A rumination about the Manhattan Project

[lastlib]

Yesterday, July 16, was the anniversary of the first test of an atomic bomb in the New Mexico desert, and I got to thinking about it. Suppose the atomic bomb had been readied before Germany had surrendered, even before FDR died in April. Would the U.S. have used it on the Nazis as readily as we did against Japan? What might the target have been? It seems that most of the major cities had been bombed to the nth degree; what was left to hit with it? (Hiroshima was chosen as a target, because it had sustained very little bomb damage up to the point that the A-bomb was dropped.) Would FDR have been as willing to use it as Truman was? He was likely more familiar with it than Truman was, and knew more about its supposed power.

Just ruminating......

[orthoclad]

1. Gregory Benford wrote "The Berlin Project"

as an alternate history where the allies drop the A-bomb on Berlin.

Benford, a scientist/sf writer whose views I don't especially like, chooses a plot where the Bomb was developed sooner rather than later. The Nazis were the original target; after all, the Einstein letter to FDR was in fear of German physicists developing the Bomb first. Germany surrendered before the US Bomb was ready.

It's a thoughtful examination of the question whether the US would have bombed a European city. Benford thinks the US would have. Hitler was the greater threat.

A review:
https://locusmag.com/2017/06/paul-di-filippo-reviews-gregory-benford/

Thus, in his novel that focuses on the birth of the atomic bomb, circa 1938-44, Benford nominates for his lead one Karl Cohen, a scientist who does not even rate his own Wikipedia page, but who can be found in a subsection of the page of his boss, physicist Harold Urey. Cohen is pivotal because he had a scheme for faster production of the core components of the bomb, a path that was not followed in our timeline. By altering history to favor Cohen’s ideas, Benford leads us to his Jonbar Hinge: in 1944 (and at about the three-fifths mark of the novel), Little Boy, the first A-bomb, is dropped on Berlin.

[carpetbagger]

2. Dresden.

If we had the A-bomb in February, we would have possibly used it in Dresden instead of the conventional bombing raid we did. I say possibly, because the military scenario was different, our main concerns were whether our offensives would stall vs. an alternative (although equally inaccurate) analogy, which would have been a decision to bomb a few German cities prior to D-Day

[SledDriver]

3. Dresden was my 1st thought as well

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

4. If I remember correctly

The project was started with Germany in mind, but as it progressed it became apparent that the timeline needed to develop it was likely going to go beyond the collapse of Nazi Germany. By mid to late 1943 it became obvious Germany was going to lose. The loss of the Afrika Korps, the Battle of Kursk, and the Invasion of Italy all occured that year.

Like you said, by the point that we had it, Germany had been bombed extensively. There wasn't much left in terms of untouched cities with strategic importance.

Had we had a few bombs in 1942-early 1943, I could see them dropping one or two on a western city, like Dusseldorf or Hamburg. One of the issues would have been at that German air defenses would have to be dealt with. The US would be hesitant to risk a bombing run further into Germany for fear that the bomber carrying the bomb would be shot down and the Nazi's recovering the bomb and reverse engineering it. Japan, on the other hand, did not have very effective air defenses.

[captain queeg]

5. I remember Goering told his interrogators that they'd never have dropped bomb on Germany

I think he was probably correct at the time he said it. But if things have developed differently I’m sure it would have been used. Part of his reasoning was that America was largely white and European decent. Japan was isolated and we’d spent years painting their whole race in a bad light. But also there were large allied armies in Europe. I don’t know how much they appreciated the ongoing damage from fallout back then but there was no doubt at least some concern.

[carpetbagger]

9. Goering had issues and their army lost.

The equivalent would be that Japan is defeated, Germany remains but has built a defensive line that would take by War Department estimates a year and 500k Western Allied casualties to breach.

Kaboom.

[BannonsLiver]

6. Well you're in luck

This years edition of the Great DU A-Bomb Debate is about a month away.

[ProfessorGAC]

7. I Believe They Would Have

Hamburg (the port, although it was already in shambles), Munich (Bavaria was the home of nazism), or Berlin itself would be my guess for "A List" targets.
I can't be convinced that the reason it was only used on Japan was racial.
The bomb was intended to drop one on Germany before they had one to drop on London or Paris. Obviously, they were defeated before the bomb was ready, so it became moot.
So yes, I am as certain as speculation can be that they would have used them on Germany.

[Silent Type]

8. Personally, would prefer we hadn't used it, but will wait til Augment for debate.