year.

[forthemiddle]

6. Don't rely on President Obama turnout #s

If you look in 2000 and 2004 Wisconsin election results, Bush lost those elections by less that .05%.
In fact, in 2000, if Buchanan had not been on the ballot, and theoretically, those votes went to Bush, he would have WON Wisconsin (somewhat like the Nader effect in Florida).

Will Clinton voters match the enthusiasm of Obama? I just don't see it. Obama energized the young, the minorities, hell everyone that wanted change. What change is Hillary promising. Not only that, with very few exceptions, history tells us that the same party rarely wins more than two elections in a row.

Do not pin all your hopes on 2000, and 2004 I see much different dynamics at stake here.

I predict a GOP President in 2016 if Hillary is our candidate. I hope I'm wrong.

[LynneSin]

7. Yes but remember Feingold will also be on the ticket

So Feingold is going to help whomever the eventual nominee is for the Democratic ticket because Feingold is the winner of the most votes achieved by any voter in the state of Wisconsin. I can't imagine people voting for someone like Feingold then crossing over and voting for the likes of Scott Walker or any of the GOP.