What We Can Learn From Falling Crime
The pandemic caused a lot of crime. But police reform can play a part in reducing it as well.
BY RYAN COOPER JULY 10, 2023
Serious crime is dropping across most of the United States. Homicides are down by an estimated 12 percent in the first half of 2023; as Jeff Asher writes at The Atlantic, if the trend holds up it would put the country about where it was before the pandemic, and make for one of the largest percentage drops in American history. In New York City, shootings are down by one-quarter.
Violent crime is a complex phenomenon influenced by many factors. But none of the case studies of plummeting crime rates indicate that throwing ever more money at police departments was the key to the new trend. In fact, the evidence reinforces the need to reform corrupt departments, to address the ongoing crisis of trust in so many cities.
Four stories are illustrative. The first and likely most representative is in Philadelphia, where as Ellie Rushing reports, shootings are down by about 20 percent and homicides down about 18 percent relative to last year (though still quite a bit higher than before COVID-19). That is despite the fact that, like most American cities, little has changed with respect to Philly crime policy. The district attorney and police chief and mayor are all the same people as last year, and the police department is still plagued with problems. The homicide clearance rate is up, to be fair, but only to 61 percent.
More from Ryan Cooper
https://prospect.org/justice/2023-07-10-learn-from-falling-crime/
( What will Republicans run on, other than how to hate your fellow man? )
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