WE CAN WELL AFFORD IT: Just 5% of the US military budget disabled 50% of Russia's military power.

[CousinIT]

Some of the usual suspects are using Zelensky's visit to whine about how expensive aid to Ukraine is, so it's a good opportunity for this CEPA report that notes that for just 5% of the US military budget, we've disabled 50% of Russia's military power.

Link to tweet

It’s Costing Peanuts for the US to Defeat Russia

https://cepa.org/article/its-costing-peanuts-for-the-us-to-defeat-russia/

b]The cost-benefit analysis of US support for Ukraine is incontrovertible. It’s producing wins at almost every level.

Altogether, the Biden administration received Congressional approval for $40bn in aid for Ukraine for 2022 and has requested an additional $37.7bn for 2022. More than half of this aid has been earmarked for defense. 

These sums pale into insignificance when set against a total US defense budget of $715bn for 2022. The assistance represents 5.6% of total US defense spending. . .

The Ukrainian armed forces have already killed or wounded upwards of 100,000 Russian troops, half its original fighting force; there have been almost 8,000 confirmed losses of armored vehicles including thousands of tanks, thousands of APCs, artillery pieces, hundreds of fixed and rotary wing aircraft, and numerous naval vessels. US spending of 5.6% of its defense budget to destroy nearly half of Russia’s conventional military capability seems like an absolutely incredible investment. If we divide out the US defense budget to the threats it faces, Russia would perhaps be of the order of $100bn-150bn in spend-to-threat. So spending just $40bn a year, erodes a threat value of $100-150bn, a two-to-three time return.  Actually the return is likely to be multiples of this given that defense spending, and threat are annual recurring events.

The US military might reasonably wish Russia to continue deploying military forces for Ukraine to destroy. 

Meanwhile, replacing destroyed kit, and keeping up with the new arms race that it has now triggered with the West will surely end up bankrupting the Russian economy; especially an economy subject to aggressive Western sanctions. How can Russia possibly hope to win an arms race when the combined GDP of the West is $40 trillion, and its defense spending amounting to 2% of GDP totals well in excess of $1 trillion when the disproportionate US defense contribution is considered? Russia’s total GDP is only $1.8 trillion. Vladimir Putin will have to divert spending from consumption to defense, risking social and political unrest over the medium term, and a real and soon-to-be present danger to his regime.

[Irish_Dem]

1. For a small US expenditure we have strengthened democracies around the world.

China certainly is going to delay its invasion of Taiwan.

NATO is much stronger.

Russia is much weaker.

Ukraine has done all the heavy lifting, undergoing a blood bath and destruction of their country.

The US owes Ukraine a great deal.
We should be thanking them.

[SheltieLover]

9. Absolutely!

[Magoo48]

2. And, who is paying the blood and suffering price for this surrogate war

between two empirical swinging dicks? It’s the poor and working people of Ukraine, Russia, and the US.

Perhaps a Christmas truce would be a good place begin the peace process.

[nycbos]

3. Russia has said Ukraine must recognize the parts of Ukraine

that they illegally annex as part of Russia. So why would Ukraine agree to that. And why SHOULD they.

War is horrible. Dwight Eisenhower one said "I hate war as only a soldier who fought in it can." I believe we have wasted too much blood and treasure in the Middle East.

But sometimes war is unfortunately necessary. You can't stop an evil like Hitler or Putin without it. At some point you are Neville Chamberlain saying "peace in our time."

[inthewind21]

6. Yeah who

I mean we shouldn't be chipping in a minuscule amount of $$ to back up democracy for our fellow man. We need to be giving more tax breaks to corporations!

Let me know when Vlad calls you to agree to a Christmas truce!

[Magoo48]

12. Nobody in power is proposing a truce, so how would we know if it were viable?

[Bev54]

7. So what you think Russia should benefit for their unjust invasion of a

sovereign country? It is not up to anyone but Ukraine to decide, they are the ones suffering from this war. In case you haven't heard, the US is not the only country providing funds and equipment for the fight for democracy. The fact that people do not want to help those that need it never ceases to amaze me. America first is not our motto.

[Magoo48]

11. You assume a lot with the usual result. I did not say Russians should benefit. I have heard that

other countries are supporting Ukraine, many under pressure from the US and others. I am very much in support of those in need. How is providing weapons and other killing machines to extend the war they are dying in “support”? I have never in my life thought America First or supported our empire building.

Still, who suffers most in this and other wars, the poor and working class who have no say.

Finally, at 74, I’ve never supported killing unless I was personally willing and able to join in.

[Act_of_Reparation]

13. Do you know of some other means of expelling an invading army from your borders?

I'm open to suggestions.

[Magoo48]

18. Yes, I propose defending yourself and fighting equally as hard for peace as you do in self defense.

I propose asking your so called supporters to fight for peace as hard, and with equal financing, as they struggle to give you weapons making their arms corporations richer. Arms costing billions and which are supplied by American people without referendum.

War is a Racket. Smedley was right.

[Bev54]

20. You do understand that Russia does not abide by its own agreements and they

want to wipe the Ukrainians off the face of the earth? This is a genocide and you can not negotiate with terrorists that are hell bent on killing everyone of you. If you do not stop them, they will come at them again. Ideally we would all love to be able negotiate this to end but realists know that is not going to happen. There is only one way as long as Putin is alive.

[Act_of_Reparation]

21. How exactly does one "fight for peace" in this circumstance?

[EX500rider]

17. "How is providing weapons and other killing machines to extend the war they are dying in "support"

If they did not have enough weapons to keep the Russians at bay, Russia would conquer the whole country with slaughters of civilians in each new town & village they took, I guarantee you that would result in more dead Ukrainians esp civilians then the way it it going now with the Russians slowly being pushed back.

"Our empire building"?
Like what exactly? The last "empire building" the US did was 124 years ago during the Spanish American War.

[LiberalFighter]

39. And give Putin time to recuperate? No!

[anamnua]

47. What's the weather like in Moscow? NT

[Magoo48]

48. Peace and good health to you as well.

[nycbos]

4. Sounds like a pretty good return on investment to me.

[Wounded Bear]

5. And no American service member casualties...

Some American individuals have gone over and been killed and wounded, but no US military involved directly.

[Magoo48]

14. So it's all good if Americans aren't dying?

Look, we can fight with the Russian madman and only Ukrainians and poor Russians die. What a fucking deal.

I’ve never supported killing I wasn’t willing to participate in. It’s off somehow.

[Wounded Bear]

16. Nice implication on my poor character. Never said that...

It is better than no Americans died, sure. I'd prefer that no Ukrainians or Russians died too.

But Putin is attempting to conquer a neighboring country. Our choice is to let him do it or fight back, or at least help the Ukrainians fight back.

[Magoo48]

19. No offense intended to your character.

I would feel better if we were fighting as hard for peace as we were to spend billions to further fatten MIC. War is a Racket.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

25. Waiting for details on your plan for "fighting as hard for peace".

[Magoo48]

26. Every dollar spent on killing machines for Ukraine is matched funding humanitarian efforts

and also matched again creating ongoing, neutrally moderated, peace talks in the region beginning with whomever will participate (hosted by the USA) and continuing daily until major players show up and peace is achieved.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

27. Got a list of 60 Senators to vote for that?

[Magoo48]

28. Of course not. You requested my plan, that's it.

I come from a time when the left opposed war. I’m recovering from my surprise and shock beginning last February when I finally swallowed that today’s left, to a large extent, is very hawkish. Drones killing civilians is ok, surrogate war is ok. Banging the war drums is ok. Supporting Saudi Arabia war on Yemen with arms sales is ok. Cheering on war in Ukraine like it’s some kind of sporting event is ok….

Just speaking up for the few remaining peacenicks.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

31. A plan that ignores reality is no plan. Ukraine needs our support -- whatever we can give.

Peace with Putin is the same as peace with Hitler; either he is defeated or he continues to wage war.

Don't bring Saudi Arabia and Yemen into the effort to support Ukraine.

[Magoo48]

33. How real is a military solution in Ukraine?

Peace is always a real solution, but it must be wanted.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

36. A Ukr. military victory over Russia

will lead to peace.
Bottom line is that Putin wants peace on HIS OWN TERMS only, unless he gets what he wants, he will continue his wanton killing of civilians and ruination of Ukr's infrastructure.

What makes you think that we aren't already providing humanitarian aid, along with our allies, to the Ukr. people?

The new aid package to Ukr. has humanitarian aid, economic aid along with military aid in it.

Putin is the new Hitler, and we all know what happened the last time the world didn't confront Hitler while there was still time to do so.

I am a combat vet, I've been there, done that and I fully support Pres. Biden and NATO for fully supporting the Ukr's bid to throw out Putin's forces who illegally invaded Ukr.

You don't reward a tyrant by giving them what they want, end of story.

[Magoo48]

37. And, why will military intervention turn out different than our last few military solutions?

[MarineCombatEngineer]

38. Because the Ukrainian's are fighting on their own land against an invading country,

unlike our SE Asia games, Iraq, Afghanistan, that's what you fail to recognize.

The Ukr. Army has a vested interest in throwing out a brutal dictator's forces from their lands, and with the US and it's allies aid, are doing a pretty damned good job at it while at the same time, severely weaking the Russian conventional forces.
That, my friend, is well worth the aid to Ukr.

Again, you don't reward a tyrant with a peace deal that benefits that tyrant, that only leads to further aggression, as witnessed in WWII.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

41. Appeaseniks the opposite of peaceniks.

Those who fail to stand against evil are on the wrong side of the moral universe. And are anti-peace.

Liberals have always known this basic truth.

[Magoo48]

42. HorseshitX2

[Just A Box Of Rain]

43. Nope.

Appeasing evil is an anti-peace position of the worst kind.

[EX500rider]

45. Cheering on the Ukraine's valiant defense of their country

It's hardly warmongering

[Buckeyeblue]

29. Peace isn't possible with Putin

I would prefer no war and no killing. But Putin started this. Ukraine made the decision to defend itself. We made the decision to help Ukraine do so. Force was the only way to do that.

And it sucks.

[Magoo48]

32. Peace is always possible, unfortunately, it isn't always wanted. See: arms manufacturers/MIC.

Politicians who believe military solutions will work, Mad dictators like Putin.

[Buckeyeblue]

34. How would deal with Putin in a peaceful way?

[Magoo48]

35. Our leaders could begin by talking as much about peace as Patriot missiles.

[Crunchy Frog]

44. What I'm curious about is, how would you have handled WWII?

[EX500rider]

46. Apparently if you just talk peace enough with Hitler everything would be fine

🙄

[getagrip_already]

8. point of order.... that 100k number is KIA, not wounded/deserted/MIA

If you consider just a 2:1 ratio of permanently injured to killed, russia has lost 300k fighters.

That is about what they entered ukraine with last year.

Additionally, those were mostly fighters, not support personnel.

Entire divisions were rendered inactive. Maybe even whole armies.

This is a huge blow to russia's fighting ability, especially when you add all the equipment it has lost and cannot replace.

Sure, they literally have tens of millions of (untrained) fighting age men they can draw on, but they can't give them warm uniforms/boots, small arms, body armor, night vision equipment, etc. Even food and water are proving elusive.

This is not a good place for them to be. They are still dangerous, but they have paid an insane price. Any attacks going forward will be human wave assaults, trying to prove they have more bodies than ukraine has bullets. It will cost ukraine dearly, and might even have limited success, but the cost will be immense.

[mn9driver]

10. The aid is important, but the people of Ukraine are more important.

After watching our misadventures in Vietnam and Afghanistan, it is pretty obvious that military aid by itself can be a black hole if given to the wrong “government”.

That is a lesson we need to be very careful not to repeat.

[Hortensis]

15. Okay. This would be our ANNUAL defense budget for 2022,

presuming the analysis is accurate enough. As President Zelensky pointed out, a necessary investment, and well invested.

Zelensky was also able to return from the U.S. claiming "good results," which is no doubt worth a lot in itself.

Yet from numerous perspectives, when viewed from a bang-per-buck perspective, US and Western support for Ukraine is an incredibly cost-effective investment. 

Altogether, the Biden administration received Congressional approval for $40bn in aid for Ukraine for 2022 and has requested an additional $37.7bn for 2022. More than half of this aid has been earmarked for defense. 

These sums pale into insignificance when set against a total US defense budget of $715bn for 2022.

[WarGamer]

22. Don't mean to split hairs...

But it's hardly 50% of the Russian military.

First, I'd say that 90% of their military is their nuclear force including missiles, warheads, long range bombers and submarines.

Second, I don't believe the UKR estimates of losses. Some are ludicrous. Like more tanks lost than in all of 1945 as the Russians rolled up the Germans through Eastern and Central Europe including the greatest tank battle in history, Kursk.

Third, The Russians have never intended to be in an "arms race". They have nukes. The most on the planet.

[EX500rider]

24. No but I'd say it is close to 50%...

..of their combat ready Army brigades.
Or actually battalion task groups that they use.
They've been chewed up and spit out, with huge losses in experience, weapons systems and officers.

[C0RI0LANUS]

23. A Bargain for One, A Catastrophe for the Other

After the Russian interference in the 2016 US election was exposed, I seem to recall President Obama publicly stating that the "United States will respond at a time and place of our choosing." This 21st Century Lend-Lease Program to the Ukraine seems to be that time and place of choosing.

Moreover, if the allegations of Russian bounties on US personnel in Afghanistan were true, or if the Russians were confirmed to be behind the strange health attacks on CIA and DOS personnel, US aid to the Ukraine is a "pile on" moment for the USG.

This 5.6% cost of the USDOD budget to erode 50% of Russian combat capability and retaliate against Putin's historic mischief and mayhem is a bargain for the USG. Sadly, the foot soldiers and civilians are paying the heaviest price. The sooner hostilities end, the better off the Universe will be.

[Buckeyeblue]

30. Wasn't the entire goal of the nuclear arms race to bankrupt the USSR?

And over time it worked. But Russians economic problems have remained the same. There is oil. But it's expensive to get to. I'm not sure what other major resources or industry they have that they can sell to the rest of the world.

I think Putin thought the US would be all talk about defending Ukraine. The fact that we've decimated the Russian army, and imposed sanctions that have reduced Russia's ability to make money, has really put his back against the wall.

The next few months will be key.

[Wounded Bear]

40. Afghanistan in the 80's is what bankrupted the USSR...

and that was all conventional forces. Nukes don't "bankrupt" countries because they are basically one and done. Launch those and concerns about the economy are kind of meaningless.

Conventional forces, though, get expended in war and need to be replaced and enlarged once the shooting starts or the war is gonna be short. It killed the USSR in the 80's and it's about to kill Russia now. You're right about their resources and to add insult to injury, the shortages triggered by the Ukraine War have generated another huge wave of transition away from fossil fuels, which means even if the war ends today Russia's oil reserves will be worth less than when they started.