The political math is difficult for us

[Pototan]

By us, I mean everyone who wants to stop Donald Trump from turning America into a dictatorship and ally itself with other totalitarian regimes in the world.

I have posted this analysis here before, but it bears repeating. Our side is a coalition. In a big tent coalition, some positions clash with others. Take the Gaza conflict, for example. Biden is in a no-win situation with our coalition passionately positioned on both sides of the issue. The Trump cult, on the other hand, has no position. It's Trump. That's how cults work.

I can understand how the "uncommitted" supporters feel. But a Trump victory will not advance your cause. It won't advance anyone's cause in our coalition. Minorites, unions, women or those of us so fearful of losing our Democracy, we can't sleep at night.

So, please, express yourself on any issue you want, but keep in mind that re-electing Joe Biden is the only way to save America from a dictatorship.

There is an old adage that is quite appropriate here. "Please don't bite off your nose to spite your face".

[elleng]

1. Clearly 'uncommitted' knew they were 'speaking' in the Democratic PRIMARY,

NO WAY they will vote that way in the General Election in November.

We ALL hope President Biden will be successful in efforts to end the Gaza war, and the misery that goes with it.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

3. The uncommitted voters I've seen interviewed have uniformly been adamant they won't vote for Biden in the general

[All Mixed Up]

4. Irrelevant. Unless you've seen thousands interviewed, it doesn't mean much.

Unfortunately, we don't have an exit poll breakdown of uncommitted and who they plan to support in November.

I remember back in 2008 the press interviewing a lot of Hillary supporters who were adamant they would not vote for Obama in November. I am sure a good amount didn't - but most did. They either came around, which often happens when the election is days/weeks away or the press inflated specific people to make it look like there was a much bigger problem for Obama among those voters than there really was.

For what it's worth, at one point, 40% of Clinton supporters in 2008 said they would not vote Obama.

Clearly that never materialized or Obama would not have won.

[question everything]

8. However, it was documented that many Sanders supporters in 2016 did vote for Trump

Both had a similar message on how terrible things were for the working class, though Sanders did not use the term “carnage.”

[All Mixed Up]

10. What we know is that a lot of these voters voted for Biden in 2020.

So, they were open to voting Biden in 2020 and hopefully can be talked into voting for him in November. A lot of those Sanders voters who refused to vote Hillary came back in 2020 after seeing the damage a Trump presidency could do.

[Pototan]

11. All I know is that it feels like...

...we're juggling eggs. With the end result being the end of America, as we know it, it just one egg breaks.

[All Mixed Up]

12. Probably are.

But it's been like that ever since the New Deal coalition started to fracture.

The good news is that I think most these voters can be persuaded.

[DemocraticPatriot]

14. Statistical research has proven that MORE 2008 Hillary supporters failed to vote

for Obama in the 2008 General election, than Sanders supporters failed to vote for Hillary in the General election in 2016.

Luckily, in 2008, the number of Hillary supporters who failed to 'come home' for the General election was vastly overwhelmed by the massive increase in turnout of African-Americans voters for Obama--- which caused my longest wait to vote EVER, in November 2008, about an hour and a half!!! (The line was stretching out of the building... before and after, I had always finished within 30 minutes and probably 20.)

Fearing an 'only natural' fall-off of A.A. turnout in 2016, without the historic first-time African-American nominee at the top of the ballot, I advocated for an African-American vice presidential nominee to be chosen--- but instead, Sec. Clinton chose someone who was considered a *safe* (WHITE--- AND BORING!!!) choice-- and then even failed to campaign much or at all in the African-American urban strongholds in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin--- instead reaching for victories in red states which she could not win... (President Biden made a different and bolder choice, and the results speak for themselves.)


Going back to your original point--- yes, there were 'many' Sanders supporters who voted for Trump--- I classify them as the 'older angry white man'--- but Bernie Sanders had a large percentage of independent voters supporting him in his race for the Democratic nomination that year (also "documented" )--- thus, the Democratic party was not *entitled* to their votes in the General election---

even if ideologically it would have made more sense for those independent Sanders voters to support the Democratic nominee in the GE, I think that most of those were 'non-ideological' indy voters--- they were instead 'emotional voters', and they were angry, and after Sanders was defeated, they chose to support 'the angry candidate' left to them in the General election, which was Trump.....

but the vast majority of those voters had never been committed to the Democratic party, even though they had voted in some Democratic primaries....

[elleng]

17. Not what I've seen.

[question everything]

5. They certainly will. One woman was interviewed, she was not going to vote for Biden

in November and was willing to live with the consequences. It was posted here several times.

The irony, of course, is that Trump has no love for Muslims.

[elleng]

18. Not from what I've seen. 'Some' apparently not aware of 'programs' of the alternative.

[Ms. Toad]

16. I'm so tired of people who don't understand the difference between primary voting and general election voting.

Thanks for making the point.

[All Mixed Up]

2. The biggest threat to Biden's reelection isn't Trump - it's undecideds staying home or voting third party.

Poll after poll shows us Trump is at about the level of support he saw in 2020. He has clearly solidified his previous support much stronger than Biden has and that shouldn't surprise anyone. If you voted for Trump in 2020, after everything that we saw from him during his four years as president, you're probably going to vote for him again in 2024.

Biden? He pulled in a lot of support that either didn't vote in 2016 or voted third party.

In 2020, according to exit polls, Biden won 95% of those who voted Hillary in 2016. But he also won 60% of those who voted for someone other than Hillary/Trump in 2016 and 58% of those who did not vote in 2016.

That's why he won in 2020.

The problem for Biden? Many of those voters, the mix of third party voters in 2016 and voters who didn't vote in 2016, have proven they're perfectly fine voting third party or not voting because they already did that in 2016.

These weren't massive numbers of the overall electorate but enough to make a significant difference. Third party 2016 voters made up 5% of the electorate in 2020 and voters who didn't vote in 2016 made up 11% for a total of 16% of voters who either didn't vote four years prior or voted third party.

So, Biden won basically 60% of that 16%.

So far the polls are indicating much of that 16% is either undecided, leaning toward a third party candidate or not voting.

Trump can win in 2024 without expanding even one point of one percent of his support in 2020 if Biden loses support to third party candidates by the margins we saw in 2016.

[Pototan]

6. My point, exactly

[DemocraticPatriot]

15. President Biden needs to reach out hard to African-Americans

and the party base in general--- and not repeat the mistakes of the party's 2016 nominee,
who took those voters for granted...

and SLAM the Republicans on reproductive rights continually,

and blame Republicans for continued high prices (inflation)---

after all, it is mostly Republicans who are in the economic positions of "setting prices",
which President Biden is NOT....

Republicans were responsible for our high inflation,
and they are responsible for the continuation of higher prices now,
and they have the luxury of blaming it all on President Biden!

(WIN-WIN for those corporate extreme-capitalist scum!)


Many polls have shown a responsiveness to President Biden when he has enunciated THAT particular economic message, and he needs to do it much more!

[W_HAMILTON]

7. Anyone not voting for Biden in 2024 is supporting Trump -- PERIOD.

[mopinko]

9. if he pulls off a cease fire, we have no worries.

esp as the election is not that far away. it only has to hold til nov.
stop worrying. do something.

[Pototan]

13. I am doing something

In order for Biden to win, all we need is our coalition to vote Biden.

So, I work on members of that coalition the best I can.

[mopinko]

19. you're preaching to the choir.

we need to go save some souls.

[Pototan]

20. The choir's all we need

Arab Americans, African Americans, Muslim Americans, Asians, Latinos, pro-choice women, union members and progressives. If they all vote Biden, we win easy.

This is a case when preaching to the choir is the most important thing we can do.

[mopinko]

21. i agree it's good for the choir to practice, but

the point is to perform for others. the thing i’m the least worried about is keeping the coalition together. and i think you’re overlooking our great veep.

EVERY election there r 3rd party voters, and stay at homes. i suspect this yr there will b fewer than ever. the turnout in ia and nh when the pundits/polls said there’s no contest proves this. williams has already dripped out and dean is only still in it for the grift. the 2 of them couldnt get over 6%.
if u want to make a point about that shit, follow the money.

all those uncommitteds knew they were free to make a protest vote. they will turnout unless the me continues to be the absolute shit show it is now.

and the polls have been shit since 17. we’ve won or overperformed every damn time.

constant hand wringing depresses the vote. sing the praises of our team. esp harris, who is being so roundly ignored in the media despite working her ass off and firing up young voters.
talk about that ‘soft landing’ that was theoretically impossible. start calling it the biden economic miracle.
save the dirges for the funeral, if there is 1.