U-M study: Electric vehicles will save most drivers money -- but they need to be more affordable.....

[marmar]

U-M study: Electric vehicles will save most drivers money — but they need to be more affordable to buy


(Detroit Metro Times) Retiring U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan faced some backlash last year after she bragged about not worrying about gas prices thanks to her electric car, with critics painting her as out of touch given the high price tag for electric vehicles, or EVs.

But most Americans would see savings in the percentage of their income spent on transportation costs if they switched to EVs, according to a new study from the University of Michigan — though the researchers also say more must be done to make EVs affordable to more households.

The study was published Wednesday in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research Letters.

“Our results confirm the potential for widespread benefits from EV adoption,” said Joshua Newell, an urban geographer at the U-M Center for Sustainable Systems at the School for Environment and Sustainability, in a statement. “However, EV ownership in the U.S. has thus far been dominated by households with higher incomes and education levels, leaving the most vulnerable populations behind. Policy interventions are needed to increase EV accessibility so that all Americans can benefit from the EV transition.”

The university says it’s the first study to examine EV energy costs through the lens of distributive justice, or the fair distribution of benefits and burdens. The researchers calculated transportation energy burdens, or percentage of income spent on charging EV batteries or filling up gas tanks, at the census tract level. They then compared the extent of energy burdens and greenhouse gas emissions for EVs and internal-combustion vehicles in regions across the U.S. .............(more)

https://www.metrotimes.com/news/u-m-study-electric-vehicles-will-save-most-drivers-money-but-they-need-to-be-more-affordable-to-buy-32066367

[Torchlight]

1. I think EVs will follow the pattern of home computers.

First computer I purchased was a Lisa in '84 for just under $2500 (in today's dollars, that's about $6000). Most recent PC I purchased was $250.

But as vehicles are durable goods, my guess is it may take a longer rather than sooner to adjust (though ignoring the Coase conjecture).

[madville]

5. Don't see that happening

Almost all EV manufacturers are still losing money on every one they sell, even at these prices. Doubtful the prices will ever decrease unless there are some major government subsidy programs passed.

State governments are also going to have to start taxing EVs by miles driven in order to maintain roads and such, since those taxes currently are tied to gasoline and diesel sales.

[Buckeyeblue]

7. I agree with you. Car prices rarely come down

I think the question is how many miles can I get on my EV? If they are more durable and I can get several hundred thousand miles, the higher price can be justified. Otherwise, I think there will be a specific demographic that will flock to EVs while others will stay with more affordable gasoline cars.

And maybe for the next 5-10 years that is the best scenario.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. It's coming

Like anything new, it takes some time for mass production to bring the price down.

By definition, EVs should be cheaper, there are less hours that go into manufacturing them, there are fewer moving parts, and they are just generally less complex. But ICE cars have been being built for a century, the manufacturing engineering is advanced on them has led to lower costs.

The key is recycling the batteries, and going to renewables to charge the power grid. A couple points on recycling the batteries, 1) They are very recyclable, over 95% of the materials in them can be reused. But 2) They last so darned long that recycling will take decades to really get going. Battery life on many cars is 18-22 years.

[thatdemguy]

3. Battery life of 18-22 years?

Can you give a link for that info? IIRC from what I have read prius batterys last 6-8 years, there is lots of reports of batteries going bad, or costing an arm and leg to fix/replace. From a quick google search I found 10-20 years, thats a large spread.

As for the batteries getting cheaper, I think they will lower some then get more expensive as the easily accessed minerals dry up and it gets to going after the harder to get stuff. Also I can see some environmental and human safety regulations kicking in on the mining. The cobalt mining is particularly rough and dangerous, there is a lot going around on the problems in the DRC.

I do think recycling will be very important, and needed to make it work.

As for the price of the vehicles, for me it works out that the difference from even a cheaper EV at 50k to what my subaru cost me. If the car makes it past 150-175k it will be cheaper than an EV and everything after that is a savings. That is not even taking the cost of charging the EV in to it.

[madville]

6. 60% of the EV cost is the battery

Don’t see those prices coming down without some new advances in the technology. Manufacturers are currently losing a substantial amount of money on each EV they sell, prices will have to increase just to maintain the status quo at this point, unless we see some huge government subsidies to reduce the final price to the consumer.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. Huh?

Average cost to consumer of a new EV battery is $10-12K. Teslas are a little more. You think batteries cost $40,000 each?

The price will come down with manufacturing advances.

One thing that is driving costs is there are unique frames for EVs as the weight is distributed differently than ICEs. GM or Ford will build several models from the same frame to reduce costs. Not there yet with EVs. EVs are novel right now, that's why they're more expensive, costs will come down and ultimately they'll be cheaper than ICEs as they take less hours to produce and EVs are simply a more robust design than ICE vehicles that have many more moving parts and systems for cooling lubrication, exhaust etc.

[madville]

12. Because they aren't charging the real cost

Manufacturers are losing money on every EV they sell and it’s mostly the battery cost they are eating. That “10-12k” battery May actually cost 20-24k for example.

10-12k for a battery was maybe true years ago, the F150 Lightning extended range battery pack is $36,000, standard is $32k and those probably aren’t the actual costs since Ford says they are losing money on each Lightning they sell.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. Link

Going to have to see a link for that. Everything I've read said it costs the manufacturers around $8K on average for batteries. Trucks and semis would be more of course, but the average is a little over $8K.

[multigraincracker]

4. Car and Driver Mag had an article today.

tested the top 10 EVs and none of them came close to the mileage claims on winter driving.
They need to look at Hemp seed diesel. Years and years ago Henry Ford made a car out of hemp that ran on that fuel.

[blueinredohio]

8. Not only the price is ridiculous

but I live in BFE and where am I going to recharge except home?

[madville]

13. And you may need thousands in home electrical upgrades

In order to make overnight charging at home possible.

[forthemiddle]

10. My Husband drives up to 5,000 miles a month

Because of his job, he can travel up to 5,000 miles every month.
Right now he drives a Hybrid that gets 45 miles an hour on a good day. For him, he would LOVE an electric vehicle, but unless he can get one that he could charge, effectively, up to 500 miles he couldn’t depend on it.
Most of the plants he visits are not in urban areas, so the reliability of chargers must also be increased greatly. Plus we are in the upper Midwest, so weather/snow drivability is also a consideration.

[fightforfreedom]

11. A lot of people will not buy them if there in no place for them to charge them.

A lot of people live in Apt complexes, condos, townhouses, trailerparks, etc. No place to charge them. It is amazing they have not put in place the charging infrastructure. You have to do that first before you can sell the cars. DUH!

[Takket]

15. Michigan has a pilot program for a "charging road"

Basically it charges your battery when you drive on it. I have a million questions!!!

How long does the road last?
What is the charging rate?
What happens when it snows?
Cost vs a traditional road?

Don’t know if it is practical. But you are so right about apartments. Government is going to have to subsidize complexes to install chargers. And they will ok all be vulnerable out in the open.