Ferrying troops through a gauntlet of Taiwanese, US and Japanese ships, missiles, submarines, mines and drones could potnentialy be the biggesst risk he'd ever take. There was a reason Operation Sealion never happened, and it wasn't because of sea lions thinking again.
Beijing’s attempts to intimidate the US government into abandoning support for Taiwan have failed. Helping Taiwan to defend itself remains bipartisan US policy, even supported by Republican politicians who want to stop arming Ukraine. Despite the longstanding US policy of “strategic ambiguity”, President Biden has publicly stated four times that US forces would intervene in Taiwan’s defence.
Xi needs merely to avoid Taiwan declaring formal independence. If Taiwan did do so, Xi would probably opt for war. But even Taiwanese governments controlled by the Democratic Progressive Party, which rejects the idea of Taiwan being part of China, have shown that they will not cross this line.
Xi reached the pinnacle of the Party hierarchy through a career of careful positioning and quiet ruthlessness, not by taking grand gambles. Since then, he has shown a preference for grey-zone tactics. I see no convincing reason to expect him to rush to a military showdown over Taiwan.
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