Science has finally cracked the mystery of why so many people believe in conspiracy theories

[Behind the Aegis]

When it comes to the spread of cockamamie conspiracy theories, Twitter was a maximum viable product long before Elon Musk paid $44 billion for the keys. But as soon as he took the wheel, Musk removed many of the guardrails Twitter had put in place to keep the craziness in check. Anti-vaxxers used an athlete's collapse during a game to revive claims that COVID-19 vaccines kill people. (They don't.) Freelance journalists spun long threads purporting to show that Twitter secretly supported Democrats in 2020. (It didn't.) Musk himself insinuated that the attack on Nancy Pelosi's husband was carried out by a jealous boyfriend. (Nope.) Like a red thread connecting clippings on Twitter's giant whiteboard, conspiratorial ideation spread far and wide.

By some measures more than half of Americans believe at least one tale of a secret cabal influencing events. Some are more plausible than others; a few are even true. But most — from classics like the faked moon landing to new-school stuff like 5G cell towers causing COVID — defy science and logic. And while social-media platforms like Twitter and Meta may help deranged conspiracy theories metastasize, a fundamental question remains: Why does anyone fall for stuff like that?

Social scientists are closing in on some answers. The personality traits known as the "Dark Triad" — that's narcissism, psychopathy, and a tendency to see the world in black-or-white terms — play a part. So do political beliefs, particularly populism and a tolerance for political violence. Cognitive biases, like believing only evidence that confirms what you already think, also make people more vulnerable.

But according to new research, it isn't ignorance that makes people most likely to buy into conspiratorial thinking, or social isolation or mental illness. It's a far more prevalent and pesky personality quirk: overconfidence.

more...

[SunSeeker]

1. "narcissism, psychopathy, and a tendency to see the world in black-or-white terms"

Well that pretty much defines today's Republicans.

[BigmanPigman]

7. Hell, yes!

However, they also fall under the umbrella of "dumber than dirt". Both apply.

[RockRaven]

2. "Overconfidence" is just a particular flavor of" Fucking Stupid" so don't feel like you have to

change the epithet you are using for those people, if that's what you've been using.

[herding cats]

3. I realize it's a preprint, but it's still interesting.

Hopefully most here have never had a person in their life who simply cannot admit they're ever wrong because they know so much more than any average people. Unfortunately, I'm not in that group. Which makes me think there may be some validity to their hypothesis. In my purely antidotal experience a lot of this rings true.

This is definitely food for thought while we await peer review.

Thank you for sharing!

[betsuni]

4. "particularly populism" -- right, left, whatever.

[emulatorloo]

5. Really interesting article. The overconfidence part makes a lot of sense. Thank you.

How many times do we read or hear false things that are said with absolute certainty? The speakers are always convinced of their absolute infallibility.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

6. Huh. I thought it was that most people are idiots.

They never question anything. Not the information they're given. Not the source of that "information". Not why things are like they are.

I have a good friend who is on the same political page as I am, but he NEVER thinks critically about stuff. Makes me crazy. I always question everything, which is very helpful.

It's also highly helpful to read a lot. Which I do. I don't watch much TV, and extremely little news on TV.

At several times in my life, including now, I have not had a TV. And during these various times, I honestly think I'm better informed than when I have a TV.

My current no TV time started in 2008, when I moved to my current location. I was relocating after a divorce. Didn't have the money to purchase a TV. And didn't have the money to pay for cable, which I would have wanted if for nothing else than the better quality of the service. At the time, I honestly thought it would be temporary, that after a while I'd be able to afford a TV, afford cable. Then I discovered streaming. I was able to watch the Republican and Democratic conventions on line, streaming. I've also discovered that any time there is some kind of breaking news, the local TV stations tend to do streaming, and so I can watch whatever is going on on the local channels. Which is usually vastly better, then any of the network coverage.

I cannot imagine I will ever have regular TV again. I do get to watch lots of shows streaming, on line. So, yeah, I'm often years behind what is current. Doesn't matter. There is plenty to see and watch. I have Hulu, Netflix, and Amazon Prime, and those three give me more than I need to watch. Hooray!

[King_Klonopin]

8. "A man, he hears what he wants to hear and he disregards the rest"

The Boxer, Simon and Garfunkel

[BWdem4life]

9. Lie! Lie! Lie!

Lie lie lie lie lie lie lie....

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

10. Stupid, overconfident people are dangerous. And overconfidence in

individuals is attractive to stupid people. I avoid stupid, overconfident people like they have ebola. because just being in proximity to them can cause chaos and serious collateral damage.

Consider the Magat king and his worshipers.

I rest my case.

[eppur_se_muova]

11. Makes sense to me. And "self-help gurus" like Tony Robbins have built an industry out of ...

... making people feel confident in themselves, as if that were something which can be slapped on like a coat of paint, instead of arising out of a healthy AND ACCURATE assessment of one's own abilities. People who are told they aren't successful because of a lack of confidence can be convinced to feign confidence that isn't justified and end up being taken in by their own act.

(largely based on longtime behavior of a relative who has bought into the TR kind of "self-help" for years and is now the worst of Qanon/CT/MAGA types, while loudly denying it)

[Wounded Bear]

14. Yep! Fake it 'til you make it!

[wnylib]

12. There have always been people who

are over confident or just too lazy to get facts and examine them. Decades ago, before Internet and cell phones, the ridiculous rumors that people believed were called "urban legends." Before that, they were called "old wives' tales "

There are people here on DU old enough to remember American Bandstand on TV. It was broadcast from Philadelphia. Teens in the area were regulars on the program. Bouffant hairstyles were popular for women and teen girls then. They backcombed or "teased" their hair to give it height, then smooth combed a thin layer of hair over it and plastered it all in place with hair spray. It took time to do all this so many women and girls left the style in place for days, up to a week before washing their hair and doing it all over again.

One popular regular on American Bandstand (don't remember her name) had long hair but shorter layers around her face that she teased up and sprayed. But she smoothed over the front while leaving the teased up mess visible in the back. There were rumors across the country that she had "critters" living in that "rat's nest" of hair. Some said only lice. Others said insects like roaches or even small rodents like mice.

I can remember kids in my junior high school who believed all of that as absolute truth. Nobody had any source beyond rumor mills. Some of the believers were smart honor students. But it made them feel good to be "in the know" on the latest "news" about a celebrity. There was also a lot of criticism of that hair style trend as being unhealthy for the hair and scalp. Combine that criticism with envy of the girl's popularity and you have the reason why young people believed the stories.

Social media magnify our ability to spread such rumors and believe them as fact. I have known otherwise intelligent people claim that research scientists already have a cure for cancer but withhold it because there is too much money tied up in cancer treatments for the cure to be used. Oncologists and Big Pharma supposedly block the cure from being marketed.

They are reacting emotionally instead of learning facts. They do not understand what cancer is and the various types and potential causes. They believe that there is a one size fits all solution. They fear ever getting it. They feel powerless. So they are open to any story that explains why the problem is not yet solved. They know that some horrific practices in medicine like the Muskeegee case have happened. So that confirms to them that doctors can and do harm patients for their own benefit.

Conspiracy theories come from emotion over reason. Anything that triggers a strong emotion in them is believable when it appeals to envy, fear, a feeling of powerlessness or isolation, anger, etc. Then magnify it on social media and there is an unshakable belief that defies reason.

[panader0]

13. And an (un)healthy pinch of paranoia.

[Behind the Aegis]

17. Bingo!

I just got a message from Nextdoor. One poster was sharing a photo he took of the sky because he thought it was pretty, the responses...

Chem Trails to screw with us and our weatger.

Yeah my daughter who doesn’t go to school yet or really anywhere has a fever and my husband and I have burning sinuses.. that “covid” sinus feeling.. they definitely sprinkled something on us.

Three comments, and only ONE thanked the photographer for sharing the pic.

[lindysalsagal]

15. OMHO, a percentage of the populace is functionally illiterate, and cognitively compromised

i.e. they have trouble following the multiple trains of thought that understanding modern society requires. They cling to simple bumper-sticker cartoon conceptions of the world: me/them. Good/bad. Christian/heathen. And so when they become overwhelmed with the frustration of feeling confused, a strong, simple charismatic leader like tfg offers relief: "Just follow me."

We will always have a gullible 20-25% of us who are easily duped. The rest of us need to answer back so that it doesn't spread.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

16. Research like this is important. . . . nt