Why RFK Jr. Should Hurt Trump More Than Biden

[applegrove]

Why RFK Jr. Should Hurt Trump More Than Biden

March 14, 2024 at 12:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2024/03/14/why-rfk-jr-should-hurt-trump-more-than-biden/

"SNIP.........

Jonathan Last: “If Kennedy is on the ballot, then everyone is going to find out exactly who he is and what he stands for. And they’re not going to like it.”

“If/when Kennedy’s anti-vaccine beliefs are tied totally to his brand name, then that +11 favorability number will head south.”

“But it won’t go to zero. He’ll still have supporters—it’s just that these supporters will be overwhelmingly Republican, because in the era of Trump anti-vaccine sentiment concentrated in the GOP… And within the Republican party, vaccine skepticism is not evenly distributed: It’s concentrated among self-identified MAGA Republicans.”

“Put this all together and I suspect that over time: RFK’s support will drop by >66 percent as his favorability number collapses. His remaining support will be disproportionately drawn from low-propensity, vaccine-skeptical MAGA Republicans. The net effect of his candidacy will be a slight drag on Trump’s number.”

..........SNIP"

[H2O Man]

1. No doubt

about it.

Recommended.

[question everything]

2. "everyone is going to find out" - assuming that voters want to know

Certainly Trump supporters don’t care about his plans or policies. They just want him and, I suspect, same holds for RFK Jr.

Honestly, I don’t think that the thoughtful debates on these pages extend into the population at large.

Also, we have heard that many voters don’t decide until two weeks before the elections.

I hope to be wrong.

[LiberalFighter]

7. There a few not until close to the election.

Some of it will be built up or down throughout the campaigns.

Some of it is happening in the back of their minds.

[TwilightZone]

3. Lots of "ifs" and "shoulds" in that statement.

While I agree that it's somewhat likely that RFK Jr. will draw more support from Trump than Biden, there are still lots of low-information voters of all political stripes that may not make all of the connections.

And within the Republican party, vaccine skepticism is not evenly distributed: It’s concentrated among self-identified MAGA Republicans.

This isn't true. Non-MAGA Republicans, while not as anti-vax as MAGA ones, are still significantly anti-vax. 73% of non-MAGA Republicans said they probably wouldn't or definitely wouldn't get a COVID vax.

See figure 3 in the link below:

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-maga-republicans-relationship-with-covid-19-vaccines/

[Ping Tung]

4. Yep. There's a bunch of Repugs and Independents who loathe Trump.

They're looking for a way to avoid voting for Trump and still not vote for Biden. This election is more about voting against a candidate than voting for one. There are Democrats and Independents who are luke warm about Biden and will nevertheless hold their nose and vote for him because they hate Trump.

The Repugs are more likely just to vote for Kennedy and vote against Trump and Biden. Or not vote at all.

[Aristus]

5. Shit. Even his own family won't publicly support him.

When you do a deep dive into the anti-vaxx cesspool, good, decent, smart, devoted people are going to abandon you.

[LiberalFighter]

6. I agree

There are a lot of stories with JFK jr tied in with bad and low lifes.

[CanonRay]

8. My brother-in-law is one of them

A true Libertarian nut job, normally votes Republican. He's all into Kennedy.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

9. Two nut cases

[W_HAMILTON]

10. MAGA is going to vote for MAGA -- not a Kennedy that was a Democrat the other day.

How some can still naively and foolishly believe that these third-party candidacies help Democrats, I have no clue.

We can beat Trump in a one-on-one race.

Trump cannot beat Biden in a one-on-one race.

Therefore, any third-party candidacies that bring down the margin Trump needs to win from 50%+ to 48%, 47%, 46%, etc. -- they inevitably only hurt us.

[WarGamer]

13. absolutely agree, 100%...

Surprised?

[Bluesaph]

11. I know of one Trump voter who is voting for Kennedy

Specifically because of “bodily autonomy”. Aka: anti vaccine Covid denier.

[WarGamer]

12. Not as of today...

A new Emerson/The Hill poll from yesterday has Trump +4 in PA head to head... +4 in PA with RFK, West and Stein included.

[Renew Deal]

14. This is why Trump is out there with extreme anti-vax positions

He's trying to protect himself from Kennedy Jr.