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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWealthy and powerful who wanted us to replace Yanukovich in Ukraine are learning they were wrong.
The mega-bankers thought this whole Ukraine coup would just be an unmitigated cash cow for them. With a Harvard educated technocrat replacing the democratically elected, and less than cooperative, Yanukovich, they knew the Ukraine would be a gold mine for vulture capitalists like Mitt Romney's "Baine Capital." Added to that, they imagined, would be the boost to their World-wide "austerity" strategy which would accompany a U.S. installed "interim government" agreeing to the IMF's radical budget cutting demands.
Instead they now may face non-repayment of their sizable loans to Russia and her allies, as well as the loss of any future profits from those sources. This is why Business Administration majors at U. S. Universities should be required to take a few hours of World History before receiving their degrees.
Russia warns could 'reduce to zero' economic dependency on US.
Moscow (AFP) - Russia could reduce to zero its economic dependency on the United States if Washington agreed sanctions against Moscow over Ukraine, a Kremlin aide said on Tuesday, warning that the American financial system faced a "crash" if this happened.
"We would find a way not just to reduce our dependency on the United States to zero but to emerge from those sanctions with great benefits for ourselves," said Kremlin economic aide Sergei Glazyev. He told the RIA Novosti news agency Russia could stop using dollars for international transactions and create its own payment system using its "wonderful trade and economic relations with our partners in the East and South."
Russian firms and banks would also not return loans from American financial institutions, he said. "An attempt to announce sanctions would end in a crash for the financial system of the United States, which would cause the end of the domination of the United States in the global financial system." He said that economic sanctions imposed by the European Union would be a "catastrophe" for Europe, saying that Russia could halt gas supplies "which would be beneficial for the Americans" and give the Russian economy a useful "impulse."
(snip)
Read more at: http://news.yahoo.com/russia-warns-could-reduce-zero-economic-dependency-us-083926261.html
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Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)another_liberal
(8,821 posts)I'm not sure I follow?
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Russia threatening to do all that shit in the article worries me far more than them trying to lasso Crimea back into the Federation.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)They know it. We know it. Empire is on its last legs.
We are so far over extended in debt, we have no jobs, and we have all this money going out to keep the empire kicking. History repeats.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Packing it in over the course of the 90's, rolling up the foreign entanglements, letting our alliances shoulder more of the weight.
But noooo, had to go on some Crusader-style middle east adventurism...
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)We had a chance after Clinton. But this country is so full of idiots that when bush was selected they all went, oh goody, the uniter is in office! We're saved!
Lies, lies, lies. And the people sucked it up.
This website grew from that stolen election, but now even it has gone to shit. Way too many here would rather just piss on each other than join together and face the hard fucking Truth of dieing empire, dieing environment, and nukes all over the planet waiting to be dropped from bombers, shot by missiles or flow into the pacific. Nope, they'd rather snipe at each other.
Way too many fake humans on this site. I saw one attacking you a few days ago and see them on thread after thread. Fucking sickening. Oh well, I am an old man and won't have to watch this shit much longer. But I feel bad for the youngsters.
warrant46
(2,205 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Down that slope we go. It could very well be a crash.
Take away our ability to borrow money and with the idiots we have in this country we will be a third world nation in no time flat. A third world nation like Venezuela who the US, instead of helping them rise up, we are crushing with economic burdens. The rest of the Americas see it and they will laugh their asses off as we get what's coming.
Our bloated, bubbled up economy crashed back in 2008, and we're saved only because we borrowed trillions of capital notes. And gave it to the same people who designed the crash. Gawd damn we are stupid!!
warrant46
(2,205 posts)
bemildred
(90,061 posts)
kenny blankenship
(15,689 posts)Last edited Sat Mar 8, 2014, 12:14 PM - Edit history (1)
Despite pledges given by his predecessor to Gorbachev that we would not expand NATO's military frontier eastward, given in exchange for not getting in the way of German reunification. Now we have missiles in Poland (intended to peel back Russia's deterrent force and render them vulnerable to attack) and military alliances & joint exercises with other former Warsaw Pact countries. Dangling NATO inclusion in front of GEORGIA and UKRAINE, both former SSRs on Russia's southern flank, and pouring billions into destabilizing them (Color Revolutions) is nothing outside the trajectory of aggression set by Clinton. US foreign policy under Clinton, Bush and now Obama is following the SAME STRATEGY : to encircle Russia and carve parts of the former USSR away from it, one by one, eventually leading to destabilization of the Russian Federation state itself. Then there was the Clinton era "Reconstruction" of Russia by Team Rubin, and IMF Chicago school boys, which resulted in economic disaster for Russia, as seen in collapsing production and GDP contraction by FIFTY PERCENT, widespread hunger, declining life expectancy, deaths outstripping births (a trend that was reversed only last year), the rise of the Oligarchs, etc. - a slide into anarchic social dissolution which has taken more than a decade to halt.
And who was it who signed into law the Iraqi Liberation Act, calling for US action to bring about regime change in Iraq? That was Bill Clinton. Who was it who just COULDN'T let go of Iraq, long after it was clear that their military was a shambles and their OMG! weapons of mass destruction were, if not eliminated to the last drop, then certainly no longer existent on a scale to actually threaten their neighbors? That was Bill Clinton again. if he had trouble with Republicans he bombed Iraq. If he had Bimbo Eruptions, he bombed Iraq. Meanwhile, thousands of innocent Iraqis died due to the sanctions regime which in effect strangled imports of food and medicine. This savage farce played out for his entire 8 year blow job Administration. A small price to pay, according to Clinton Sec. of State Albright, for the failed state basket case Iraq has become under our empire.
polly7
(20,582 posts)FarCenter
(19,429 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Don't you mean the banks? Putin is threatening to default on loans taken out from western banks ... which, if history will serve as a guide, means this will not end well ... for Putin, as Putin needs western banking than western banking needs Putin and the world economy (beyond the US economy) needs western banking far more than it needs Putin.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)I don't know much about Russia except that Russia is sitting on the largest known source of oil on the planet. And a very large piece of land. A piece of land that with global warming is going to be much easier to exploit in the years to come.
I don't know about this you wrote: Russia is going to "...default on loans taken out from western banks". I don't believe that. What I do believe is that they will call their loans they have made to prop up the western banks, or at least quit loaning the nearly bankrupt western banks any more oil dollars.
Which brings us to the oil dollars. Do you know what that means? Basically it means the dollar is propped up because oil is sold in dollars. Even Russian oil. If Russia decides to sell its oil for rubles, then the dollar goes way down, since what is there to keep it up? We are in far more debt than Russia is.
China and Russia, et al, have discussed this. If they decide to do it -remove the dollar from oil - there will be a world of pain. They don't want pain, but if they are being pained, they may do it.
Is this news to some of you? Did I have to repeat all that?
Chan790
(20,176 posts)for a country that imports in excess of 75% of its food.
They can't eat oil or natural gas so sanctions mean a starvation-purge. Who other than Europe and US has the excess-food-production to sell them that much food? Nobody. The only reason Russia doesn't appear higher on lists of food-poor nations is because those lists are generated by % of GDP and for all the food Russia imports, it's a small portion of their large GDP compared to Algeria and Libya. As I told another poster last night, this is hot air and a game of chicken for Russia. (China barely produces enough food to feed China. China cannot be Russia's breadbasket through a long embargo.)
They need to bully us out of sanctions and into a Crimean referendum because they can really only hold out for so long (months, not years) before they have to concede in-full and let Crimea go...strategic naval ports and all. I don't care what energy resources they have, the Putin regime will not survive a mass-starvation event of even a few months any more than Czar Nicholas survived the last one.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Like I say, if push comes to shove, Russia can shove. If we do like you say and starve them, they will shove. And most of our exports are food so then our farmers go broke.
This idea that we can keep shoving others around is about dead.
But nice of you to point out your imperialist ideas like taking Crimea away. Good to see what is most on others minds. Sadly.
Chan790
(20,176 posts)My point is that their threats are empty. They can't cut off the gas as they've threatened to do in response to sanctions for the same reason we can't use threats to stop buying Saudi oil to bully the Saudis into improving their human rights record. (Something that gets no attention but the US has been trying to do since Carter was in the White House...we have no leverage to make them other than threatening to stop buying Saudi oil. It's empty, they know it's empty and we know they know it's an empty threat.)
They're co-dependency situations.
You've seemed to have only picked up on half of the US, EU/Russia codependency situation to assume they have an upper-hand. I was pointing out the other side of that apple. They don't have any upper-hand, they're as fucked as we are if they don't back down. The balls in their court, back down or metaphorically shoot everybody at the table (themselves included) in the head. They're not going to cut off the gas or zero their dependency on US trade, we're not going to sanction them beyond some token measure.
The Russians and RF are going to bloviate, the US and EU are going to bloviate...at some point, some agreement will be reached that allows all sides to claim they won. Most likely, Russia gets to keep their port, Ukraine gets to maintain its borders and the US gets what it wants by moving Kiev from the Russian sphere of influence to the Western sphere of influence. (For a model of how this works, study the Cuban missile crisis. The Soviets didn't actually back down, despite what most Americans believed at the time...the US traded Jupiter missiles to be withdrawn from Turkey and Lombardy (NW Italy) for Soviet withdrawal of I/MRBMs from Cuba.)
Then everybody will deny the situation was ever as terse as it really was.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)One, perhaps both, of us should re-read the article because this:
is what I read.
Though, as you discuss, the article did speak to Russia going off the US Dollar as the benchmark currency. Remember the last country that started making noise about doing that? The world economic communities rejected the idea (and there was a US "military adventure" that commenced about that time ... but I'm certain that was just a coincidence!
)
I suspect that the world economies, including China, "trusts" the dollar (and the underlying western banking system) more than Russian currency, and the underlying, though western dependent, Russian banking system.
Lastly, China is unlikely to support anything that significantly damages the US dollar because it holds far to much US paper ... they would be hurting their own investment to what end?
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)It is a mess. That's why we don't go bombing countries that can defend themselves. But by gawd let a little one suggest de-oiling the dollar? Boom!
Hey, maybe someone is thinking that Russia would not pay its debts. But I doubt any serious leader would do that. Oh, Ukraine owes big bucks to Russia, tho. Partly why this mess has boiled over, so who knows how far anyone will go?
And we do have China over a bushel. We buy their junk and send them lots of food. We are a great trading partner. Europe trades with Russia a lot, taking oil and gas.
All we can do is hope it doesn't come to push/shove, we'll starve you first bs.
Nice to have Obama in office rather than another republican, eh?
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)Take a look at a map of the Arctic coastline of Russia.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)I don't think Russia is ever going to complain about global warming. GW already is opening up the Arctic to more days of warmth.
When I look at sea surface temperature maps, I am struck by how the warm water is steadily flowing from the Atlantic north into the Arctic along the Russian coastline. The ice is melting.
Tin foil time: If Russia was suspected of making a climate change machine, looking at the Arctic could provide evidence thereof.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Bases. And that's their turf.
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)After all, if Russia were to do what is suggested by that official, and it were to have even half the effect he warns of, we taxpayers would most likely be asked to bail out the banks again to cover their losses.
Downwinder
(12,869 posts)currently goes to the EU. Which would also impact Australia's coal production.
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)A pipeline or two might have to be built, but China could afford that.
The explanation for why Russia hasn't gone to eastern markets already with its gas and oil is probably because they wanted to maintain influence over European policy decisions. If that influence is so useless as to allow what is happening in Ukraine, they may reason: Why bother?
Strelnikov_
(7,772 posts)translates to "we'll sell our fossil fuel to the Chinese and Koreans, and take payment in Roubles".
Putin has long been nursing ambitions of using Russia's vast oil and gas supplies as an instrument of power. In the mid '90s, after 15 years in the KGB, Putin went back to school, attending the St. Petersburg Mining Institute. He wrote a dissertation titled "Toward a Russian Transnational Energy Company." The topic: how to use energy resources for grand strategic planning.
“In the early stages of pro-market reforms in Russia the state temporarily lost strategic control over the mineral resources industry. This led to the stagnation and disintegration of the geological sector built over many decades…. However, today the market euphoria of the early years of economic reform is gradually giving room to a more balanced approach that... recognises the need for a regulatory role of the state.”
- Vladimir Putin, “Toward a Russian Transnational Energy Company.”, PhD dissertation, St. Petersburg Mining Institute
”The Rouble must become a more widespread means of international transactions. To this end, we need to open a stock exchange in Russia to trade in oil, gas, and other goods to be paid for in Roubles. Our goods are traded on global markets. Why are not they traded in Russia?”
— President Vladimir Putin, Speaking before the full Russian parliament, Cabinet and international reporters, May 2006
”Russia has found the Achilles’ heel of the US colossus. In concert with its oil-producing partners and the rising powerhouse economies of the East, Russia is altering the foundations of the current US-led liberal global oil-market order, insidiously working to undermine its US-centric nature and slanting it toward serving first and foremost the energy-security needs and the geopolitical aspirations of the rising East”
- W. Joseph Stroupe, author, Russian Rubicon: Impending Checkmate of the West, as quoted in the Asia Times, November 22, 2006
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)Thank you for posting this.
jakeXT
(10,575 posts)another_liberal
(8,821 posts)I'm enjoying the existence of life on Earth.
Spider Jerusalem
(21,786 posts)I'm kind of gobsmacked at the sheer American arrogance on display in the idea that somehow it was the sinister machinations of the CIA, US State Department, and "the West" that were responsible for what happened in Ukraine, as though the Ukrainian people themselves had no part in it.
GeorgeGist
(25,323 posts)Dontcha know?
Demeter
(85,373 posts)another_liberal
(8,821 posts)They were the sincere, determined and largely unsuspecting pawns in our game, however, our diplomats were running the game:
jakeXT
(10,575 posts)
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)I did not know that. A small fraction of five billion, no doubt, will buy a lot of street protests, especially in a place like Ukraine.
Spider Jerusalem
(21,786 posts)without the protesters the US would have had no hope of thinking they could influence events and the US wouldn't have been able to foment such protests on their own through the use of agents provocateurs. There's a difference between trying to take advantage of a situation and being in control of it.
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)To do our bidding somehow, and we do so with surprising regularity. For proof of that, one need only look to what is happening in Venezuela as we sit here.
Spider Jerusalem
(21,786 posts)there's the arrogance of belief in American power to influence events, again.
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)I would call it an acceptance of the unpleasant reality regarding how we in this country tend to throw around our self-ordained national exceptionalism.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,199 posts)
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)We wanted the same geeky-looking, Harvard educated and easily manipulated "technocrat" in charge who is now the so-called "interim President" of Ukraine. He is our figurehead (ours and the IMF's, that is). Surely I don't need to post that youtube video of Victoria Nuland's "Fuck the EU" comments again, do I?
Oh, alright. Here it is:
CJCRANE
(18,184 posts)I hope it doesn't go FUBAR.
We need to learn to get neocons away from the levers of power and influence.
Let's learn to cooperate instead of going with this "last man standing" neocon BS.
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)That is one thing when if you screw up the corporation you work for just declares corporate bankruptcy, and you start all over. It is an entirely different matter when the risks one is taking concern stakes like war and peace.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)another_liberal
(8,821 posts)Believe what you want to believe, not those lying facts, eh?
We would never, never, ever overthrow a democratically elected government (Iran, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, etc.) now would we?
polly7
(20,582 posts)for empire, resources and profit ..... we're just noble and good that way.
http://www.alternet.org/world/35-countries-where-us-has-supported-fascists-druglords-and-terrorists?akid=11570.44541.DMoSeo&rd=1&src=newsletter966557&t=12
http://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/clumsy-greed-us-and-west-full-display-ukraine-disaster?page=0%2C0&akid=11580.44541.APn4uz&rd=1&src=newsletter967470&t=19
http://dissidentvoice.org/2014/03/the-looting-of-ukraine-has-begun/
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)Despite all established examples in the historical record, we never would.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)<...>
A high ranking Kremlin source told RIA Novosti that Glazyev was speaking in the capacity of an "academic" and his personal opinion did not reflect the official Kremlin policy.
...fantasy. Russia has zero economic leverage.
Russia warns US over sanctions as heavier troops seen in Crimea
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024629360
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)And a sizable portion of that used by the rest of Europe. Yet you argue they have, "Zero economic leverage?"
Talk about "Pure fantasy."
ProSense
(116,464 posts)"They supply a majority of eastern Europe's natural gas . . And a sizable portion of that used by the rest of Europe. Yet you argue they have, 'Zero economic leverage?'"
...they do it for free, right? Europe can't get energy elsewhere, huh? And what does that have to do with economic leverage against the U.S.?
Zero. The person is fantasizing.
FarCenter
(19,429 posts)– an estimated US$126 billion. FDI inflows to the Russian Federation jumped by 83% to US$94 billion
making it the world's third largest recipient of FDI for the first time ever (figure 5). The rise was
predominantly ascribed to the large acquisition by BP (United Kingdom) of 18.5% of Rosneft (Russia
Federation) as part of Rosneft's US$57 billion acquisition of TNK-BP, which is owned by a company
registered in the British Virgin Islands. FDI in the Russian Federation is expected to keep pace with its
2013 performance as the Russian Government's Direct Investment Fund – a US$10 billion fund to
promote FDI in the country – has been very actively deployed in collaboration with foreign partners, for
example funding a deal with Abu Dhabi’s Finance Department to invest up to US$5 billion in Russian
infrastructure.
http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/webdiaeia2014d1_en.pdf
There is far more Western capital tied up in Russia than there is Russian money in foreign banks.
Which Major U.S. Firms Are at Risk With High Exposure to Russia?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/which-major-us-firms-are-at-risk-with-high-exposure-to-russia-2014-03-03
If Russia nationalized US assets, there would be a severe market correction as US companies wrote down their investments.
Russia would continue to trade with the EU, Japan, China and most other countries, because they are not stupid enough to follow the US over the cliff.
Benton D Struckcheon
(2,347 posts)Russia is almost entirely dependent on revenue from energy sales to Europe for its foreign exchange.
Here's a breakdown of their exports:
The following export product groups represent the highest dollar value in Russian global shipments during 2012. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from Russia.
Mineral fuels including oil: $375,423,947,000 (71.6% of total exports)
Iron and steel: $22,601,664,000 (4.3%)
Fertilizers: $11,176,846,000 (2.1%)
Inorganic chemicals: $7,835,699,000 (1.5%)
Machinery: $7,609,061,000 (1.5%)
Aluminum: $7,281,329,000 (1.4%)
Wood: $6,731,569,000 (1.3%)
Cereals: $6,246,547,000 (1.2%)
Copper: $5,787,339,000 (1.1%)
Organic chemicals: $4,516,890,000 (0.9%)
That's the export profile of a third world country dependent on the export of extracted raw materials for its survival. The idea that the West would suffer from Russia becoming economically independent (which is impossible for any country, but doubly so for a raw materials exporter like Russia) is laughable in the extreme.
They have reserves, and they are relatively well-governed fiscally, so they could last a while if they cut off Europe from its gas lines. But Europe would find a way, and is indeed doubtless in the process of rapidly finding a way right now, to get by. Russia has no alternative but to sell that energy. It can't survive otherwise.
Benton D Struckcheon
(2,347 posts)The following export product groups represent the highest dollar value in American global shipments during 2012. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of US overall exports.
Machinery: $215,165,486,000 (13.9% of total exports)
Electronic equipment: $162,067,973,000 (10.5%)
Mineral fuels including oil: $137,532,495,000 (8.9%)
Vehicles excluding trains and streetcars: $132,926,223,000 (8.6%)
Aircraft and spacecraft: $104,266,487,000 (6.7%)
Optical, technical and medical apparatus: $83,470,292,000 (5.4%)
Pearls, precious stones metals and coins: $71,664,266,000 (4.6%)
Plastics: $58,848,633,000 (3.8%)
Organic chemicals: $46,174,233,000 (3%)
Pharmaceutical products: $40,061,845,000 (2.6%)
http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-states-top-10-exports/2001
The thing to note, in contrast to Russia, besides anything else that stands out, is that if you total up the top 10 export categories for the US, they in total amount to 68% of the total, or three percent LESS than Russia's dependence on just one thing: "Mineral fuels including oil". THAT is the difference between a well-rounded economy with a diverse economic base, and a third world country with a narrow economic base.
