What are the chances of Peltola(D-AK),Beshear(D-KY),and Bel Edwards(D-LA) getting elected to the US Senate?

[nkpolitics1212]

2024
51)Mucarsel Powell(D-FL)
52)Allred(D-TX)
2026
53)Peltola(D-AK)
54)Bel Edwards(D-LA)
55)Golden(D-ME)
56)Cooper(D-NC)
57)Kelly(D-TX)
2028
58)Beasher(D-KY)
59)Jackson(D-NC)
60)Godlewski(D-WI)

[yellowdogintexas]

1. Beshear is running for Governor and is likely to stay out his term if

re-elected If I had to guess, I could see him running in the next Senate race which comes up after his term is over. He can't run for a third consecutive term as governor.

[nkpolitics1212]

4. This means he runs against Rand Paul.

Andy Beshear’s Lt Governor Jacqueline Coleman is going to be the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2027. To give Coleman the incumbency advantage for the 2027 KY Governors Race, Beshear could run for the US Senate in 2026.

[yellowdogintexas]

9. Good Point. I was not sure how the math worked out in all this. nt

[brooklynite]

2. Beshear and Bel Edwards have no chance...

...there's a distinction many voters make between what they look for in a State leader and a Federal representative.

[dsc]

3. I think Cooper would have a better shot

than Beasher or Bel Edwards. I think Peltola could do well, she is after all in Congress having won two elections statewide for that seat. If they had a similarly divisive candidate on the GOP side to Palin Peltola could slide in.

[nkpolitics1212]

5. If Peltola were to run for the US Senate, How would she do against Sullivan in 2026 or Murkowski in 2028?

Murkowski can face opposition from the right like she did in 2022 ie Kelly Tshibaka.

[dsc]

7. They have ranked choice voting in Alaska

so an outright vote split is impossible. What happened in her other two races is that Palin and another GOP candidate ran and the second choice of many who voted for the other candidate was Peltola and not Palin. I think Murkowski would likely beat Peltola but I think it is possible that Sullivan could lose in a multi candidate scenario.

[sabbat hunter]

6. my opinions below

51)Mucarsel Powell(D-FL) not a snowballs chance
52)Allred(D-TX) nope
2026
53)Peltola(D-AK) - only if someone runs 3rd party to split the GOP vote
54)Bel Edwards(D-LA) stranger things have happened
55)Golden(D-ME) good shot
56)Cooper(D-NC) 50/50
57)Kelly(D-TX) nope
2028
58)Beasher(D-KY) all signs point to no
59)Jackson(D-NC) 50/50 shot
60)Godlewski(D-WI) 80/20 shot of winning

[Celerity]

8. my thoughts on each listed

Peltola (D-AK) cannot defeat Murkowski or Sullivan IMHO, barring some weird splitting of the RW vote

Beshear (D-KY) has a chance to defeats McTurtle's replacement Rethug in 2026, if he chooses to run (if he wins the Governorship again I do not see him running for the Senate in 2026 though, but I could be wrong on that)

Bel Edwards (D-LA) has a slight chance in 2026 or 2028, but Senate is much harder for a Dem to win in LA than Gov is

Mucarsel Powell (D-FL) FL is Red now and will remain so for some time, I do not seeing us winning a Senate seat there for a long time. I also do not see her as a strong candidate anyway.

Allred (D-TX) I do not seeing us winning a Senate seat in Texas for a long time, plus TX is racist AF.

Cooper (D-NC) yes he would have a chance

Kelly (D-TX) I do not seeing us winning a Senate seat in Texas for a long time, bit I think he would have a better chance than Allred, as TX is so fucking racist

Jackson (D-NC) yes, he would have a chance

Godlewski(D-WI) yes, she would have a chance

Golden (D-ME) (and a No Labels Problem Solvers Caucus member) Likely is too conservative to win the Democratic primary

Golden was one of two Democrats to vote against the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.

On May 24, 2023, Golden was one of only two House Democrats, along with Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, to vote with Republicans to overturn President Biden's student loan debt cancellation plan.

Golden was the lone House Democrat to vote against the Build Back Better Act.

On January 31, 2023, Golden was among seven Democrats to vote for H.R.497:Freedom for Health Care Workers Act, a bill that would lift COVID-19 vaccine mandates for healthcare workers.

On February 1, 2023, Golden was among 12 Democrats to vote for a resolution to end the COVID-19 national emergency.

Golden was one of four Democrats who voted with the majority of House Republicans to pass the annual defense policy bill, which included provisions prohibiting Pentagon spending on abortion and transgender surgeries.

Golden was the only Democrat to vote against the Bipartisan Background Checks Act to expand background checks on gun purchases and one of two House Democrats, along with Ron Kind of Wisconsin, to vote against the Enhanced Background Checks Act of 2021, designed to close the so-called Charleston loophole.

In 2022, Golden was one of two Democrats, the other being lame duck Kurt Schrader of Oregon, to vote against raising the minimum age to purchase semi-automatic rifles from 18 to 21.