Hypothetically...If Hamas unconditionally

[radicalleft]

Surrenders today and released the hostages and abdicated all power, what would be next? What would change to insure this never happens again?

[onecaliberal]

1. Where are all the people going to go who have had their homes bombed to rubble?

[NoRethugFriends]

11. Your "response" is not a reponse to the post.

[onecaliberal]

20. Sure, Jan.

[NoRethugFriends]

28. Jan.?

[brooklynite]

2. In your hypothetical are the organizers and participants of Oct 7 facing criminal justice?

[radicalleft]

4. Absolutely

Without a doubt. The attacks by Hamas were atrocious and are the be condemned and adjudicated as such.

[radicalleft]

10. Is there a follow up question

Eom

[brooklynite]

44. If that's the case, then a cease-fire isn't a hypothetical, it's a fantasy.

[JohnSJ]

49. I agree. I suspect they envisioned October 7 as their prelude to start the process, knowing

what the response from Israel would be, thinking it would unite the Arab world against Israel to join them.

[radicalleft]

55. All right fantasy then

In this fantasy world what happens next?

[Archae]

3. That would mean around the world, it would be like post WW2...

Nazi Germany gave up, Hitler shot himself, so no more Nazis, anywhere!

Ummm...there are no more Nazis anywhere in the world, right?

So Hamas would disappear also?

Ummm...

[ripcord]

5. Hamas members would be executed to the last person

[radicalleft]

7. And after

What happens next to insure stability in Gaza?

[obamanut2012]

15. We both know that is impossible

Still Nazis, still IRA.

[Beastly Boy]

6. There are no insurances involved.

The Palestinian Authority, the de jure ruler of Gaza, had already refused to take part in the governance of Gaza.

Gaza, for all practical purposes, is a failed state and will remain so. I don't know what legal status a failed state has or what international rules govern failed states, but I am guessing it will be up to the international community to determine what the future of Gaza will look like.

[cachukis]

12. Curiously, is Cuba a failed state?

[Mosby]

27. According to Biden it is.

Nt

[cachukis]

30. Is he your spokesman?

[Beastly Boy]

32. No.

Cuba ranks 117 on the Fragule State Index, with Somalia, Yemen and South Sudan being in the top 3.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index

You will not find Gaza on this list because Gaza is not technically a state.

[cachukis]

45. Semantics aside, it would seem the success or

failure of a state is dependent on outside sources. Cuba has a closed minded government imposing a restricted economics on it's people. It is not, by any stretch a flourishing state.
Could the same be said for Gaza? Notwithstanding Hamas restrictions placed on its citizens, could a more neighborly approach over the past years kept Hamas from flourishing?
What was the point of supporting the religious bigotry of that sect?
The Arab world pushed Jews from their enclaves in the Middle East exemplifying an animosity that had to be addressed.
Would Israel be able to manage without American support?

So much of what is unfolding seems to be dependent on relations managed by self serving parties.

Is there an escape? What is on the other side of this drama?

There are a lot of people not familiar with what has led to this point picking sides. Some are looking at the underdog as they too see life from the other side.

[Beastly Boy]

50. Comparing Gaza to Cuba is pretty arbitrary to begin with.

You can find some similarities, but with equal effort you may find many more differences.

Of course, there is no such thing as a completely self-sufficient state. In a post-capitalist world, it's a given, and nobody will dispute it. The difference between a failed and non-failed state is determined on a scale. There are parameters to this scale, which are too lengthy to examine in a post, but comparatively speaking, Gaza is much closer to Yemen than it is to Cuba.

Whether a more neighborly approach to Gaza was, is, or will ever be even possible is a matter of pure guesswork: there are no signs that it is, or ever was, a possibility, at least since Hamas took it over.

My answers to your questions are as good as yours. And my answer is, I honestly don't have any answers.

[cachukis]

57. I agree, Cuba was arbitrary, but we know Cuba

perhaps a bit more than Gaza.

I have read a bit about Yasir Arafat and his negotiations with Israel. Under no circumstances was he going to give in to the loss of his purported territory.

The Israelis have always negotiated from a perspective of strength. They have had US backing.

Barak was astonished that Arafat would not come to grips with what even Clinton said was fair. It was not fair to the Palestinians.

The Israelis rightfully want control over their world, yet part of their world is controlled by a political enemy willing to respond to what they feel are incursions. There are incursions.

The world sees this and while some may appear to support Hamas, I'd bet 25 cents they don't know Hamas but feel the Palestinians are getting the short end of the stick.

Some of this might show as anti semitism, but I don't think most of the protesters are against Jews, but they are against Israeli reprisal to the innocents of Palestine.

People have a tendency to respond to what's on the surface.

This conflict has pricked a nerve that had been somewhat docile for a time.

Racism across the board has reared its ugly head since trump turned over the rocks.

I worry that the aftermath in Gaza will have a longer lasting impact on the rest of us that could have been avoided with a little more sharing.

[radicalleft]

13. So a failed state that encompasses

140.9 miles squared that has no functional government with approximately 2 million people are left to do what?

[Beastly Boy]

35. It's way above my pay grade to answer your question,

What I said before, and I can only repeat this, my guess is that the future of Gaza is likely to be determined by the international community, but even this is not a certainty.

[LeftInTX]

21. It is not "legally" classified as a failed state.

It is classified by the United States as an occupied state by Israel.

Sure a failed state, but occupied under Israel.

Real failed states are short-lived and often subject to immediate takeovers by hostile surrounding countries. They often last only a few years.

[Beastly Boy]

36. For all practical purposes. Not legally.

It's in my post.

[no_hypocrisy]

8. How do you hold non-affiliated individuals

belonging to no one country accountable?

Don’t expect a new round of Nuremberg Trials.

[radicalleft]

9. I want to know what happens after

the Justice has been served for the attacks. What happens to Gaza?

[onecaliberal]

18. I'd like to know as well.

[1WorldHope]

14. There is no justice.

Hamas won't surrender.
The anger is spreading world wide and it looks pretty bad from here. Humans will keep being human. They will keep doing stupid thoughtless things until everyone is dead.
But I'm an optimist.

[radicalleft]

16. I understand your points but please humor me

What happens after justice is served to the peoples of Israel?

[1WorldHope]

25. There will be no justice for anyone.

An unstoppable object is colliding with an unmovable one. Death on both sides and anyone standing in the way.
It's a sad state of affairs that humans have 1 life on this beautiful planet and they choose war and destruction.

[Big Blue Marble]

41. Justice or revenge?

Do you really think that the suffering of millions and death and wounding of tens of thousands
in Gaza is only about justice?

Edit to add: Why is justice only for Israel. What about justice for the people of Palestine?

[radicalleft]

43. No I don't

But there are very vocal supporters here on DU of what is happening in Gaza that want to see “justice”

Edit to add to your edit:
There never will be any…they will be a footnote in the history books of the victors.

[Big Blue Marble]

47. I understand.

And yes once again might makes right and human race fails.

[NoRethugFriends]

29. Well said

[Mosby]

17. Better security at the fence line and the towns and kibbutzim

The towns and Kibbutzim were unprepared and under staffed in terms of security. There were not enough IDF outposts and the ones there were understaffed.

Hamas isn't going to change, so Israel just needs to do a better job protecting its citizens.

Eta there is a discussion going on in Israel whether Palestinian workers should be given work permits anymore.

[radicalleft]

19. Hamas in Gaza will be rendered impotent

of that I have no doubt. What I want to know is how do you prevent it from happening again? What becomes of Gaza?

[LeftInTX]

22. I don't think it will unfortunately. It will get a set back.

Israel will wash it's hands and fortify it's borders. A foreign group will create Hamas 2.0. Tunnels will be redug. Nothing will change. Gaza will just get more crowded. No solutions.

[Mosby]

23. Gazans aren't going anywhere, it's their home.

But because of Hamas, there will be more restrictions traveling into Israel.

I think Israel will make headway with eroding Hamas's ability to execute attacks, but they aren't going away.

[NoRethugFriends]

31. And reign in the ultra-orthodox

[JohnSJ]

24. It won't happen. The Hamas charter makes it clear that they want all Jews eliminated, and

Israel destroyed

[radicalleft]

26. That is why Israel is taking the war to them

Once Hamas is defeated and justice has been served, how do you prevent it from happening again?

[LauraInLA]

33. There are no guarantees of success, but...

There are already several proposals shared publicly by international relations, diplomacy, and policy wonks. They involve interim government and peacekeeping forces led by Arab nations and the U.N. Some include restructuring the Palestinian Authority to include more groups (like Hamas). Some include Israel dismantling settlements in the West Bank. I’ve shared one or two in separate posts here, if you’re interested.

[radicalleft]

39. I am interested

And I will look for them

[LauraInLA]

48. Sorry I didn't list any.

Foreign Affairs magazine (online) has some. I know I shared an article by Dennis Ross, who worked on the peace process in the ‘90s. Thomas Friedman seems to be perking up and I shared something of his. I think if an Arab coalition steps in to lead the rebuilding and rehabilitation, it will be telling to see who “leads”: Saudi Arabia? Jordan? Egypt? UAE? Iran?

There’s also a piece about how the war could be concluded, written by Bret Stephens in the NYTimes and quoting former PM Naftali Bennett, but I hadn’t posted it b/c I thought it might be inflammatory. Here’s an archived link: https://archive.ph/nxPTj

I hope this is helpful.

[radicalleft]

52. I will look at this

This evening thanks

[totodeinhere]

34. If Hamas ceased to exist today someone else

would probably come along to take their place. However any replacement for Hamas would need outside support from Iran or some other state. So I think the best way forward is to try to find some way to make sure that Iran can no longer sponsor groups like this. How this can be done I am not sure.

[brooklynite]

61. If Hamas ceased to exist today, Hezbollah would still be there...

...and Fatah would still not recognize Israel's right to exist. So, no difference.

I would also suspect Israel would seal the border with Gaza, allow NO worker entries, and leave it up to Egypt to provide them with an economic future.

[Big Blue Marble]

37. It is looking more and like there will no more Gaza.

There is no infrastructure, no hospitals (only a few are operating now and cannot last much longer)
What is left will be a shell incapable of supporting the remaining Gazans.

The pressure will grow on Egypt to accept the survivors and the Strip will be ethnically cleansed.
Those who live through this hell will be traumatized for their lifetimes once again driven from
their homes.

[radicalleft]

40. Thank you

I appreciate your thoughts

[MattBaggins]

38. Annexation

NuttyYahoo will annex the northern section that they are "cleansing" at the moment.

Gazans will be squeezed into the southern section, and eventually out of existence.

This is two groups that want each other eliminated and the Gazans are going to lose that war.

Hamas should have thought about that before provoking NuttyYahoo and slaughtering innocent people in such a vile terrorist attack. Yes my answer is grim and gloomy but eventually the Gaza Strip will be a part of Israel. Realpolitik

[radicalleft]

42. I fear you are right

It is so sad for so many reasons

[EndlessWire]

54. I don't think so.

I think that annexation for both Gaza and The West Bank is off the table. In fact, I think the Israeli settlers in the West Bank will be politely told to leave, with compensation by the Government for their cooperation.

The UN will come in and set up a "tent" city and begin to organize and rebuild. Food, shelter and medical care come first. Heading off disease outbreaks is of paramount importance. There's nothing else that can be done. They have nowhere to go, unless they request visas for some country willing to take them in.

They can elect a new government. Start by clearing the rubble up and building the most up to date hospital. At the same time, rebuild the desalinization plant. Utility infrastructure is very important.

Also, making sure they have a working sea port is important. That should be high on the list.

They are adults. They have the final say in how they redevelop their infrastructure. If someone comes along and says, "Can I help you by hauling off your rubble?" they'll probably tell them yes.

[radicalleft]

59. Israel will never leave the settlements

I just don’t see that happening

[EndlessWire]

60. Great pressure

placed on them by the international community may reverse their thinking. They were willing to give back territories that they captured before, in the interest of peace. With the exception of Jerusalem, which is very problematical, this shouldn't be that hard. They are fighting already. Pay the settlers enough, and they will leave voluntarily.

If Gaza is settled, then Israel might find itself fighting with the West Bank without the support of the US. They need to think about what it would mean if this happens, and you know that settlers will push it to the limits until their part of the problem flares up. And, I don't think you can settle Gaza if you don't settle TWB at the same time.

[quakerboy]

62. So your thinking

is that the same country that has made it so even people with US passports are unable to get out of Gaza, nor virtually any water or food in.. is going to suddenly turn the whole thing over to the UN?

The same country that actively stops any vessels headed to the coastline in order to prevent any contraband (such as rocket parts and chocolate) from getting to Gaza is going to just hand over control to outside nations and let them have a big sea port?

And the country that just issued a bunch of weapons to west bank settlers.. is going to just up and sweep their own citizens out of the area?

This all seems wildly improbable to me.

[elias7]

46. Gazans have been pawns since 1948

The 20 or so surrounding Arab-Muslim nations have historically not taken in Palestinian refugees so that they remain in play. Make no mistake, the long play is “from the river to the sea” eradication of a Jewish state. So, I don’t think the area will be abandoned, nor does Israel want the land or the governance, they just want to be left alone.

Egypt administrated Gaza from 1948-1967, then Israel did until ceding control in 2005. Gaza voted in Hamas, though Hamas is by no means the only jihadian terrorist group in the close region. Don’t know what proportion of Gazans support Hamas, though from the information campaign out there, it would seem like 0% of Palestinian civilians support Hamas, so frames the citizenry as perpetual victims.

Maybe the UN could administer Gaza, since they seem to have plenty to say about their support for them. Maybe young Gazans can step up into a responsible leadership role and structure. Given that no Arab nations have a Democratic model of governance, however, I’m not sure how that could possibly work out without corruption.

[Big Blue Marble]

51. Israel is systematically making Gaza uninhabitable..

I do not see how or who is willing to rebuild the infrastructure. Most of the homes in northern Gaza.
are gone. Most hospitals are gone. The sewers and water lines destroyed. The roads filled
with rubble. And this is before the ground invasion and the destruction of the bulldozers.
Gaza will be no more.

Your theory about the Arab States may have been true at one time, but is not true now.
Like the rest of the world, the Arab States have abandoned these people. They are busy
making peace and trade deals with Israel. They want the surveillance technologies that
Israel uses to control the Palestinians, to hold on to their power. The world has changed;
and the Arab countries have changed. No one, but radicalized groups like Hamas want
to destroy Israel and that will never happen.

Israel has built a superstructure around the remaining pockets of Palestinians in the West
Bank.allowing hundreds of thousands of illegal settlers to make the Palestinian lives intolerable
while making a two state solution impossible. The ugly truth is the only ones who keep
these people alive are the UN and the NGO's. No one else in leadership positions care a bit
whether they live or die including our government.

[radicalleft]

53. Thank you so much

For this post! Yours is a voice of sanity in the bloodlust for war.

[WarGamer]

56. why would they surrender?

The whole point of 10-7 was to start a massive war and turn Global opinion against Israel as Hamas predicted an Israeli reaction with unlimited violence against civilians.

Sadly, the IDF is playing into Hamas game right now.

[Kennah]

58. Operation Wrath of God II

[Hekate]

63. Hypothetically, if you read the Hamas Charter as explained in The Atlantic...

…will you and those who agree with you in this moment please tell the rest of us why you think there is a snowball’s chance in Hell that Hamas will ever do as you imagine? There’s no paywall at this time — please just read it and get back to me.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/hamas-covenant-israel-attack-war-genocide/675602/

The most relevant of the document’s 36 articles can be summarized as falling within four main themes:

The complete destruction of Israel as an essential condition for the liberation of Palestine and the establishment of a theocratic state based on Islamic law (Sharia),
The need for both unrestrained and unceasing holy war (jihad) to attain the above objective,
The deliberate disdain for, and dismissal of, any negotiated resolution or political settlement of Jewish and Muslim claims to the Holy Land, and
The reinforcement of historical anti-Semitic tropes and calumnies married to sinister conspiracy theories.
*****
Israel’s Complete and Utter Destruction
snip
Holy War
snip
Nothing Is Negotiable
snip
Base Anti-Semitism
snip

[radicalleft]

66. Oh I've read it in the past

And that’s the whole point of my post. So my question really is, when Gaza has been leveled and the Gazans are driven out what happens next?

[Hekate]

68. Warriors whose goal is the utter annihilation of some other group will not stop...

…just because everything around them is rubble. From among the people who have lost everything, they will forge new recruits.

Failing that — well, do you recall the women in suicide vests? “Lady, we have your children and other loved ones. Wear this suicide vest we are strapping on to you or we will kill every person in your family. “

[Straw Man]

64. Gee, I don't know.

What happened after the surrenders of Germany and Japan in the Second World War?

[radicalleft]

67. So you believe that an international coalition

Will go in and rebuild and everyone lives in peace and harmony?

[Straw Man]

69. That would be the most desirable outcome.

But it won't happen as long as Hamas exists.

[AZLD4Candidate]

65. They are a dishonest actor. The only way to deal with Hamas is to wipe them all out.