Will Sinema running as an Independent in 2024 help or hurt the Democrat?

[ColinC]

40 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	It will help the Democrat by taking more votes from the Republican candidate than the Democratic candidate.
	6 (15%)
	It will hurt the Democrat by taking more votes from the Democratic candidate than the Republican candidate.
	28 (70%)
	Somethine else (state below)
	6 (15%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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[Amishman]

1. I would say impossible to guess at this point

All depends on who else is on the ballot and how Sinema handles the next two years.

Strange thing is I think the more closely she maintains ties to our party in the interim, the more the split might hurt us in 2024. Being toxic to our interests would help her with the Pubs (syphoning more votes from them), and hurt her standing with our supporters.

[ColinC]

2. Fair point.

[Polybius]

3. Sinema votes with Biden over 90% of the time and is caucusing with the Democrats

We're fooling ourselves if we think that she'll take more votes away from them than us.

[ColinC]

5. That could be a point made, but voters seem to feel differently

The vast majority of Democrats see her as a spoiler to historic democratic legislation and want her gone. Whereas more republicans see her favorably for hindering key Democratic legislation.

[Polybius]

7. But would they vote for her?

I guess time will tell.

[ColinC]

9. I expect Rs to nominate Kari Lake or somebody similar

Outside of that possibility, I might be less optimistic.

[Celerity]

30. Ducey is my guess, which makes it even harder for us, as he is not a crazed MAGAt

[qazplm135]

59. Well a sane Republican

Would be harder regardless of Sinema.

But I'd argue a sane Republican reduces Sinema's voting slice even further.

What's her appeal in that scenario?

[Celerity]

61. She has none. She cannot win in 2024, the only thing she can do is fuck us by running as an indy.

We will have a Dem primary and a Dem candidate. We will not just capitulate and not run someone.

Even if we did that (not run a Dem), she will lose to the Rethug. She will never get enough votes to defeat that Rethug.

[Mr.Bill]

66. They should nominate Herschel Walker.

Experienced campaigner.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Independents always hurt the party closest to it.

George Wallace hurt Nixon and John Anderson and Ralph Nader hurt Jimny Carter and Al Gore. John Kelly is a dream candidate and won by five points. It's not as if we have a huge buffer.

[ColinC]

20. I don't think she is closest to Democrats anymore

She established she favors giving historic wins to the GOP by blocking Dem legislation which is probably bigger than confirming judges and voting 90% with Democrats in the eyes of voters -since it gets more attention.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I would argue people vote on social issues, i.e. the culture war.

There is no disputing which side of that war Kyrsten Sinema is on.

[qazplm135]

11. Who among us is going to vote for her

Over an actual Democrat??

The concern would be losing more independents to her than Republicans lose to her, not losing Democrats.

I predict she actually gets few votes. People want to vote for a winner, and she can't win a three-way race.

[Polybius]

14. Not anyone here of course

We're the hard core base of the Party. But she could get 20% in AZ.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Too bad this isn't Facebook or Twitter where you can like a post.

I don't like her showboating and apostasy but I like the seat more.

[qazplm135]

33. Why would 20 percent throw their vote away?

At some point she's going to become nonviable and at that point her numbers will sink like a stone.

Let's pretend I loved her, thought she was the best politician ever.

Once I saw that she is running a distant third I'm not voting for her.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

18. There are more registered Independents ("Other") in AZ than there are Democrats.

[qazplm135]

31. And most of them

Still primarily vote D or R.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

23. The bills that actually make it to the floor for a vote are only part of the story.

[lees1975]

45. She has stated that she is NOT caucusing with either party.

[qazplm135]

76. Only statement I saw was

She was not caucusing with Republicans.

She said she is keeping her Dem subcommittee chairs and that only happens if she's caucusing with Dems.

[grantcart]

4. Sinema will not run for reelection

She will retire to be a lobbyist.

[ColinC]

6. Ooof. This is a very likely possibility

[KarenS]

8. I agree with you!! n/t

[dsc]

12. It will eliminate any chance of us winning the seat

we won the Sec of State race, against a certifiable loon, by only 5, Lake lost by less than 1. Sinema would take more than that.

[jcgoldie]

13. I voted "something else"

I think there are way too many variables at this time to predict the answer. 36% of AZ voters identify as independents. Whoever wins there needs a majority of them. Some in other threads have estimated that many are "right leaning"... they obviously haven't been right leaning far enough in the past two cycles to help Maga candidates win... so a lot probably depends on whether republicans pick another wingnut candidate in their primary. I don't see any reason to assume she would siphon independent votes disproportionately from the democratic candidate.

People also dont seem to be considering that there could be quite a few “right leaning” independents who held there nose and voted maga because they couldnt bring themselves to vote dem… but may go for an independent thus siphoning gop votes as well.

[BlueTsunami2018]

15. She's doing this to fend off a primary she would lose.

And she knows we can’t risk a fascist taking the seat by going after her in the general. It’s diabolical but smart.

[Earl_from_PA]

16. It's way too early to know.

Six weeks is a lifetime in politics. Let alone 23 months. Too much can, and will happen between now and Nov 2024.

[LAS14]

19. The Democrats should not oppose Sinema. nt

[Celerity]

29. Of course we should, she doesn't get a free pass. If multiple vulnerable (vulnerable to a primary

challenge) Dems start doing what Sinema is doing (IF she runs for re-election) and simply declare themselves indies, and dare us to oppose them, we are fucked. I can see some of the No Labels/Problem Solvers types trying this. Or, on the other end of the spectrum, a DSA type like Bush or Tlaib, if they think that a more moderate type Dem challenger is too strong for their liking.

It is blackmail via political suicide bomber threat. It is a way of blowing up the entire primary system of accountability.

She cannot be allowed to hijack the process and try and usurp the seat IF that is her plan.

Bernie runs in the Dem primaries to avoid this type of very thing.

[LAS14]

32. We've muddled along OK with Angus King and Bernie Sanders. nt

[Celerity]

39. Neither of them have blocked Biden agenda legislation, Sinema has. She is NOT 'muddling along'.

[GoodRaisin]

57. A republican would block even more Biden agenda and maybe cost us the majority.

If we run a democrat and the democrat and Sinema cancel each other out and we end up with a republican? I don’t like her either but don’t want to lose the majority.

[Celerity]

64. Sinema cannot win as an indie, and she cannot win the Dem primary. She is gone either way. She needs

to stand down and retire at the end of her term, or try and run in the Dem primary and accept the results.

She is trying to play political suicide bomber blackmail to avoid a primary loss. That destroys accountability that comes from a Dem primary. It sets a horrid example that others may well try to duplicate.

[qazplm135]

34. That's fear talking

And it's what she's hoping for.

[Fiendish Thingy]

22. It will help end her senate career, which is a good thing

Whether it will help or hurt the Dem nominee remains to be seen.

But it will certainly spell the end of her reign of chaos and obstruction.

[GreenWave]

24. Way too soon to tell. Screw this fierce urgency of now.

A lot can happen in the next 18 months. Jack Smith to investigate Arizona for attempted fake electors. Leave no stones unturned I say.

[48656c6c6f20]

25. It won't matter much.

The GOP has decided to take the success of Herschel campaign and run either a werewolf, vampire, or a toaster. Or maybe that bull that wants to jump the fence and impregnate cows for abortions. Not sure.

[FlyingPiggy]

26. I highly doubt AZ dems will ever vote for sinema ever again.

Dems are DONE DONE DONE w her and she knows it. She will McSallied in 2024. If anything, I think this is great mews. I think she will pull the gop indies from the gop. And as in independent, I HIGHLY doubt she will have a chance up against the Democratic nominee. MY burning question is: who will we put up for that senatorial race?

[Just A Box Of Rain]

28. Unfortunately, registered Democrats make up 30.665 of the electorate in AZ.

Simena has an approx. 37% approval rating in Arizona, which tracks only slightly higher than the percentage of Independents.

If she can hold that percentage, she would almost certainly win. The other likelihood is that the Republicans flip the seat.

It is highly unlikely the Democrats can win a three-way race with Sinema making a run.

And trust me, I'm not happy to reach such a conclusion. But, math.

[qazplm135]

35. That's not how elections work

So your math is based on a very simplistic poll of favorability numbers two years out from a three way election

[Just A Box Of Rain]

37. Numbers can go up and numbers can go down.

Nothing I said suggests that Sinema has a "lock" on those votes.

But there are a lot of people in Arizona who are not Democrats. If she draws big numbers from Independants, and draws some votes from Democrats and Republicans, she has a path to victory.

In contrast, with her in the race, it is hard to see a path for Democrats.

[qazplm135]

53. Except there is no reason to believe she will draw big

Numbers from independents.

1. She is underwater with independents just like with Dems and Reps. She's unfavorable to every group.

2. Most independents still vote primarily D or R. Often they are Indy not because they are moderates but because they weren't happy with something their former party was or wasn't doing.

3. The number of true moderates willing to vote third party is truly small.

4. When it becomes clear that she's only going to be a spoiler candidate and can't win, people will readjust to vote for one party or the other or stay home rather than vote for her just to be a spoiler unless they already weren't going to vote for one of the other candidates anyways. There are going to be precious few voters that would vote for Gallego if Sinema wasn't running. Probably same for say Kari Lake if she runs for example.

If she had a positive rating among independents or at some point is able to manufacture one between now and election time then maybe I'll reassess my thoughts.

But as it stands now, she is going to be looked at as Democrat lite. She will still caucus with us and she will still vote for our judges. So folks who want a Dem will just vote for the actual Dem running, and folks that don't will vote for the Rep running.

Her only path to victory is if both the D and R candidates are completely unpalatable and I don't think Gallego will qualify as that for most voters. The Republican they nominate stands a large chance of being someone crazy.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

54. I hope I turn out to be wrong.

However, I think Sinema will draw a lot more support from Independents than you seem to believe. She is a sitting Senator--one who is unpopular in our party (and for good reason)--but for independents in independent-friendly Arizona? I think she draws a lot of votes.

Perhaps not enough to win a three way race to win, but enough to ensure that Democrats lose.

In a 3 way plurality contest, one doesn't need to be "favorable" to win, or to tip the balance of a race.

This will be a presidential election year, I doubt voters stay home.

And if it becomes clear that Sinema would draw enough votes that a Republican looks like the clear winner, then Gallego (or other nominee) could start to be viewed as "the spoiler" and the shift could go her way. People holding their noses out of "pragmatism." I think many people might go for someone who generally votes with Democrats (and who votes for our leaders) over a Republican.

It will be interesting to see what appears to happen to her support among registered independents/others.

[qazplm135]

55. We have the current polling

She's underwater with independents in AZ right now. They don't like her either.

Her only role is as spoiler and her only hope is fear of that causing Dems to literally cancel their own primary, but that's not going to happen.

Dems absolutely hate her so no Gallego is not going to look like a spoiler because at worst he gets the vast majority of Dems and Dem leaning independents just like the Republican will get the vast majority of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.

She will get what's left, which won't be much.

Can she spoil a close race? Sure. That's the best she can do though.

I expect initial polling might give her an apex of 15-20 percent but at some point if people see she's going to swing the election to one of the other two candidates but otherwise has no path,.her support will drop.

She's bluffing with pocket sevens. Sure, she could win, but it's unlikely.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

56. Underwater doesn't mean one loses in a 3 way race.

Or that you can't draw enough votes to deny Democrats a win.

We agree, she can spoil a close race. Hard to imagine a Democrat winning with her in the race.

That's her "super-power."

She'd likely be finished otherwise, so her odds just improved (and hate to say it).

[qazplm135]

58. It's not hard to imagine at all

Sure her odds as a Dem we're zero because she'd lose in the primary and you can't run Indy if you lose a primary in AZ so yeah this improves them... from zero.

Any supposition that she will get a large chunk of independents is not yet supported by any evidence.

Underwater means she doesn't start with some great adorations by independents. It means the majority of them don't view her favorably and are more likely to vote their party because again most independents still strongly trend towards one of the two parties.

It's not the 80s anymore where partisanship is muddled and there's truly a large middle that swing votes. Those days are gone.

And if a crazy is on the other side she could as easily draw Republican votes or voters who otherwise wouldn't vote either way or vote Libertarian since they wouldn't want to vote Dem either.

Again, any argument she gets a meaningful percentage or pulls more from Dems is fear based not fact based, at least not yet.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

65. We we both concede her odds have improved, due to this move.

We both understand the biggest risk (and greatest likelihood) is that she tilts the race to the GOP.

Those are some significant points of agreement, and not good news for Democrats.

I guess where we differ is whether she can attract enough support for independent-minded Arizonans to make Democrats nervous enough when polls show a Republican win, that many hold their noses and vote for her.

Hard to know how the dynamics play out at this juncture.

I'd love for there to be a non-factor who draws no support. But that's not what my politcal judgement leads me to conclude in this moment.

[qazplm135]

67. No I don't concede

That's the greatest likelihood, not remotely.

I think the greatest likelihood is she's without a political home or any hope of winning and no one will have any interest in voting for her.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

69. You said she improved her own odds (which you suggest were otherwise zero) right?

And you also suggested the greatest likelihood is that she tilts a 3 way race to the GOP, correct?

These are the point where I said we are in agreement, while stipulating I suspect she will draw more votes that you seem to believe will be the case.

So I'm confused about what "that" you are referring to when you say: That's [not] the greatest likelihood?

[qazplm135]

70. No I didn't say the greatest likelihood

I said she improved her odds from zero. I do the same thing when I buy a lottery ticket.

I said it was the best she can do, which is not the same as saying it's the greatest likelihood.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

71. Again, what is "it" and "that?"

You said the greatest likelihood with Sinema being in a 3 way race was that the election would tip to the Republicans, no?

[qazplm135]

72. Go ahead and quote

Where you specifically think I said that. And why do you keep asking me that when I've bow told you a nauseatingly number of times that I am not saying that?

What more do you need me to say before you understand?

[Just A Box Of Rain]

73. Define "that."

You said: Can she spoil a close race? Sure.

That's my point, entirely.

[qazplm135]

74. Good grief

How you took something being possible and morphed it into greatest likelihood I have no idea but I'm done with this conversation.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

75. You use pronouns w/o providing antecedents and expect people to figure out

what you are objecting to and I'm the one who's causing exasperation here?

Good grief, is right!

[FlyingPiggy]

44. Math also claimed that Hillary would win too. Math also claimed there would be a red tide & that

Never appeared. Clearly math doesn’t always give you the full picture. I see A LOT of resentment towards Sinema from AZ dems. And clearly she does too. But we shall see…

[Just A Box Of Rain]

46. HRC won the popular vote, as predicted. The EC complicates matters.

I have no doubts abouts Sinema's difficulties with AZ Democrats--which is precisely why she made this "chess-move."

This is her best strategy to win re-election. I think it also dooms our odds of having a Democrat win the seat.

Not a happiness-making scenarios as I see it.

[FlyingPiggy]

48. I disagree. I think dems will remember her for exactly who she is.

I may be too optimistic, but I (hope) think this will ultimately be a blessing in disguise. If anything, I think she will splinter the Republican vote. Not ours.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

49. She doesn't really need to splinter Democrats that much. She could win by getting the Independent

vote and picking of a few Republican ones.

I would not count on Sinema splintering the Republican vote and having Democrats pull in huge numbers of independents as a winning strategy.

And I hope to be wrong in that estimation. I really do.

[lees1975]

51. The 37% approval rating doesn't necessarily translate into votes in a general election

especially not as an Independent who is not popular among Democrats at all. If Democrats run a strong candidate like Rueben Gallego or Greg Stanton, or someone like Regina Romero, who is considered the potential Democratic successor to Raul Grijalva, that 37% is not likely to hold. There's always the chance, especially in Arizona, that Republicans will run another extremist lunatic like Blake Masters, and make it an easy choice.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

52. It will prove to be interesting.

There is nothing I'd like to see more than having a solid Democrat elected to that seat.

I felt fairly confident of that prior to Sinema's move. I think a strong challenger whould have given her a beat-down in a Democratic primary.

This 3 way race scenario in a state full of so many independent voters worries me.

We will see.

[Voltaire2]

27. If she runs it will be because it hurts the Democratic

candidate. If instead the analysis is that she hurts the Republican candidate, she will decide to spend ‘more time with her family’.

This is not a big mystery.

[VGNonly]

36. Will there be a push

to primary her?

[Just A Box Of Rain]

38. No, since she has removed herself from the Democratic primary by going independent.

[Cha]

40. I don't know.. it depends on

how the next two years go.

And, I'm not clairvoyant.

[Raine]

41. Hurt IMO nt

[Angleae]

42. Running for what?

Lobbyist or analyst? That's the only thing she'll be doing after this term.

[mike_c]

43. I think it depends entirely on the other candidates...

...and what Sinema does between now and then. I do think she starts with two strikes just for leaving the Senate democrats. I mean, there aren't many Arizona dems who'll be happy with her for that. She will likely pull votes from a republican candidate if the Arizona repubs nominate another clown. I think the reality is that if she runs as an independent she'll absorb more republican votes than democratic if she absorbs any at all. She herself doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell-- she'll be a spoiler for someone and little else. Being an incumbent who switched political affiliation in mid-term is probably the only thing that will get her any attention as an independent.

[lees1975]

47. If Democrats run a strong candidate appealing to their constituents

they will get the seat back.

A publicity stunt like this, days after the Democrats confirm a 51-49 majority in the house, will weaken her ability to draw votes from Arizona's Democrats who are not as moderate as she thinks they are. This is a betrayal of every Democrat who voted for her.

[Dave says]

50. It was a strategic move for her

Even if terrible for Arizona, terrible for America. (But, surely to her, that does not matter.)

If she stayed in the party she risked being primaried out of power (and thus off her grift). If she jumped to the Republican Party she’d be a nobody (in that party) and lose her leverage. By declaring herself “independent” she increases the odds that we don’t offer up a good candidate to run against her and, thereby, risk losing the seat to an out-and-out Republican. Machiavelli simple-Sinema, a right of center moderate, thinks this is the best way to preserve her grift.

[qazplm135]

60. It's a desperate move

She doesn't have any other option left

[Celerity]

62. We will run a Dem against her. Gallego and others are not going to stand down and just allow her to

use a gambit to bypass an almost certain primary defeat.

If we cave into this, then other Dems who are fearful of a primary challenge will do the same thing. That will help destroy accountability within our party and render the primary process a sham.

It is the political equivalent of a person pulling the pin on a grenade and saying they will blow us all up if we dare to challenge their move and hold a Dem primary and run against them.

[lindysalsagal]

63. Her approval ratings are so low. But AZ is on a razors edge

These days. She might be a wash and pull from both?

[Prairie_Seagull]

68. Run poll again in 12 or 18 months it's

early days.