General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSo the new National Quinnipiac poll was published yesterday
As expected, Hillary still has a substantial lead:
I tried to post results but the tabular nature of the results gets hosed and is unreadable, please go to the link and look at question 5, and the trend for question 5.
While Hillary has been pretty steady, Bernie has nearly doubled support this month from 8 points to 15 points continuing a trend that doubled support last month when he jumped 4 points to 8 points.
That's not the bit I found interesting though. More or less what I expected. What I didn't expect was question 6:
Hillary's numbers are nearly double Bernies.
Question 19 is also interesting:
45 favorable
47 unfavorable
5 Don't know enough
Clearly, Hillary has a problem with independent voters 39F - 51U.
Question 39 is Bernie's turn:
19 favorable
18 unfavorable
62 Don't know enough
But the big question that I wish they had asked about Bernie also is:
39 - Yes
53 - No
Again, those pesky I voters are in play again here.
If I were working on Hillary's campaign, I would be concerned about these results.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Everyone on her staff expects her numbers to go up soon after her big June rally.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)It's not likely her favorables will get better. As Sanders becomes better known, it's very likely his favorables will improve. To the point where he starts taking votes from Hillary... she is likely getting some support from those who view her unfavorably, but support her anyway because they don't know any other candidate or want to support a front runner. I'm quite sure her campaign is worried about Sanders even at this early stage, but simply haven't come up with a solution.
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,187 posts)Among Democrats her favorability rating is 85%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us05282015_U32trdf.pdf
Page 12.
So your assertion that "she is likely getting some support from those who view her unfavorably" doesn't appear to be supported by the facts.
I am confident she will address her weakness among independents to the point she can mitigate her losses among them in the general election as the current occupant of the White House did.
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,187 posts)And this is after she is has been a pinata for the press for how long ? The past three months?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)any campaign, worth their salt, will try to correct that this early. It's nice to know we have rank beginners running it. (Like city council races where sometimes there are polls).
In other words, like any other campaign, it will be tweaked, or they are chums.
For the record, the rest of the campaigns are also looking into internals and will tweak accordingly.
swilton
(5,069 posts)Hillary already has name recognition - she should be ahead....she has been around for decades and the thought of her as a presidential candidate has also been around for decades. Sanders in comparison has minimal name recognition. Given the positive exposure (Sanders has charisma, credibility, and says the right words) Sanders can only go up and Hillary can only go down....from a biased perspective
Hillary's negatives have always been of concern - within and outside her party. Should she win the primary, this will become a problem for her and the rest of us in the general election.
Thanks for doing the work of posting this....
peecoolyour
(336 posts)John Nichols @NicholsUprising
Quinnipiac Poll gives @BernieSanders 15%: higher than Bush, Walker, Rubio, Huckabee, Carson & all other R contenders.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)bigwillq
(72,790 posts)for all the names listed.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)What they can tell you is where things stand now, and how that stand is changing now.
That leads to how campaigns will try and move the numbers in these polls. The tiny "don't know" in Clinton's favorability means it will be hard for her to move that favorability rating much. If Clinton can't move large numbers of "no" to "yes", she can't rely on a "reintroduction"-ish strategy. They already know who she is. So she's not going to do that, she's going to have to use another strategy. Currently, she's using inevitability.
Sanders (and O'Malley) is in a completely different situation. That large "don't know" means he needs to introduce himself to voters. And his challenge will be getting that introduction to be positive. The large increase in Sanders's support between the polls indicates that so far, Sanders is introducing himself positively. But he's done nowhere near enough of it.
But yes, the poll tells you jack shit about November 2016.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts), there is a lot of time for messaging and campaign promises and debates to even better her numbers. She's has got to screw up royally to get derailed. Something like a 47% Romney type of comment, or picking a Palin type of co runner, or some thing that has her walking back her current stand regarding her fight for rasiing mim wage, a new talking point on gutting ACA or walking back her strong immigration stand. I don't see any of that happening
jeff47
(26,549 posts)First, there's very few undecided. That means she doesn't have much room to change it. People already like her or dislike her, and it's harder to change an established opinion than getting a "don't know" into "favorable".
Second, that favorability rating is underwater. That usually means the support is not very strong. "A mile wide and an inch deep". That indicates there's an opening for someone else to come along and vacuum up those unhappy supporters. If this was a "needs to screw up royally" situation, the favorability score would be much better.
Long story short, Clinton needs to "run out the clock" on the primaries. The sooner they end, the better for her. And the less exposure to all Democratic candidates in the media, the better for her. Because she's in front, and she's unlikely to gain more support because of that tiny "don't know" in favorability.
Sanders or O'Malley need the opposite: They need lots of exposure to get those "don't knows" into "favorable" in order to get reluctant Clinton supporters to switch. Basically, what Obama did in 2008.
hootinholler
(26,449 posts)That coupled with your cogent points is cause for concern.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)In fact, based on those numbers, if the election were held today she would win, hands down.