The Republicans are desperate to win the Senate this year because....

[Lochloosa]

there will be 34 seats up for reelection in '16 and 23-25 (depending on this years races) will be Republicans seats.

They know the fat lady is singing....

[Proud Public Servant]

1. Though if you look at the map

It's not like we've got a lot of shots at pickups. Mostly the teahadists of 2010, I would suspect: WI, PA, IL, maybe OH, Maybe NH. That's enough, obviously, but I suspect we're living with a Senate that seesaws back and forth for some time to come.

[Lochloosa]

2. Florida could definitely turn. Rubio is up and he only won by 43% (I think).

It was a three way race last time with Crist running as an independent.

[MohRokTah]

4. There will be at least 8 competive GOP seats in 2016.

There will only be 2 competitive Democratic seats.

Remember, these seats are from the GOP wave of 2010.

[Proud Public Servant]

6. I'd be curious to know

What your other three are (besides the 5 I just named -- PA, OH, IL, NH, and WI)? FL and what else? NC seems a stretch given how much trouble Hagan is having hanging on; IA won't be in play if Grassley runs for re-election; and every other state the GOP has to defend is very solidly red. I can't see the other two.

[MohRokTah]

7. NC has been going purple for a long time and it's a presidential election year

Remember, Obama took NC in 2008.

Florida is definitely in play. Rubio is already in trouble there and if he runs for president and fails it'll go even worse for him.

IA will be in play because it has been moving purple, too. Again, it's a presidential election year and as you can see with this year's tossup race, it can be won.

What you're discounting is the presidential election year effect.

[Proud Public Servant]

11. NC isn't that purple

Obama won it by a whisker in 2008, lost it in 2012, and its incumbent Democratic senator (who owes her seat to the Obama wave) is in serious trouble. It's also a state in which Obama beat Hillary handily; there's no reason to expect the population will turn out for her in the same numbers they did for him.

Iowa's long been truly purple (the governorship seesaws, the Senate seats have been split for decades), but I know Iowa politics a bit and Grassley walks on water there; I don't see him being unseated, so I don't see the state in play unless he voluntarily resigns.

I hope you're right, of course, but I'm more skeptical. But 6 are surely in play.

[MohRokTah]

12. If Georgia goes purple this year, all bets are off for the GOP in 2016.

And it looks like Perdue is doing as much as he can to completely fuck up his chances:

[Historic NY]

3. Just think how much they can defund and overturn...

puts them in great position for 16. The blocking maneuver in the event they can't win the WH.

[CaptainTruth]

5. Thanks for the post, it's good to keep the bigger picture in mind.

It looks like there are enough competitive senate races in 2016 we stand a good chance of keeping & holding the senate through 2018. Dear lord I hope ... I don't know how much more Republican sabotage our country can take.

[Robbins]

8. 2016

There are 6 seats that were elected In 2010 from States Obama won up for reelection

1:Illinois-The dems had a candiate who had a family banking problem In 2010.This Is a presidential election.Kirk's so called moderate
behaver Is undercut by all the times he has voted to fillerbuster.Pat Quinn despite being unpopular looks to win reelection as Governor
this year.
2:Wisconsin-Remember Scott Walker has tough race this year.There could be a rematch from 2010 since Russ Feingold In past hinted
he may to get his seat back
3 A-Toomey Is in danger in Presidential year.Wolf beating Corbett this year will help dems In 2016
4:NH-This Is presidential year In NH.Dems have shot
5:Florida-In a presidential year Rubio Is vulenable after he loses republican presidential nomination to Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz or Rand Paul
6:Ohio-A democrat carrying Ohio could help beat Portman

[MineralMan]

9. GOTV 2014! We can win if we do that.

Let's just do it.

[Lochloosa]

10. I'm feeling better about '14.

Fingers crossed and pounding phones.