Politico considers that Trump is losing more than the suburbs

[kpete]

Perhaps Trump fatigue finally is setting in. He can still sucker the press into covering his daily outrages. He can still draw eyeballs and clicks. MAGA politicians who rode in on his coattails still genuflect before his image. But can he win a presidential election?

Politico considers that Trump is losing more than the suburbs:

The analysis of GOP presidential primary results from more than 1,000 counties shows warning signs for Trump, especially as Republican voters continued to vote against him in closed primaries after he clinched the nomination. And it makes clear that, while independents and crossover voters may have boosted former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in some primaries, a chunk of true Republican voters still wished for someone else to be the party’s nominee.

“You hear a lot of moderate Republicans now who say that they’ll never vote for Trump again,” said Parker Fairbairn, county GOP chair in Emmet County, Michigan, on the northern end of the state’s Lower Peninsula, where Trump won 55 percent of the vote in the 2020 general election. In last month’s primary, he got two-thirds of the vote there.

What distinguishes Emmet County and similar geographies from the other suburban ones is their broader politics. These aren’t the kinds of suburbs on the outskirts of major cities, where wealthy, educated professionals have already fled the Republican Party.

They’re farther away from urban areas. They’re less densely populated, and they have fewer voters with college degrees. These places — which include North Carolina’s Republican-leaning exurbs, and conservative but less Trump-inclined counties several hours north of Michigan’s major cities — still vote predominantly for Republicans, both at the presidential and local levels. In 2016, when both parties held contested primaries, the Republican voters in these counties backed candidates like Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) over Trump, and in the general election they voted for Trump at lower rates than the deep-red rural areas.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/30/trump-gop-primary-voters-exurbs-00149822

https://digbysblog.net/2024/03/30/trump-fatigue/

[calguy]

1. I totally agree that trump's support is nowhere near where they'd have us believe it is

Despite outdated polling models that show a neck-and-neck battle with trump slightly ahead in most instances, every time actual voters in actual elections voice their opinions, Dems win big and GOP continues to bleed overall support. We need look no farther than what happened in Alabama last week. A female Democratic candidate, who, if you believe the polls, was supposed to lose in a landslide. Well, we all know what happened. She won in a landslide, in ruby-red Alabama, no less.

A critical mass of Republican and Independent voters has had enough of the clown party the GOP had become after anointing trump as their Lord and Savior, and their wrath will turn on the Republicans at every level up and down the ballot.

[democratsruletheday]

2. Sure hope you're right calguy....

I live in a red area of (West) Michigan that's gotten more blue over time. We've been here 25 years and things are absolutely improving as the Orange turd and the gaggle of GOP idiots get more and more demented. The fact we have to sweat out another election against this loon and his 'party' is pretty disheartening though. This shouldn't even be a conversation fer crissakes.

[calguy]

3. I think if only 5-10% of former trump voters reject him in November

He doesn't have a chance in hell. He certainly hasn't gained support, that much is clear. What remains to be seen is if Biden's support has grown in the states he barely won last time around to prevail.

I think the only thing that sinks Biden is if Democrats get complacent and don't show up to vote like they did when Hillary ran against him.