What if the resignation of Joe Manchin is a gift from heaven?

[Peacetrain]

Now bear with me here.. West Virginia is the home to a contrary people. Trust me I know. Now you may think they are all red neck racists.. (they are NOT) .. but they have a culture all their own. John Kennedy could not get a good word much less elected to President if it were not for West Virginia..West Virginia got him elected. Never give up on people. Never give up on the citizens of West Virginia.. Just do not make fun of them. Because chairs will begin to fly.

But Manchin has been a burden for the last few years. Everyone is yammering for Trump , and Manchin walked the tightrope. Biden has got the unions back on the map. Working people speaking to working people. We may have an opening there to expand. Get the right person in and we could be off to the races. I am looking at this as a glass half full.

[Mountainguy]

1. Na

Best we can hope for now is Justice who has been a rino as governor. But with his health and age, plus his habit of not leaving home, he's unlikely to serve more than a term. Then we'll likely be facing a Patrick Morrisy level nutjob.

[niyad]

50. Welcome to our DU family.

[elleng]

2. Good to hear, thanks, but would be pretty good to have a Democratic Senator,

as they have had for many years: Robert Byrd, Jay Rockefeller, and Joe Manchin.

[Peacetrain]

4. I think the right person, could win WVA..

I really do

[elleng]

9. Good, but who would BE the right person???

Trying to recall, a good one ran for a congressional seat 'recently,' but now can't recall his/her name.

[Qutzupalotl]

63. Zach Shrewsbury

Looks good. See the top of the Greatest page.

[elleng]

64. Thanks,

saw that.

[pnwmom]

16. That's the state that voted for Trump more than any state in the country in 2016

and the second highest in 2020.

They have a new draconian abortion law and nobody seems to care.

So I'm afraid Manchin was the best we could do.

[nycbos]

62. Based on what?

[Amishman]

12. The West Virginia that elected Democrats is dead

Utterly dead. how WV voted a generation or more ago doesn't matter. Kennedy? Completely irrelevant. That primary was twenty five years before I was born, and I'm going gray with kids of my own.

The single best chance we had was Manchin, and he was polling terribly against Justice, which is why he dropped.

[GreenWave]

59. And as we know the tide never turns the other way. (just kidding)

But the mightiest river, the Amazon, used to flow East to West.Today it flows West to East. This should teach us a powerful lesson.
I dare say humans can change direction easier, but it will not help if we have no optimism.

[tritsofme]

3. WV has changed for the worst, Biden didn't even crack 30%

The winds will surely change someday, but it won’t be 2024.

[Peacetrain]

7. Who would have ever thought the unions could come roaring back as they have

Thank you Joe Biden. Its having the right people , in the right place, at the right time.

[Freethinker65]

5. Jim Justice (R) current governor of WV will be the next Senator from WV

Manchin knew he would lose, so this year his goal was to get as much media ego stroking attention and gain as much personal wealth (nix all alternative fuel legislation while ensuring fossil fuel subsidies and tax cuts for wealthiest) as possible.

[Celerity]

19. Bingo, we have a winner.

[BOSSHOG]

6. I agree Peacetrain

I hope he’s done for instead of playing footsie with no labels. Dems in WV need a candidate and quick. Goodness, Dems have been tested for decades and we are still standing. Need the WV gop to come out strongly for banning abortion.

[rubbersole]

8. Love your optimism!

There is a YEAR before the election. The repubs continue to just throw shit at each other every day. Blaming each other is the norm and getting worse. Bummer.

[Earth-shine]

10. I'll be happy to have him out of the news.

Not a man of the people.

[TwilightZone]

11. We ran a progressive in WV in 2020.

She got demolished. She got 27% of the vote.

I appreciate your optimism, because positivity is often lacking around here, but Manchin might have been the only Democrat alive who could win a statewide race in WV, and even his chances were looking grim for 2024. Perhaps another moderate would have a chance, but I don't know who that might be at the moment. Perhaps someone will emerge shortly.

[ColinC]

13. There's no way he beats Justice. It would have been a money pit

[kwolf68]

14. West Va is gone

For now at least

[4lbs]

15. WV hasn't been anywhere close to "blue" this century.

2000 - Bush won the state by more than 6 points over Gore.

2004 - Bush beat Kerry by 13 points

2008 - McCain beat Obama by 13 points

2012 - Romney beat Obama by 26 points

2016 - Dumpster beat Hillary by 42 points

2020 - Dumpster beat Biden by 39 points in the state

My educated guess is that WV will go for whatever the red GOP candidate is by the same amount in 2024.

The last time WV went "blue" for a candidate was Clinton in 1996.


Mansion Manchin barely won re-election in 2018, by only 3 points, after soundly demolishing his opponent in 2012.

He likely figured as already posted, that he wasn't going to get another chance in 2024, so best to "retire" and state he isn't running instead of going through a laborious process only to get defeated.

[Joinfortmill]

17. Yup

[LeftInTX]

18. It's not

Their governor is gonna win that seat. That's why he's not running again.

[Volaris]

20. Im inclined to agree. Even if a 'rockefeller republican',

Would be better for WV than a ConDem like Manchin...

Dean's 50 State Strategy is STILL the model for dem national control, I think...

[Celerity]

21. It is a gift in terms of not having to worry about wasting money and hope on a Trump loving car wreck of a state.

It is a clarifying moment. WV is a state where a multiplicity of toxic forces rule the day, and very likely will for a long time.

The majority of WV voters' outlooks on life as expressed through political choices is now a fully formed miasma of doom, and a dystopian nightmare if it became the controlling paradigm in the US.

[chowmama]

22. It'll depend on women and young people

and who the Republican candidate is. If it's the governor, he'll probably win.

However, if the governor gets successfully primaried by a more wild-eyed, flame-spewing, Handmaid's Tale, pro-mine collapse and anti-disaster relief, crazy person - the kind of candidate who makes it plain that everybody that isn't a rich white male is, essentially, livestock - we may be surprised at who and how many show up at the polls.

The governor may actually be too moderate for the new Republican party. After all, this is now the party that calls for public execution of people who disagree with them.

[LudwigPastorius]

23. The economy/inflation is the number one issue with West Virginia voters according to polls.

If we are to have any chance at all, Democrats need to field a Senatorial candidate that pounds the pocketbook issues while downplaying the "culture war" bullshit that the Republicans will, no doubt, build their campaign upon.

[brooklynite]

24. There IS nobody to step in and run...

There are no Statewide Democratic officials and Democrats in the legislature are a small minority.

I’ll note that nobody in this thread has actually suggested someone.

[Turbineguy]

56. Zach Shrewsbury

Zachary Shrewsbury is a dedicated Marine Corps Veteran who served with distinction as a member of the Fleet Anti Terrorism Security Team (FAST). As Zach transitioned into civilian life he became a loving father and a devoted advocate for working class families. Drawing upon his unwavering commitment to duty and motivated by his profound belief in the resilience and potential of the people of his state, Zach has announced his run for US Senate against Joe Manchin.

https://www.shrewsburyforsenate.com/

[brooklynite]

60. 20 years of election modeling tell me he hasn't got a chance.

[diva77]

65. Have you every miscalculated with your election modeling?

[brooklynite]

66. Not in an election that starts this far away from victory.

West Virginia has an R+35 lean.

Trump won it by 39 points in 2020.

Jim Justice won his last race by 33 points.

The closest equivalent race would be Alabama, but Jim Justice doesn't have the baggage of Roy Moore, and Zach Shrewsbury doesn't have the record of Doug Jones (a former US Attorney).

The bottom line is that Shrewsbury is appealing to people HERE: political activists on the center-left. That in no way represents the electorate of West Virginia.

[Mr. Evil]

25. I've never really been a defeatist.

I'm seeing a lot of it here regarding WVA. Maybe if we put some money there, choose a well known and likeable candidate we can get close enough to pull it off. But, the old style of trying to appeal to them by sounding like republicans carries more of a stench than a roadkill skunk. And West Virginians can smell it coming from 20 miles away.

Simply tell them the truth. They already know it. Maybe they're just waiting for someone to come along and finally say it to their faces. They've been conned, swindled, deceived, exploited and promised that coal will come back strong and save their lives. They know it's bullshit but, what do we offer except republican lite? We could tell them that it's a brave new world with renewable energy because coal is dead. Build solar farms on old strip mine properties. Arrays of vertical wind turbines (takes more but, they are much smaller than the large propeller blade type) that can be installed virtually anywhere providing plenty of good paying jobs and much much safer work conditions than coal mining to boot.

We could help them expand their tourism offerings. It's a beautiful place. Join forces with any companies that will pledge to bring factories and other jobs there. Offer tax incentives for high tech firms to join in this effort by building server farms and other tech careers which will help keep more younger tech savvy people there. Instead of giving up we have to try harder. They'll stay with what they've got until something real and better comes along.

I'm just spitballing here but, if we just give up they get nothing but more of the same. Don't go in with hope and wishful thinking. We need to bulldoze our way in with truth, facts, grit and promise. Hell, we should do that in all 50 states instead of just the ones we already have a stronghold in.

It's been said, "fortune favors the bold." Well, bold is what we need to be now. And if we can be bold and flip WVA, we can accomplish everything we need to in this country. And the stench of roadkill skunk will be a think of the past.

[brooklynite]

28. "Maybe if we put some money there, choose a well known and likeable candidate..."

We don't HAVE a "well known and likable candidate" in West Virginia. I model the competitiveness of every significant House, Senate or State-level race, which means I look at existing and prospective candidates. There isn't one.

As for "putting money there", there are so many winnable races to focus on, it would be political malpractice for DSCC or deep-pocket donors to burch case in this Senate race.

[leftstreet]

30. Why flush $$ down the toilet? Unseat Cruz instead n/t

[Mr. Evil]

43. We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

We've already shown West Virginians that we're only going to make a token effort to challenge the status quo in their state. What incentive do they have to vote for that?

Anything worth having is worth working and fighting for. We should put forth a concerted effort to do so there. I'm not denying it will take a monumental effort to achieve victory there but, what a monumental achievement it would be. The rest of the nation would definitely take notice.

[madaboutharry]

26. I don't see it.

West Virginia was lost in the culture wars.

People say never say never, but I think you can say it about West Virginia.

[NJCher]

40. Well, if that's the case

Then ask someone who is perfectly unqualified but who has name recognition. The republicans do it all the time.

Brad Paisley, their big entertainer. Flatter him into thinking he can save his state.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

27. Quibble: Manchin didn't resign. He's not running for re-election.

But also, Manchin himself was the glass half-full. Now it's empty.

[Captain Zero]

29. so, any chance Manchin will do the right thing since he is not running?

Any chance he becomes a principled person for the good of the country during the remainder of his term??

[Chellee]

31. No.

Because he is running. He's running for president. He just hasn't announced.

[Grown2Hate]

32. If Kentucky (and a slew of other races in

the last couple years) taught us anything, it's RUN AS A DEMOCRAT. No more Conservadems equivocating and trying to walk a tightrope (and believe me, I tolerate them if it's working for us and helps us to a majority, but with Manchin out of the picture, it's moot).

Run a strong Democrat that's going to stand up for Unions and abortion rights. I don't know what our bench looks like in WV, but it's time to go that route full throttle.

[standingtall]

39. West Virginia is not comparable to Kentucky

Kentucky is almost 3 times the population of West Virginia and is more diverse. Kentucky 83% white compared to West Virginia 91% white. West Virginia most populated county is about 175,000 compared to Kentucky's 777,000. The most populated Counties is where Beshear got most of his votes from. There is no place like Jefferson or Fayette County in West Virginia and there is only 3 counties there with a population of over 100,000.

[spanone]

33. I'm with Peacetrain

[DemocraticPatriot]

34. Joe Manchin should have stayed there, and attempted to defend his seat....

if he really cared about preventing fascism from taking control of our country.

Instead, he has now freed himself to 'explore' an independent presidential campaign that may ultimately destroy democracy in this country...

A Manchin loss for US Senate in West Virginia, would be MUCH BETTER than the path he is now eyeing...

.... and no, I don't think any other Democratic candidate has any chance to win that seat.

(cue the sacrificial lambs...)


(( if there is any other Democrat in West Virginia who can CONNECT with the poor and working class majority of that state, I will stand corrected regarding the Senate seat---- but can you name any names?? ))

[Staph]

35. West Virginia is making changes, but not in time for the 2024 election.

Over the last couple of years, all of Manchin's cronies were booted out of control of the state Democratic party. New, young, fresh faces have taken over, and they are starting to build from the ground up, working on local and regional races first.

We have a strong candidate for governor in 2024, in the mayor of Huntington, Steve Williams, who has taken the state's second largest city from bankruptcy to being named America's Best Community (and winning a $10 million prize for the city). His biggest problem is that he is not well known outside the western part of the state.

I think that Williams could win, if he goes hard as a classic Democrat. Supporting abortion, unions, public education and teachers. Standing up for the traditional West Virginia values that made us a reliably Democratic state from FDR until 9/11. West Virginia values like no exceptions for children missing their vaccine schedule (except medical reasons). Strongly supporting the two teachers' strikes back in 2018 and 2019 - the first for pay and the second to fight the Republican legislature's desire to privatize education. Emphasizing his policies that brought Huntington out of bankruptcy and brought business back to downtown. Show that he gets things done!

We won't turn this around quickly, but I think (and many other West Virginia Democrats think) that we can get the state back to electing Democrats. But it won't help if outsiders continue to portray us as toothless, obese hillbillies who don't wear shoes and can't read or write. (I'm talking to a few folks here on DU. The ones who have been saying for years that Joe Manchin would become a Republican. You don't know West Virginia and you don't know West Virginia politics.)

[Deep State Witch]

53. What do you think of Shrewsbury's chances?

I'm curious to hear what someone on the ground in WV has to say about him. He reminds me a lot of Fetterman.

[Staph]

67. Today was the first day

that I'd heard Shrewsbury's name or seen his website.

He has possibilities. No one can look at that body and face and claim that he's an "East Coast liberal"! His background is good. I'd like to hear his voice. I hope that he has a bit of a country accent, like Richard Ojeda.

As for his platform, I like it, but I'd reorganize the Platform page on his website. It currently has six issues, three per row. First row: Environmental Justice, Racial Justice, Investment in Union Jobs. Second row: Support for Veterans, Energy Independence, Healthcare for All. I'd flip those two rows - the items in the second row are of more importance to the average West Virginian. Or maybe combine Energy Independence with Environmental Justice and add something about strengthening our education system or providing a good education for all of our children.

He needs to get out and travel the state, right now. Show up for every festival and celebration, in every wide place in the road. Shake a lot of hands and hand out a simple printed version of his platform. Talk to as many locals in as many places as possible. Start a postcard campaign (I'd suggest that his people talk to SWEEP or even us here at DU.) He's already on ActBlue. His volunteer page is asking for folks to phone bank, text bank, canvass, write postcards, or submit op-eds.

There are a lot of folks here on Democratic Underground who have been involved in grassroots campaigns. What else can we do from an on-the-ground, on-the-cheap basis, to get his name and issues out there, before we have to start spending money on television, radio, and billboards?

[Warpy]

36. One of my 3 besties in high school was from WV

and her family has always been my yardstick for that state. She wasn't a bigot in any way, nor were her parents or siblings. They were all far from stupid.

WV is one of the most beautiful states in the country, but it's all up and down.There is a huge Union Carbide plant in Charleston plus paper mills dotted here and there, otherwise it's mostly coal.

And that means whole towns, thriving only 50 years ago, are now being abandoned as the coal mining jobs dried up in favor of less labor (and union) intensive mountaintop removal. I see that "reclamation": after this process means putting on a thin layer of topsoil, planting lawn grass, and building McMansions for the weekender crowd from places like DC.

Men like Manchin, who will do well off coal royalties no matter how it's taken out of the mountains, really need to be eliminated from the power structure if that state is to move on, at all. Without the coal boys running things, maybe the state will develop its tourism industry fully, skiing and snowshoeing in winter, fishing, hiking, and climbing in summer, and hunting in fall. The state, with the exception of the Kanawha Valley and that UC plant, is really drop dead gorgeous.

Of course, while there is steel being produced, there will be a need for coal. By products of that are used in everything from pharmaceuticals to dyes. We stopped burning it for heating. Now we need to stop burning it for electricity. Manchin need not worry, the other uses will still keep him rich.

[Staph]

68. As of 2021,

there were fewer that 12,000 coal miners in West Virginia, a state with a population of about 1.7 million. That's the lowest number of miners since 1890! (https://wvpublic.org/west-virginia-coal-mine-jobs-in-2021-were-fewest-since-1890/)

The problem is finding jobs for former coal miners in the southern part of the state. Those folks live in a purely vertical world, narrow little valleys between long, steep ridges. Transportation from town to town, from village to the nearest interstate or airport or railroad station is slow and difficult. It's tough to ask these folks to pick up and move, when their cost of living is so low.

As I have mentioned elsewhere, Manchin's cronies were booted out of control of the West Virginia Democratic Party over the last couple of years. We are rebuilding from the ground up, but it's going to take years, probably not in time to keep Jim Justice from moving into the Senate.

[Bev54]

37. I am confused. What does John Kennedy have to do with W Virginia?

I think the dems need to find a good candidate and has anybody polled the abortion issue there? I think if Presley was pro choice he may have won Mississippi.

I think the dems have to try in these states, first and foremost make sure they have solid candidates.

[scipan]

38. If you want to do a hail Mary? Bernie 2016

51 Bernie -36 Hillary

I think they may be anti billionaires and anti corporations. Or pro unions.

[Zeitghost]

41. Manchin

Is best case scenario at this time in WV. A few of us have tried to point that out with little luck. He was our best shot at holding down a senate seat there. This is a loss.

[Drum]

42. I grew up in WV and I approve this message!

[democrank]

44. Thank you, Peacetrain.

We should never give up on a state, never stop trying.

[In It to Win It]

45. I don't think Joe Manchin has been a burden as he has helped gotten significant legislation passed

Sure, Joe Manchin was a pain in the ass sometimes and there isn’t a TV camera he can’t stay away from. However, he’s helped some good legislation passed. He’s helped get some Republican support for it. When it counted, he voted with Dems for the Inflation Reduction Act.

I would rather have him than not have him.

[Deminpenn]

46. WVa Dems need to find their John Fetterman

or Bob Casey. Jmho, but either of those economic populists could win in WVa.

The Kentucky comparison is more relevent than one might think as Beshear won a swath of eastern Kentucky coal country counties.

The recent cuts at WVU might be a catalyst for change, too. Those riled up a lot of people.

[Deep State Witch]

54. Zach Shrewsbury

https://www.shrewsburyforsenate.com/

[Deminpenn]

70. Seems like they have

There are plenty of retired miners with mining related health problems where the benefits rug promised them like health insurance and pensions has been pulled out from under their feet.

A candidate who campaigns on plan to address and fix this unfairness would have a real good chance, imho. It shouldn't be lost on anyone how well Bernie Sanders did in WVa in the primary (and the rural red areas of PA, too).

[karynnj]

72. As a Vermonter, i wonder if it was not the economic populism, but rural Vermonters

Who vouched for Bernie in his ads. As congressman and Senator, Bernie was all over the state, talking and meeting with everyone. He did not win just the Burlington area, Montpelier, Bennington and Middlebury. He won in very rural counties.

I hope that any Democrat who does run gets advise and help from Bernie.

[no_hypocrisy]

47. There are very blue pockets in WV.

Example: Shepherdstown. A vibrant college town. They are not MAGA territory.

With the right kind of organization and promotion, the democratic party may be able (albeit, barely) keep the Senate seat.

[Emile]

48. Give WV Democrats a real Democrat to vote for!

[muriel_volestrangler]

49. Realism, from John Cole, WV resident and blogger at Balloon Juice:

While I will miss his vote as a mostly Democrat, I will definitely not miss his self-serving bullshit, non-stop posturing and mugging for the cameras, and getting in the way of progress and the current century using the will of the voters as his justification. Just fuck off already and go home and roll in your piles of coal money. Hell, don’t even go home. Live on your yacht.

Personally, my nightmare scenario is him stepping down, running around damaging Biden with no labels bullshit for all of 2024, and then being appointed the President of WVU when Gee quits [ed. note: Cole works at West Virginia University]. So that’s probably what will happen, even though you’d think he and his daughter Heather Bresch had done enough damage to WVU.

And don’t anyone begin to fool you that this could be a Democrat hold if we find the right candidate. Just ignore them. We’re about to get the most pig ignorant money grubbing degenerate the WV GOP can puke up, so that probably means Jim Justice is probably the BEST option. He’s just stupid and a crook.

https://balloon-juice.com/2023/11/09/i-love-this-for-him/

[Lovie777]

51. Manchin has a democratic challenger.......................

read about him earlier today here. Let''s see how it plays out.

[Deep State Witch]

52. Check Out Zach Shrewsbury

A lot of people are down on WV, and maybe rightly so. But Shrewsbury got into the race last week, and was all set to primary Manchin. Now he's the only one running. He's a former Marine, environmental activist, and pro-union. Oh, and he's for common sense gun regulation, but not anti-gun. Kind of reminds me of John Fetterman.

https://www.shrewsburyforsenate.com/

[doc03]

55. I think there was some money involved in the JFK primary. Back then

WV was as Blue then as they are Red today. The election of Obama was the end of
Democrats in WV.

[Staph]

69. West Virginia voted for GW Bush. Twice.

Obama did not kill the Democratic Party in West Virginia.

[doc03]

71. I am not saying Obama killed WV for Democrats. The election of a black

man as president did. As I recall a prison inmate in Texas beat Obama in the primary
that year. Some here say people in WV aren't racist, I live in the area where it is common to hear the "N"
word daily. Not saying everyone is like that but most are. Sure they voted for GWB twice NAFTA and
that was followed by the black guy.

[elocs]

57. Sorry, I don't believe in gifts from heaven. There are maga cultists who believe that's what Trump is. n/t

[awesomerwb1]

58. Zero chance.

[nycbos]

61. John Kennedy ran in 1960 things have changed.

Manchin looked at the polling knew he had no chance and decided to call it quits. Thinking we have a chance to win West Virginia is like Republicans thinking they're gonna win California.