General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsJohnny2X2X
(19,107 posts)Ratings!
The reality is Warnock is outperforming November and Dem GOTV could make this a comfortable win in the end.
Beautiful Disaster
(667 posts)It's too soon to say because a lot of this is early votes and as same-day voting comes in, Warnock's lead in a lot of strong Democratic areas is likely to come down.
So, he might be at 81% in one county right now and pulled in 75% when all votes were counted last November - but it's not an equal comparison because that 81% doesn't necessarily include same-day. It's possible once that's calculated, he comes down to 75%.
Response to Beautiful Disaster (Reply #2)
ColinC This message was self-deleted by its author.
Beautiful Disaster
(667 posts)ColinC
(8,327 posts)Instead it looks like both are mostly hitting a lot of their benchmarks but Warnock is doing slightly better based on the New York Times results. Needle now at Warnock+2.4!!!
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)There's no way Walker can make it up if these counties keep trending this way.
Johnny2X2X
(19,107 posts)Walker had a lead for quite a while after the early going saw Warnock with a lead, and then Warnock retook the lead late as the big counties in person voting came in.
I dont remember Warnock being up almost 12 points with 44% in like right now. I think he had a very small lead with half in in November. But if the numbers from November do show that, dont expect the networks to report it to distract for their headlines.
Beautiful Disaster
(667 posts)I tried to find a similar flash with 47% from November and the closest I found was 38% and Warnock was leading 53.8-44.6, so a bit better.
But that was with 10% fewer out than currently. And who knows what has been counted compared to in November.
Johnny2X2X
(19,107 posts)Or about that. The middle 3rd of the voting is where Walker will gain like is happening now.
Beautiful Disaster
(667 posts)It's probably not an equal cut.
I do think Warnock is the favorite - I just don't think it'll be as large a I had hoped (I was hoping by a margin of four-to-six points). Maybe it will be ... but it feels like it'll be by like two points at the most.
Johnny2X2X
(19,107 posts)That should keep rising as more votes come in. The 23% chance is basically the uncertainty.
Beautiful Disaster
(667 posts)It's sad it's this close.
LeftInTX
(25,515 posts)That's less than 6%
BlueCheeseAgain
(1,654 posts)Comparing the numbers from counties that have finished counting tonight-- the NYT has this near the bottom of the page. So far the numbers are more or less the same-- which is good, considering Warnock finished ahead in November.
brooklynite
(94,703 posts)And the people who are watching know what the results are.
BlueCheeseAgain
(1,654 posts)If you look at the county-by-county, you see the margins of nearly-complete counties at more or less the same as November.
BlueCheeseAgain
(1,654 posts)mvd
(65,180 posts)BlueCheeseAgain
(1,654 posts)Hav
(5,969 posts)I guess that means as more votes came in, the result was better than expected for Warnock.
BlueCheeseAgain
(1,654 posts)On Twitter, he's also saying that Warnock is doing better than baseline on E-Day votes.
WarGamer
(12,463 posts)First you have the lack of a Libertarian candidate and then the reduced turnout...
Very close.