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AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 11:55 AM Mar 2013

Riding The Rubicon: The Doomer's Curse.

Last edited Sat Mar 9, 2013, 04:59 AM - Edit history (4)

I've been finding a lot of good stuff on the 'Net lately, and this piece is no exception. Though originally about the BP disaster, it's a piece that can apply to doomsday proponents, wannabe prophets/Cassandras, particularly Climate Change and Peak Oil doomers(but also in general).....and coming from a guy who admits his own tendency to lean in that direction.

Here's the link: http://ridingtherubicon.blogspot.com/2010/06/doomers-curse.html

Probably one of the best pieces I've read in a long time on this subject.

Edit: I apologize for removing the excerpt, but Skinner informed that I'd breached the Forum's copyright rules, because it was too long. I assure you that this was NOT intentional and I have since removed the whole thing, which hopefully, rectified the mistake.

32 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Riding The Rubicon: The Doomer's Curse. (Original Post) AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 OP
Doom doom doooooooooooooom! dawg Mar 2013 #1
Lulz. AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #2
I love that show! dawg Mar 2013 #3
what percentage of climate change believers here are what you would term "doomers" CreekDog Mar 2013 #4
Probably no more than 10-15%, I'd wager. AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #7
10-15%? so you're basically saying this is an issue with very few posters CreekDog Mar 2013 #8
It's because of the effects it's had on fighting the issue of Climate Change. AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #9
you aren't fighting the issue of climate change CreekDog Mar 2013 #11
Again with the dishonesty? Again with the trolling. AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #17
Oh no, did you see this? CNN just called Climate Change "EPIC"! CreekDog Mar 2013 #25
And? And? AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #26
this hits a little close to home. Viva_La_Revolution Mar 2013 #5
It never hurts to be prepared for the worst, IMHO. AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #15
Zombies will get you if you're stoned. Ikonoklast Mar 2013 #16
Zoinks! Ruh-roh! Jinkies! LOL..... AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #18
All I can say is, GliderGuider Mar 2013 #6
Thanks AverageJoe whatchamacallit Mar 2013 #10
LOL....O rly? AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #13
so "the doomer is a loser willing to blame everyone but himself" hfojvt Mar 2013 #12
In some cases, yes. I don't think it's ALWAYS true, though. n/t AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #14
Disasterbation for disasterbaters kentauros Mar 2013 #19
Hey kentauros, haven't seen you. How's things? AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #20
Things are good. kentauros Mar 2013 #21
Some resources bananas Mar 2013 #22
This civilization is a big dinosaur. It's gonna die. hunter Mar 2013 #23
Re: "That doesn't make me a doomer".....quite to the contrary, my dear misguided friend. AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #24
Nope, no misunderstanding at all. We have no supernatural powers, and we're not too bright. hunter Mar 2013 #27
"Our current civilization will likely be dismantled in a similar fashion." Unless we're invaded..... AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #28
There's no such thing as "devolve" hunter Mar 2013 #30
..... AverageJoe90 Mar 2013 #31
Going "back in time" not reverting in evolution. Curses! Language is imperfect! hunter Mar 2013 #32
Chinese curse rrneck Mar 2013 #29

dawg

(10,626 posts)
3. I love that show!
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 12:22 PM
Mar 2013

It's one of the most delightfully twisted things I've ever watched. The article reminded me of the "doom" song Gir sings in the first episode.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
7. Probably no more than 10-15%, I'd wager.
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 01:20 PM
Mar 2013

Probably even less in the general population.....which, IMO, isn't a bad thing, not in the least.

CreekDog

(46,192 posts)
8. 10-15%? so you're basically saying this is an issue with very few posters
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 01:22 PM
Mar 2013

yet you are posting as if it's a major problem.

we've gone back and forth on this, you identify it as a big problem then back off and say that you really can't find many examples of people here doing it.

it's this all blowing smoke?

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
9. It's because of the effects it's had on fighting the issue of Climate Change.
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 01:24 PM
Mar 2013

I wish I was wrong; but I'm not the only one out there who's noticed the problem.....

CreekDog

(46,192 posts)
11. you aren't fighting the issue of climate change
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 01:26 PM
Mar 2013

you are fighting those who say it exists.

and you are attempting to suggest we're all doomers, but when pressed on it, you back off because you basically can't prove that any of us are doomers.

i'll tell you what, if you are going to exaggerate and do a chicken little about how the "doomers" problem is worse than it is...

just be quiet about climate change exaggeration. you don't get to say you care about exaggeration when you're engaging in it yourself.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
17. Again with the dishonesty? Again with the trolling.
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 01:56 PM
Mar 2013
you are fighting those who say it exists.

and you are attempting to suggest we're all doomers, but when pressed on it, you back off because you basically can't prove that any of us are doomers.

i'll tell you what, if you are going to exaggerate and do a chicken little about how the "doomers" problem is worse than it is...

just be quiet about climate change exaggeration. you don't get to say you care about exaggeration when you're engaging in it yourself.


Now this is a load of crap, CD, and you know it.
I dare you to find ONE recent comment of mine that implies that I don't believe that AGW exists.....but then again, you've never been able to.

And as for this problem, I'll have you know that the Yale Climate Media Forum, of all organizations, has pointed out the facts of the matter:

http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2011/10/is-climate-fatigue-setting-in/

If that's not a good enough source for you, I don't know what is.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
26. And? And?
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 06:03 PM
Mar 2013

Nothing really all that new under the sun; we know that anthropogenic emissions have been affecting the environment for a long while now.
(I do question this particular study's claim that Earth would be much colder by now without AGW, though.)

Viva_La_Revolution

(28,791 posts)
5. this hits a little close to home.
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 12:59 PM
Mar 2013

I'm a semi-doomer, I guess. I feel better having a half-assed plan for zombie apocalypse - weeks of food, water, camping gear, firearms. I hope at 90 I'm rockin and tokin and telling the great grand-kids about how we thought civilization was going to collapse..

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
15. It never hurts to be prepared for the worst, IMHO.
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 01:51 PM
Mar 2013

It's just that focusing too much on the worst simply isn't healthy. And, unfortunately, in the case of battling environmental destruction, it's had the added effect of fatigue.....after all, who wants to keep hearing that the sky is falling every other day?

There ARE plenty of real issues surrounding global warming and other forms of environmental damage. Neither of us denies that, I'm sure, and I'd suspect(and hope!) that the same holds for 99% of our fellows as well. But some just don't realize the problems hyperbole has caused; it's making some men and women on the street want to tune out, and their support is what we need most, more than anything else right now. I just hope you realize that this is a valid concern that I have, and a sadly somewhat underaddressed one at that.

Ikonoklast

(23,973 posts)
16. Zombies will get you if you're stoned.
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 01:54 PM
Mar 2013

They know that you'll be sitting on the couch eating smoe of the last Twinkies from your stash while watching Scooby Doo cartoons and that's when they'll sneak up behind you.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
18. Zoinks! Ruh-roh! Jinkies! LOL.....
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 02:02 PM
Mar 2013

Sorry, I couldn't resist. I used to love watching the re-runs on Boomerang.....

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
6. All I can say is,
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 01:18 PM
Mar 2013

"Thank God I'm not a doomer. Those guys sound like they have a lot of problems."

Actually, I agree with him. I was in a state very much like he describes, and the emotional component turned out to be mostly a projection of my own inner pain. It's a very, very dark place indeed. I finally started to recover about 5 years ago.

OTOH, that doesn't mean that the problems we face are even remotely soluble. I'm just not very emotional about them any more...

"Well, she turned me into a Doomer!
"A Doomer? "
(meekly after a long pause) "... I got better."

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
12. so "the doomer is a loser willing to blame everyone but himself"
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 01:42 PM
Mar 2013

Well hurrah for the "winners". They've got theirs baby.

kentauros

(29,414 posts)
21. Things are good.
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 02:17 PM
Mar 2013

Still doing the kind of work that would get me kicked out of the E/E forum, though (pipeline design)

I remember reading the "disasterbater" label on TreeHugger, and it seems like they had another similar-sounding one, other than doomer. And even if the number of DUers that are disasterbaters is only 10-15%, it's much like the Moral Minority: they profess doom loudly! And thus seem to be numbered more than they are.

Personally, I do think our technology will advance enough to help reign the damage in. While I'm still iffy on the ocean-distribution of powdered rust/iron idea, we need to also think that we've already been geo-engineering the planet with pollution. Perhaps not engineering it in a way beneficial to life, but it was still done on a planet-wide scale. Now we need to implement countermeasures. On a global scale

bananas

(27,509 posts)
22. Some resources
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 04:00 PM
Mar 2013

A recovered peak-oiler created a blog "Peak Oil Debunked"
and wrote about his own experience: "CONFESSIONS OF AN EX-DOOMER"
http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2006/07/307-confessions-of-ex-doomer.html

Another good resource is the Right Livehihood Awards,
which are given to people who are actually solving problems:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_Livelihood_Award

Some good examples are Frances Moore Lappe', Vandana Shiva, David Suzuki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frances_Moore_Lapp%C3%A9
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vandana_Shiva
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Suzuki


hunter

(38,353 posts)
23. This civilization is a big dinosaur. It's gonna die.
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 04:27 PM
Mar 2013

The survivors will be the small feathered dinosaurs and small fury mammals.

That doesn't make me a "doomer" it makes me an evolutionary biologist.

Nobody has ever convinced me that humans have any supernatural abilities. Thus we are on the same path as every species that has preceded us, 99.9...% being extinct and the rest evolved into something different.

What makes us humans unique is our ability to rationalize some of the really, really stupid shit we do. Driving around in smelly dangerous automobiles is one of those things, mining and burning fossil fuels is another. Actually, very few things we do make any kind of sense at all.

As the Roman Empire died the aqueducts supplying its cities were slowly occluded by deposits of limestone and failed. The ability to rebuild them was lost. Eventually the aqueducts were disassembled and the beautiful limestone deposits in them carved into decorations for churches and cathedrals in towns that had poor water supplies and no baths, public or private. Everyone was dirty and smelled bad.

Maybe we can avoid that sort of thing as the wheels come off this civilization, maybe we can keep the medical and communication technologies, feed and shelter everyone, reduce our population by voluntary means, and end up with a better civilization than this one. But that would make sense, which is not something we humans good at.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
24. Re: "That doesn't make me a doomer".....quite to the contrary, my dear misguided friend.
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 04:47 PM
Mar 2013
Thus we are on the same path as every species that has preceded us, 99.9...% being extinct and the rest evolved into something different.


Then you misunderstand humanity.....big time(just the facts, good sir!).

hunter

(38,353 posts)
27. Nope, no misunderstanding at all. We have no supernatural powers, and we're not too bright.
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 06:10 PM
Mar 2013


This column in the Bad Münstereifel
church of SS. Chrysanthus and Daria
was made out of the calcium carbonate
deposits in the aqueduct

The Eifel aqueduct was destroyed by Germanic tribes in 260 during an attack on Cologne, and was never brought back into operation, even though the city continued to exist. In the course of the migration of the various tribes through the region, aqueduct technology fell out of use and knowledge. The entire aqueduct remained buried in the earth some 500 years, until the Carolingians began new construction in the Rhine valley. As this area has relatively little naturally occurring stone, the aqueduct became a favoured place for obtaining building materials. Transportable sections of the aqueduct were used to build the city wall around Rhinebach, for instance. Some of these sections still have the sealing plaster from the aqueduct intact. Thus all of the above-ground sections, and a good part of the underground construction as well, were dismantled and reused in medieval construction.

Particularly desirable as a building material were the limestone-like accretions from the inside of the aqueduct. In the course of operation of the aqueduct, many sections had a layer as thick as 20 centimetres (7.9 in). The material had a consistency similar to brown marble and was easily removable from the aqueduct. Upon polishing, it showed veins, and it could also be used like a stone board when cut flat. This artificial stone found use throughout the Rhineland and was very popular for columns, window frames, and even altars. Use of "Eifel marble" can be seen as far east as Paderborn and Hildesheim, where it was used in the cathedrals. The Danish cathedral at Roskilde is the northernmost location of its use, where several gravestones are made of it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eifel_Aqueduct


Our current civilization will likely be dismantled in a similar fashion.

If humans are extraordinarily lucky then a civilization that's not quite so stupid as ours will arise within the ruins. Of course evolution doesn't have a direction. In a hundred thousand years humans could even revert back to what we were a million years ago -- just basic apes with some toolmaking ability.
 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
28. "Our current civilization will likely be dismantled in a similar fashion." Unless we're invaded.....
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 07:20 PM
Mar 2013

by aliens, no.

In a hundred thousand years humans could even revert back to what we were a million years ago -- just basic apes with some toolmaking ability.


Bullshit on all counts. Name me ONE species that has ever actually devolved. Just one.

hunter

(38,353 posts)
30. There's no such thing as "devolve"
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 10:02 PM
Mar 2013

Again, evolution has no direction.

There are uncounted parasite species that used to be quite a bit more complex than they are now, and even a few "free living" creatures that had ancestors more complex than they are now.

Features gained by evolution are just as easily lost when they become unnecessary or burdensome. It can be simple things like the wonderful reptilian color vision that our small fury ancestors lost because they lived in burrows and only came out at night (unlike birds), or something like dodder (Cuscuta) whose ancestors were a respectable free living member of the morning glory family but lost their chlorophyll and now depend on the photosynthetic ability of more capable hosts.



This dodder is engulfing a
sage in the Mojave Desert


I'm a doomer in the sense that I expect this civilization will die, and I won't be one crying at the funeral. Hell, I might be grave dancing. Fuck Wall Street. But I want it to happen in a graceful way that doesn't involve the usual violence, starvation, disease and death. A warm reboot of society might be possible with the sort of socialism that looks out for the little guy, and this would be much preferable to a hot reboot where bombs are falling and bullets flying, or a cold reboot where economies collapse and people die of exposure, disease, ignorance, bad water, thirst, and starvation.

I'm an optimist because I think this warm reboot of civilization is possible. Maybe the internet and all the other open source and wonderful technologies I've seen developed in my lifetime will make that possible. Maybe the organic gardeners and small farmers growing heirloom varieties will make that possible. Maybe the community and peace activists will make that possible. Maybe we will birth an artificial intelligence and set it loose in the universe as the child of our intellect before biology takes us. I don't know.

My compost heap works. Organic gardening works. Debian works. Planned Parentood works. My wife and I have managed to avoid automobile commuting for more than 25 years, that works. No satellite or cable television, that works.

Most of all, I'm an evolutionary and environmental biologist. The history of life on earth, billions of years of it, is that shit happens. It's not looking too good for humans right now because this time humans are the shit that happened, no different than the photosynthetic bacteria that filled the earth's atmosphere with poisonous oxygen, the climate changes that froze entire oceans or melted ice caps, the big rock that finished off the dinosaurs, the land bridge that let placental mammals loose on the marsupial South American continent, etc., etc., etc. Humans have fucked up the world bad.

If humans want to be a force for something "good," we're not doing a very good job of it. I'd like to change that. If I don't, well then, being one of the small fury mammals living in a burrow, or a little bird, as chaos engulfs the world, that ain't so bad. Watch carefully and get out of the way when the titans fall. Meat is best once it starts to decompose anyways. Leave the fresh stuff to the dangerous carnivores. Watch the T.Rex on T.Rex action from a safe distance and eat what's left over when the victor walks away with a full belly. It may be his last meal, but not yours.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
31. .....
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 10:48 PM
Mar 2013

Okay then, if evolution has no direction, then why did you say this?

In a hundred thousand years humans could even revert back to what we were a million years ago -- just basic apes with some toolmaking ability.


It's just that this one particular comment implied de-evolution, not directionless evolution. Directionless evolution wouldn't lead us to "reverting" to "basic apes" or whatever.

A warm reboot of society might be possible with the sort of socialism that looks out for the little guy, and this would be much preferable to a hot reboot where bombs are falling and bullets flying, or a cold reboot where economies collapse and people die of exposure, disease, ignorance, bad water, thirst, and starvation.

I'm an optimist because I think this warm reboot of civilization is possible. Maybe the internet and all the other open source and wonderful technologies I've seen developed in my lifetime will make that possible. Maybe the organic gardeners and small farmers growing heirloom varieties will make that possible. Maybe the community and peace activists will make that possible. Maybe we will birth an artificial intelligence and set it loose in the universe as the child of our intellect before biology takes us. I don't know.


Barring a thermonuclear war, or an asteroid impact, or some other truly unforeseen non-AGW related disaster, an overall warm reboot is pretty much assured.....although there will certainly some bumps along the way and many of us may not live to see it come to full fruition, myself included.


Most of all, I'm an evolutionary and environmental biologist. The history of life on earth, billions of years of it, is that shit happens. It's not looking too good for humans right now because this time humans are the shit that happened, no different than the photosynthetic bacteria that filled the earth's atmosphere with poisonous oxygen, the climate changes that froze entire oceans or melted ice caps, the big rock that finished off the dinosaurs, the land bridge that let placental mammals loose on the marsupial South American continent, etc., etc., etc. Humans have fucked up the world bad.


Things may seem bad now, but I take comfort in two facts: 1.)AGW alone isn't going to cause our extinction, and 2.)It's going to take a LOT worse to actually kill us off. Hell, about 100,000 of our ancestors survived Toba when it blew up, and that was a disaster that nobody could prepare for in those days.

Even global thermonuclear war in the 1980s wouldn't have been enough to kill us off entirely.....and even a limited exchange of nukes would have fucked up the planet more than all but perhaps even the very worst of projected global warming scenarios, in a myriad of ways(including possibly igniting permafrost in Siberia); some animals and crops might be able to adapt to hotter summers and with lessened water availability(albeit to a cost, though). But no animal can adapt to the sun being blotted out by dust.....or radiation for that matter.

hunter

(38,353 posts)
32. Going "back in time" not reverting in evolution. Curses! Language is imperfect!
Sat Mar 9, 2013, 01:38 AM
Mar 2013

This future basic ape with some toolmaking ability would not be the same species as a past basic ape with some toolmaking ability.

I'm not looking forward to any future where the very wealthy survive in well armed gated communities while the rest of us starve. I also don't think the human species will ever inhabit space to any significant degree, not enough to save us if the earth is destroyed. Space is a difficult environment for us. In my wildest dreams we birth a child species, mechanical, biological, or a hybrid of both, that is adapted to space. Individuals of this child species could step out of an airlock without a space suit on the surface of the moon or mars, or traveling between planets. Maybe they could have photosynthetic wings. Lunch would be a nap in the sun. Maybe they could build safe places for their fragile parent species and invite us to visit.

Returning to more immediate concerns, climate change refugees are going to be an increasing problem, even within the USA. I don't like thinking about what happens in the Southwest as the Colorado River dries up. There's a lot of people living in places like Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego and Los Angeles that depend on that water.

And what happens if Midwest agriculture fails? Or huge storms take out low elevation coastal areas, especially along the East and Gulf coasts?

I think it's crazy to expect large scale geoengineering projects to save us, but we can provide food, safe shelter, and medical care to refugees, at the very least within our own nations, even to those individuals our society labels "failures."

A failure to thrive in our current society is less often a personal failure than it is a social failure. We like to blame victims because we don't want to recognize the random nature of our own success or the dismal failures of the society we are supporting. Blaming victims is a way of protecting our own irrational optimisms and faith in our own society.



I was born without any optimism. I have to take powerful medications just to function. My unmedicated basic nature is "paranoid depressed homeless guy digging through dumpsters trying to be invisible."

Every day I decide to get up out of bed, every day nothing horrible happens to me, it's a miracle. I'm able to see things from the perspective of a guy who once pushed his broken car into a church parking lot because the police were harassing him and then simply existed there. I've simply existed in other similar places too. Simply existing is a good place to start thinking about all problems. If you don't exist, what's the problem?

I think there's a evolved purpose for people like me in human communities. I'm the guy who say's, "Run for the hills and hide the children. Those guys in the long boats down there don't look like they're here to trade."

But it's bloody awful when I'm a guy in the long boat, wealthier than most villagers in this global community, pillaging and plundering this earth every time I spend money. Money sucks.

I'm listening to our efficient furnace right now, burning natural gas fracked out of the ground somewhere. If I turned the furnace off I wouldn't freeze to death, nor would I save any amount of money significant to me, but it would be cold in the house. I wouldn't like that, and my wife would complain, so I don't turn the furnace off.

What kind of hell is this?

rrneck

(17,671 posts)
29. Chinese curse
Fri Mar 8, 2013, 07:36 PM
Mar 2013

"May you (we) be born in interesting times."

Or, as it says on my coffee cup (courtesy of Max Cannon)

"When life gives you poop, make poop juice".

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