RFK Jr. Backfires And Creates A Massive Problem For Trump

[Tom of Temecula]

New polling from NBC News shows that RFK Jr. significantly cuts into Donald Trump’s support with Republican voters. Via NBC News:

Trump leads Biden by 2 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, 46% to 44%, in the new NBC News poll Yet when the ballot is expanded to five named candidates, Biden is the one with a 2-point advantage: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%. The big reason why is that the poll finds a greater share of Trump voters in the head-to-head matchup backing Kennedy in the expanded ballot. Fifteen percent of respondents who picked Trump the first time pick Kennedy in the five-way ballot, compared with 7% of those who initially picked Biden. Also, Republican voters view Kennedy much more favorably (40% positive, 15% negative) than Democratic voters do (16% positive, 53% negative).

There are two numbers that are worth paying attention to. Joe Biden has gained five points since the last NBC News poll, which is above the margin of error of 3.1 points, and the four-point swing with RFK Jr. is factored in is also above the margin of error. The trendline shows that President Biden’s momentum is real, and RFK Jr. is a huge problem for Donald Trump.

Biden’s supporters seem more locked in than Trump’s and if the ex-president gets criminally convicted, he might see support hemorrhage away. It would not be out of the realm of possibility for Trump’s support to fall into the thirties and back to his core MAGA base if he is criminally convicted.

https://www.politicususa.com/2024/04/21/trump-rfk-jr-backfire.html

[lees1975]

1. I still think the polls are skewed by Russian interference, or just outright media bias.

Of course, at this time in election season, they are always pretty far off and they get tighter as the election approaches, or more "accurate" because the pollsters don't want to look like they skewed the earlier results. It's not believable to think Biden drops to 37% at any point, even with RFK drawing 13%, which is way down from where he was supposedly polling a month ago, and still in the incredible and unbelievable range. I can believe Biden is around 47%, or higher, and Trump is around 37% or lower and that's realistic and expected given events taking place and the inaccuracy, bias and outside influences on the media. RFK at 13%? Not anywhere on this planet.

[calguy]

3. Totally agree

No way does RFK Jr draw even 5% anywhere. He'll be lucky to get even 2% in any state.

[womanofthehills]

9. Wrong - In Michigan, RFK Jr averages 10.4 in last 5polls

In NC, he averages 9.4 in last five polls. These are all the latest polls.

Pennsylvania 7.6 in 5 polls
Wisconsin. 9.5 in 4 polls
Texas. 10.3 in 3 polls
Georgia 8.5 in 5 polls

The last poll in Kentucky had him at 15% while California has him at 7%. So, he’s not doing as well in super liberal states like California. WHO knows where this is going????

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/california (Click on individual states latest polls - scroll down - first polls Trump & Biden - scroll down to same poll with independents included)

[Cha]

14. RF jr is a Fucking Lying Ass Idiot.. Which Appeals More to Stupid TSF fans.

him and and his GD "antivax" Shit.

[W_HAMILTON]

16. You can't claim "wrong" by using polls as support.

The whole argument is that he won't get anywhere near the level of support on Election Day as the polls now are suggesting he will.

And I agree.

Zero chance he gets anywhere near double digits in any state.

[calguy]

18. You're talking polling numbers

I'm talking actual votes.

[BComplex]

5. I totally agree with you, lees. The commercial media is setting it up for trump to say it's stolen AGAIN!

There is NO WAY IN HELL that trump has taken away more voters from Biden after Roe, after 1/6 at the capitol, after admitting he's actually running for dictator, rather than president. Biden's only problem is people staying home, but I think he's going to take care of that before November.

There is NO WAY IN HELL that trump has a chance of beating Joe Biden...at least not legitimately.

[Blue Owl]

2. Hey GOP, have a cigar to celebrate your 3rd party stunt candidate

[WarGamer]

4. Welker and Kornacki were pushing the bad parts of this poll today.

Horse race, ya know...

Here's the actual NBC link... I find politicus to be a half step better than Palmer Report.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536

[jalan48]

6. So, if Trump picks RFK for his Veep then what happens?

[Celerity]

7. he would likely never do it, and RFK Jr is nutter, but that wildcard ticket is something I would not relish so much

The delta is crazy high on how it would play out, but I highly doubt much of Trump's base+ would leave him if he did pick the loon. On the other hand, Trump would gain back a lot of Trump voters who are defecting to RFK atm, and I suspect a fair amount of non Trump/non Biden voters who mainly only support RFK. I imagine some of the last category would perhaps drift to Stein and West as well, but not a large amount of numbers, and that does not really help Biden either, as he still misses out on their votes.

[jalan48]

10. I think Trump would pick someone who he thought would bring the most votes to the ticket.

He knows if he loses the election endless court battles will consume the rest of his life. As big as his ego is, in the end he has to win this election and he knows it. If RFK packs the biggest punch I think he would choose him. I'm not sure RFK would accept but he has said that Biden poses a bigger threat to our democracy than Trump.

[Celerity]

13. Another Trump VP pick that would not be to my liking in terms of expanding his vote share: Chris Sununu

That would draw back a lot of the equestrian class Rethugs and indies who are repelled by the christofashie white nationalist stench, and I think would have little effect on the Trump base of those death cultists. They are Trump or Die types.

Marco Rubio would be another, and he would hurt us with an already problematic Latino vote, plus draw back some of those sort of moderate equestrian class Rethugs and indies I mentioned above. His being a Senator from a not 100% deep Red state (but trending that way) might hurt his chances.

JD Vance could be on that list as well, but he is also a Senator. Granted OH is pretty deep Red, and unfortunately Sherrod Brown is by no means a shoe-in for re-election, nor is Tester from MT, and, to a lesser degree of peril, Baldwin, Casey, Rosen, and whoever wins the MD (Hogan changing his mind and running, arfff) and MI (all of our best potential candidates declined to run, for various reasons) Dem primaries.

I would add Tim Scott to the list, but I just cannot see Trump or some of his worst parts of his racist base going for a black man. Then again, many will accept pretty much anything Trump does, so who knows?

Atm, I cannot see a female candidate (no way Haley will be picked, I just cannot see that happening) out there who would expand the Trump vote (as that is what we are discussing). All the ones in the running are RW MAGAts.

[Maru Kitteh]

8. What if the moon is really made of green cheese?

He won't, and it's not.

[womanofthehills]

11. RFK Jr said he was asked - but declined

He’s been criticizing Trump this week.

[Cha]

15. RF jr is Still a POS Rat Fucking Lying Idiot. And No Dems who really Care

about our Country and the Planet will vote for that Corck of Sht.

[DemocraticPatriot]

19. Jr has already claimed that Trump asked him,

and he turned him down. He thinks he's running for President, not VP...

[Jose Garcia]

17. I am very skeptical that West will be on the ballot in many states

He doesn't appear to have a very well organized campaign.

[Cosmocat]

20. This actually makes sense

These people are THAT brainwashed, that that slim margin that have enough soul left in them that can see DT is a stark raving lunatic can more easily vote for someone who is not a democrat, than vote for the democrat.