Biden Posts His Biggest Lead Yet In Democratic Primary Polls, Strengthening Base

[bigtree]

...more and more Democrats are registering their support for the incumbent president's re-election, the highest number yet this year in yesterday's Morning Consult tracking.

Among declared Democratic candidates, Pres. Biden is still seen as the best-positioned to beat Trump.

A segment of Democratic voters may continue to harbor concerns about President Joe Biden’s re-election bid, but survey trends suggest he is growing stronger with the base.

According to the latest Morning Consult tracking, 76% of potential Democratic primary voters said they’d vote for Biden if the party’s presidential nominating contest were held in their state today. That’s a record high so far this year and up from 70% in early April, a few weeks before he officially announced his plans to seek a second term.

While Biden faces no serious challengers for the Democratic presidential nomination, the presence of gadfly candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson have contributed to some unhelpful headlines for his re-election bid in recent months. But the survey also suggests those candidates may have already seen their own high-water marks.

Kennedy and Williamson posted respective shares of 9% and 3% — record lows for their campaigns so far — though both figures were within the margins of error for our surveys testing the race. Kennedy’s decline could be the latest sign that as Democratic voters hear more of his iconoclastic pitch, the less they think of him. As my colleague, U.S. Politics Analyst Eli Yokley, noted earlier this summer, Kennedy’s popularity is trending up with Republicans and down with Democrats.

https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/joe-biden-rfk-jr-poll-sept-2023

[Sympthsical]

1. No one's running

No one serious, at least.

The CNN poll got people pressed.

[bigtree]

2. remember that

...the point seems to be lost in these polls grousing about his age or some other bugaboo.

Joe Biden is still seen by Democrats as the man to beat Trump, in increasing numbers which should soar as more fickle Democrats recognize their fantasy candidate isn't even in the game.

[Sympthsical]

5. Remember this

Turn out and enthusiasm matter.

[bigtree]

12. not my first rodeo

...was riding a similar negative wave a year before Obama's re-election.

We're in the fantasy candidate phase of the campaign. It may well be an opportune time for wishful thinking, but Joe Biden is our nominee, and no candidate other than the two party noms have any chance of becoming president.

All of these seemingly important stats and impressions about age and enthusiasm are going to quickly recede in the face of the clear, stark choice voters have already faced in the last election, this time with a successful incumbency buttressing our nominee.

This polling shows that trend has already begun.

[Demsrule86]

34. Remember this...if folks don't turn out to stop Trump for a but her emails type bullshit. They

deserve what they get. In fact, it is worse because Biden has done a great job and deserves to be reelected. I believe he will win handily. Roe Roe Roe your vote.

[W_HAMILTON]

7. And no one's running because they know they can't beat him.

Which speaks to both his popularity and electability.

Hope this dose of reality doesn't get anyone pressed!

[Sympthsical]

10. The decision's made

I'm currently leading in a poll of my cats on who they'd like to make dinner. It's either me or managing to get the fridge door open.

Which, I actually don't put past them.

It's fine. I'll vote for whomever the Democratic candidate is. But this "People support the only choice we've given them!" is some shit. That's not the headline you think it is. Not outside of an authoritarian country, at least.

[W_HAMILTON]

11. "The decision has been made."

As I asked you elsewhere, what decision? Who has made it? Spit it out.

[Sympthsical]

14. Clearing the field

It's a concept in a party system.

[W_HAMILTON]

17. AKA conspiracy.

Too bad when they -- the infamous THEY! -- were clearing the field, the missed out on misfits like Robert Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson.

[Celerity]

23. they could do it

[Sympthsical]

25. You're the best

Please don't give them ideas, lol. One day, my car will be gone. And I will immediately intuit it was one of them.

[Celerity]

29. they will do a runner

[cksmithy]

31. I love those cat videos. One of my family's cats

back in the 1960's (when I was a teenager) could open doors by jumping up, grabbing the round doorknob, (not a lever door handle) and giving it a body twist open any room in the house and enter the room. If he was outside, and we didn't hear him jumping on the locked door, he would jump on the window screens, until he got our attention.

Also, I love Joe Biden and will vote for him.

[Demsrule86]

36. My cat knocked her treats down and ripped them open...ate all of them and

threw up all day! Now I keep them in a bin with a tight-fitting lid...she knocks them over but can't get them open yet.

[Recycle_Guru]

8. its just good to point out the fucking obvious

to those who seem to be overly CONCERNED

[Sympthsical]

9. I remember the last time "Thank you for your concern!" was a thing

I recall it not going well.

But if we're going to start that up again, ok.

[W_HAMILTON]

13. And I remember the last time people shit on Biden and discounted him.

It went pretty well for him and us both in 2020 and 2022.

But thank you for your concern!

[Sympthsical]

15. We lost the popular vote in 2022

People seem to have not noticed that.

And that was after Dobbs.

Hey, if you're crazy confident, then it doesn't matter what I think. Don't worry about it. You don't need me. People should live their best lives.

[Recycle_Guru]

18. midterms behave differently than presidential years. check out this Pew research data

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/republican-gains-in-2022-midterms-driven-mostly-by-turnout-advantage/

President's party experienced significant voter drop off in both 2018 and 2022.

Dobbs defision gery likely helped Dems to hang on to senate and minimize GOP gains in house.


Per consensus of pre-election polls, 2022 was to be a w red wave--it wasn't.

That plus other special elections bode well for Dems in 24

[Celerity]

21. Yes, for the 2022 US House national number, we lost by 3+ million, nearly 6 million w/o California

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

Popular vote

Rethugs 54,506,136

Dems 51,477,313


Rethugs +3,028,823

Remove CA (capped by the Electoral College in terms of impact for POTUS)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_California

Popular vote

Dems 6,743,737

Rethugs 3,859,666

Dems +2,884,071

and we were outvoted by almost 6 million nationally.

[Sympthsical]

24. After Dobbs

That's what bothers me.

[Celerity]

27. One of the jokers in the pack that would likely not help us at all would be a Dem-led TikTok ban.

So hope we leave that one alone.

It would be like tossing a Swan Vesta on a fair-sized chunk of the 40yo (and especially the 30yo and unders) and under vote and daring it to not burn away.

[W_HAMILTON]

22. We lost the popular vote because Republicans ran unchallenged in dozens of contests.

Whereas Democrats ran unchallenged in only a small handful.

Why do you continue to peddle stale, anti-Democratic talking points that have been debunked over and over by this point?

The only thing preventing us from maintaining control of both the House and Senate in a new president's first midterm -- which would have been damn near unprecedented -- was ourselves (see: New York redistricting).

[Kingofalldems]

28. Great question.

[usonian]

3. The accurate polls are like football playbooks.

They are not advertised.

[Lovie777]

4. Well what is it?............................

this or that with polling. They are everywhere with the exception of shithole with most of the polls. The polls that are positive for Biden seems to get bury, but a few pops up.

Anyways overall polls suck.

[Wednesdays]

6. IMHO, Kennedy is quite welcome to run

as a Republican.

[Kingofalldems]

16. Internet trolls seem to be triggered by this.

Kick and rec.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

19. This makes me smile

[ananda]

20. That's so great! He's the best.

!!!

[hurl]

26. As an old guy

I totally get the age concerns, but they don't bug me at all... Should something happen to Biden (of course I hope it does not), we could end up in the very capable hands of President Harris, who not only is supremely capable but gives us the extra bonus of seeing GOP heads explode like never before.

[OAITW r.2.0]

30. 2024 - Biden/Harris - Steady as we go!

2028 - Harris and ??....that's the next real contest for Democrats.

[Elessar Zappa]

35. I'd like Newsom or Harris in 2028.

[Sky Jewels]

32. It's one thing to grouse about the incumbent and air your negativity a year out.

But when it comes down to Biden versus any Republican, especially Donnie Dipshit, Democrats will realize what is at stake and come home and come out to vote in droves.

[republianmushroom]

33. I like it