Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Peacetrain

(23,504 posts)
Mon Oct 2, 2023, 08:10 PM Oct 2023

The polls showing Trump ahead 1% or 10% or tied.. are all fabrications due to

the fact that the Democrats are not in the race on any level right now.

Having dealt with all things Iowa for a while.. that is all we had .. was non stop republicans.. and they were out doing themslelves to not attack Trump at the time

Well that is also happening nationwide right now.. there is no news coming out from the Democratic side outside of that Robert Kennedy.. and he is going Indy..

All the news is about the republicans.. so when people get polled.. and they are saying well looks like Trump is leading the Republicans 50% and they are getting all the news all the time.. the fact that some poll comes across and says Trump is ahead of Biden by 1% or 10% or mostly tied, just shows how poorly Trump is really doing..

Think about it..

19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
 

Mixtas

(27 posts)
2. Polls also ask if people think Trump committed a crime
Mon Oct 2, 2023, 08:15 PM
Oct 2023

We should just stop being poll truthers. That’s all.
Poll trutherism is a MAGA thing.

Freethinker65

(10,497 posts)
3. Trump has been found guilty, so even that question is a leading question in Trump's favor.
Mon Oct 2, 2023, 08:25 PM
Oct 2023

I agree there is no reason to get upset about current Biden vs. Trump polls. I should probably just scroll past these threads.

 

Mixtas

(27 posts)
13. Guilty of a crime is criminal court
Tue Oct 3, 2023, 06:23 AM
Oct 2023

Technically, there’s no such thing as a crime and civil court. Otherwise, it would be called criminal court.

Is it fair? No. But pollsters can’t it a crime.

Freethinker65

(10,497 posts)
18. Trump's company has been found guilty of a crime.
Tue Oct 3, 2023, 12:04 PM
Oct 2023

Trump has always said he IS the company. He uses the company's assets in his manufactured net worth. He brags about his business acumen.

Poll questions are worded very specifically for a reason. Also, are the questions of the poll always in the same order?

Unless the polls are only asking one question (Biden vs. Trump) to randomized voters, results can be intentionally or unintentionally swayed. That is my only point.

So yes, I believe the polls as they are asked and taken represent the snapshot opinions of voters while answering the questions of the poll.

JohnSJ

(93,949 posts)
4. First of all these are national polls. The 10% polls are outliers because the other National polls
Mon Oct 2, 2023, 08:26 PM
Oct 2023

indicate a tie within MOE.

I personally have problems with polls today because of all the spam calls, I think many people do not answer calls from numbers they do not recognize, and I am skeptical that the pollsters have accounted for that satisfactorily.

That being said, to discard these polls we would do so at our own peril.

They are telling us that there is a large fraction of the population out there that are extremely dangerous.

Democrats need to take a much more aggressive stand on things, especially since much of today's media is filled with shallow, and both sides do it reporting.

Democrats need to start calling republicans out, and by name.

With the press constantly spewing how Biden is too old, and Biden is unpopular, while spewing the more charges Trump has, the more popular he is, makes one wonder if that reporting influences the polls.



 

TexasDem69

(2,317 posts)
8. Why wouldn't they be accurate
Mon Oct 2, 2023, 09:49 PM
Oct 2023

Trump beat Hillary, and he came within 100k votes in a handful of states of beating Biden. I’m constantly flummoxed by the folks who think he can’t win. That is dangerous and lazy thinking. He beat Hillary even after the “grab them by the pussy” scandal.

JohnSJ

(93,949 posts)
12. I stated my possible reasons above. One, they are national polls, and two a significant number
Tue Oct 3, 2023, 01:03 AM
Oct 2023

of people do not answer calls from numbers they do not recognize because of all the spammers

The reason Trump beat Hillary was in every critical swing state Hillary lost those states by less than 1% of the vote while Jill Stein received 1% of the vote in those states. Presidential Elections are determined by states, not national polls.

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.9million votes. That isn’t how presidents are elected, but by electoral college which is states, not a national poll.

RFK jr, promoted by Bannon and other right wing thugs are trying to do the same thing.

If you are trying to argue Hillary lost even after the “pussy grabbing” scandal, perhaps you weren’t paying attention Comey sent a letter to the republicans in Congress 11 days before the election, saying they were looking at emails on a laptop, and the illustrious media followed through with every right wing pundit across the media outlets falsely saying the email investigation was reopened. That was a lie, and what Comey did was a violation of the Hatch Act.

Late Friday the weekend before the general election, Comey came out and quietly said no new information was found on the laptop, and there would not be reopening of the email investigation, but the damage had already been done.

Before Comey Sent the letter, Hillary was leading in all the polls by 4 points. After Comey’s recklessness, that lead was completely erased, and the misrepresentation from the media insured it would be close.

Also, the coverage by the media on Hillary was 62% negative coverage to 38% positive coverage, while coverage of Trump by the media was 56% negative to 44% positive.

and the media is playing the same game again with Biden, filling the airwaves how old Biden and unpopular Biden is, then running their push polls “do you think Biden is too old”, not even mentioning how old Trump is.

Another flaw is the favorability polls. republicans when polled will be favorable toward Trump almost universally, and vote for him in the general election, while Democrats will give mixed favorable numbers for Biden, but will certainly vote for Biden in the general election, especially against Trump. The problem is much of the media tries to equate favorable ratings to translate to votes, and that isn’t necessarily true.

The final point is that we are very far out from the election, and most likely the will be decided by independents, who won’t make their decision until they know who the final candidates are.








Cosmocat

(14,672 posts)
15. Right
Tue Oct 3, 2023, 07:33 AM
Oct 2023

I am out here and this is where this country is.

And, its the usual bullshit.

Rst relentlessly throwing out hyperbolic bullshit, the media giving that relentless bullshit air time and going further speaking to it like it is legitimate political discourse, and Ds not hitting back.

All my life it has been the Rs beating the Ds bloody while making themselves out to victim.

So ... Our third gets it and cares, their third wants a chriso fascist authoritarian state and all the "middle" third hear is how we are the scum of the earth and think there must be something to that.

 

TexasDem69

(2,317 posts)
7. They aren't fabrications
Mon Oct 2, 2023, 09:46 PM
Oct 2023

They might not accurately reflect the race but they aren’t created out of whole cloth either. I personally don’t think it matters if Trump is up or down 1%, the fact is he’s going to be the Republican candidate and he’s going to get 60 million votes. President Biden just needs to get the +1 he needs to win.

Cosmocat

(14,672 posts)
16. Its that simple except the last part
Tue Oct 3, 2023, 07:34 AM
Oct 2023

He needs the votes in the right places based on the electoral college, and no sure bet at this point that some states with R power in the state capitol comply with that, even.

Recycle_Guru

(2,973 posts)
9. yep. Dems have started a fall campaign to tell their stories
Mon Oct 2, 2023, 10:02 PM
Oct 2023

which will be important seeding of the conversation so that there is lots of context when they really go after it in Spring and fall next year. Summer will be dominated by conventions--people's vacations...mo poll 13 months out should be looked at very seriously.

keithbvadu2

(38,108 posts)
11. There are many polls. Pick the one you like and swear by it. Swear at the others. .............
Mon Oct 2, 2023, 10:11 PM
Oct 2023

There are many polls.

Pick the one you like and swear by it.

Swear at the others.

.................... That's why candidates sometimes refer to mystery polls that no one can locate to check.

keithbvadu2

(38,108 posts)
17. Poll accuracy +/- %
Tue Oct 3, 2023, 08:07 AM
Oct 2023

I read once that poll accuracy is determined by the number of folks polled.

Take the square root of the number polled.

Divide 100 by that square root.

It gives you the approx +/_ accuracy.

400 folks polled is +/_ 5% accurate.

1600 folks polled is +/_ 2.5% accurate

Very rough and simplistic.

A statistics class would hammer you with more details.

Especially; are the folks polled a valid cross section of the voters?

Or; are they mostly true believers in the issue/candidate or mostly non-believers?

Is it a neutral poll or a push poll that guides you toward the answers they really want?

(from Statistics 101 class) A telephone poll taken in the 20s or 30s indicated that a certain candidate would win.
Didn’t happen. The other guy won.
Turns out that it was not a sample of the general population.
Only the relatively well-to-do could afford telephones so they did not sample the ‘common folk’.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»The polls showing Trump a...