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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums5 Reasons Why Harry Reid Will Likely Keep His Job, Despite Washington Pundits' Predictions
http://www.alternet.org/tea-party-and-right/5-reasons-why-harry-reid-will-likely-keep-his-job-despite-washington-pundits***SNIP
Trend 1: State Dynamics Matter, Not National Numbers
The reason Washington pundits are saying that 2014 could be big for Republicans starts with a baseline. Democrats have to defend 21 Senate seats in 2014, while Republicans only have to defend 14 seats. Thus, in midterm elections, when the presidents party is past its honeymoon with voters and tens of millions of presidential election year voters stay home, Democrats are disadvantaged, the conventional wisdom begins. Pundits point to statistics, such as the fact that Mitt Romney beat President Obama in 2012 in eight of the 21 states where Democratic senators face 2014 races, as signs of trouble . Thats one way that the endangered Democrats list arises, pointing to Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Virginia and West Virginia.
***SNIP
Trend 2: Senate Democrats Have A Positive Record To Run On
Before we get into the reasons why the 2014 election will be fought more over local issues than national themes, step back and consider this basic political fact: Senate Democrats can point to constructive legislation theyve passedeven if it was blocked by the House, whereas Republicans can mostly boast of trying to impede real progress. Senate Democrats have passed comprehensive immigration reform, updated employment discrimination laws and toughened the militarys sexual harrassment rules. Next week, the Senate will vote on an unemployment insurance extension, with Democrats providing the majority for passage.
***SNIP
Trend 3: Attacking Obamacare Isnt A Sure Bet
Despite the Koch's brothers wishes, the federal government isn't about to disappear. Moreover, the domestic agenda contains more than one itemoverturning Obamacare. But theres little indication that many campaigns are going to offer a broader message, even though Republican strategists not aligned with the Kochs are saying that bashing Obamacare isn't going to be enough to win.
***SNIP
Trend 4: Dont Forget The Pro-Obamacare Voters
On March 31, Obamacare enrollment will close until next fall. Thats why the President has been appearing on all kinds of broadcasts recentlysuch as "Ellen" last Thursdayto remind key uninsured constituencies, such as young people and women, to get a health plan. No one analyzing the 2014 Senate races has noted that Obamacare beneficiaries might become a voting block in battleground states in what historically are low-turnout federal elections.
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5 Reasons Why Harry Reid Will Likely Keep His Job, Despite Washington Pundits' Predictions (Original Post)
xchrom
Mar 2014
OP
Demeter
(85,373 posts)1. Is there another Democrat who wants it?
Because I'm not wild about Harry...
Demeter
(85,373 posts)2. Or maybe, you'd prefer Carmen, X
xchrom
(108,903 posts)3. i love her!