It wasn't the 'red wave' pundits predicted, but what's here is still pretty bad

[DonCoquixote]

https://www.cltampa.com/news/it-wasnt-the-red-wave-pundits-predicted-but-whats-here-is-still-pretty-bad-14539547

I do not mean to diminish joy, but we still have to keep focused and realistic, as this article from Tampa shows. here is a good cut from it.

In any event, Democrats outran the fundamentals and avoided a bloodbath a la 2010 or 1994. Not that they should pop the champagne. They only defeated expectations.

Trump quisling Kevin McCarthy will probably be the next House Speaker, even if he’ll spend two absurdly long years with his balls in the Freedom Caucus’ vice. And Democrats might need a December runoff in Georgia to win the Senate—and if they lose, not only will America suffer the indignity of having to endure Senator Herschel Walker for the next six years, but Mitch McConnell will once again be able to block Biden’s judicial nominees for any or no reason whatsoever.

Just because things could be worse doesn’t mean what’s here is OK.

[JCMach1]

1. Wrong take: they won NOTHING. In fact, only massive gerrymandering

In TX, OH and FL and Trump judicial interference with NY's own reapportionment led to them taking anything beyond a random seat here and there.

On edit: added OH to gerrymander list...

[Wuddles440]

3. You need to add Ohio...

for the gerrymandering trifecta!

[JCMach1]

7. Done... Weird fact-no gerrymander and we WIN SEATS and keep both houses

No way in hell MSM will give you that story.

[former9thward]

12. No.

The Republicans have almost 52% of the House vote. Democrats about 47%,

https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022

[In It to Win It]

17. I've been told it's too early to interpret anything from those numbers

Some think the Dem vote will catch up as they finish counting in the West Coast.

[former9thward]

25. There are not that many votes left.

R are about 5 million ahead. CA Dems have about a million vote margin right now and can expect to add about another million margin to that.

[LenaBaby61]

23. REALLY THIS 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

[bottomofthehill]

9. Close but for NY we have to thank Andrew Cuomo.

They were not federal judges that fucked us in NY they were Cuomo appointed state judges that killed us.

[Initech]

28. They took out Liz Cheney and replaced her with a hard lined MAGA q nutjob.

That's about it.

[emulatorloo]

2. We're all aware of this. I'm taking a couple days off from gloom and doom though.

A lot of positive things have happened. And there are lots of positives coming.

[W_HAMILTON]

4. Give me a break.

If you told pretty much anyone that it would be the Saturday after Election Day and Democrats would:


- Be on pace to regain control of the Senate

- Potentially still be in the race to control the House, where even if we come up short, Republicans will have the smallest of majorities (probably even smaller than what we had these past couple of years)

- Have a net gain in governorships overall and winning all of those crucial races in WI/MI/PA

- Flip several state legislative chambers, whereas the Republicans have failed to flip any so far (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/democrats-make-big-gains-in-state-legislatures-after-beating-expectations.html)


...an INFORMED Democrat absolutely would have taken that outcome. That sort of success is unheard of during a Democratic president's first midterm. You have to go back to pre-Reagan to find similar success, and depending on how the House ultimately ends up, potentially even further back than that.

[Me.]

27. A Win, Is A Win, Is A Win

and I'll happily take it any day...

[DFW]

5. The article's pessimism may be premature

A “what if we lose both Nevada AND Georgia?” is a possible scenario, but not a likely one. McTurtle knows this, and is conspicuously not making any overt plans or statements on what he intends to do as majority leader next year. This would put him in the curious position of acting more pragmatically than the author of this article.

[spooky3]

6. Uh, if Dems win Nevada's senate seat, they will have a 50-49 edge. Even if

the GQP wins Georgia, and I don't think they will FWIW, they cannot get a majority, as Harris will be the 51st vote.

And good luck keeping the new coalition of Repubs together on any bill, Mitch.

[maxsolomon]

8. GQP control of ANY branch of the Fedrul Gubmint is "still pretty bad".

I don't care if it's by 1 vote, GQP control of the House means 2 years of paralysis and bomb-throwing. It always does.

[moonscape]

10. What troubles me is that we had excellent,

qualified candidates vs mostly unqualified whack-jobs and the electorate yes rejected, but not in large enough numbers to feel normal.

It was good news for sure, and I’m heartened by the largely sane concession speeches, lack of violence, and hopeful neutering of tfg. But the extremity on the other side still exists and is disquieting.

[Boomerproud]

11. Thank you for your clear-headed analysis.

We have a lot of work ahead of us to back away from the edge of chaos.

[betsuni]

14. Agree.

[EarlG]

13. I must admit I didn't read the full article, but this is good enough for me:

"Trump quisling Kevin McCarthy will probably be the next House Speaker, even if he’ll spend two absurdly long years with his balls in the Freedom Caucus’ vice."

Democratic leadership did a frankly amazing job holding the party together and producing some big legislation over the last two years. The next two years were always going to be tougher. Even if we get the House with a razor-thin majority, we'd still struggle to get things through both the House and Senate, and the media's big story would be Democratic infighting, which they would attempt to intensify. Why can't the Democrats get anything donnnnnnnne?????

Meanwhile the Republicans would sit on the sidelines throwing rocks, and at the end of it would say, "See? You gave them two more years and they did nothing! Vote for us this time!"

But if the GOP gets the House, they're back in the spotlight. The media will have fantastically juicy story lines to go after. Who will be the next Speaker? Can they hold the party together? Are the extremists running the show? And then of course you have Trump ready to throw his hat into the ring and the whole Trump vs. DeSantis/The World dynamic and a possibly insane GOP presidential primary.

In that scenario, the Democratic Senate (assuming we get it, which looks likely) spends the next two years quietly confirming dozens and dozens of Biden judges, while the Republicans are put on the spot and asked to govern in an ungovernable situation (plus they're crap at governing anyway). All this in the shadow of the presidential race, which is basically starting now.

I think given the results of these recent mid-terms, the public aren't going to put up with a total clownshow in the GOP-led House. Two years of Biden pointing out that he just wants to help the country while these psycho Republicans fight each other and hold stupid investigations might be just what we need to win huge in 2024.

Of course it would be preferable it Democrats take the House. But if they don't, it will be two years of hell for Republicans and I think we can make them pay dearly for it.

[Cha]

18. I like your analysis and attitude..

and I don't like pessimism. Not today.. or any day.

TY

[thucythucy]

24. Just to put a fine point on it:

in 1994, Repubs take the House, President Clinton reelected in 1996.

In 2010, Repubs take the House, President Obama is re-elected in 2012.

And let's not forget the mother of all election upsets: in 1946 the GOP takes the House, President Truman defies every poll and every pundit expectation to be elected in his own right in 1948.

The GOP can be counted on to shit in their own beds, and this GOP more than ever.

I'm still hoping we keep the House though. That would be the best outcome, by far.

[Better Days Ahoy]

16. Nope. Just fucking stop it.

Here we go again with the flaming "yeah, we won but ...." bullshit. Take the win and enjoy it. It was hard-earned. Emphasis on EARNED, goddammit.

I'll pop champagne. It was an historic result, people.

We Dems beat more than expectations.
WE BEAT THE GOP despite raw gerrymandered districts, especially at the state level. And despite these obnoxious naysaying by members of our own Party. On DU of all the gin joints.

Just fucking stop repeating and promoting the wah-wah-wah shit.

Christ on a cracker. Are we posting opinion from Tampa, Florida paper as some sort of non-partisan evidence that Tuesday was not big win in midterm cycling?? Are we that stupid?

[Cha]

19. Thanks for saying that so I don't

have to.

[Better Days Ahoy]

20. You're welcome. JHC, I'm so over it

I've got a few other replies to posts in the past few days where I was as blunt, including with an arrogant blogger/poll aggregator.

[aurora the great]

29. Thank you!

I am so with you in this.

[Better Days Ahoy]

31. Hi aurora. And we won the Senate yesterday.

So there's that, too.

[aurora the great]

34. Yes!

All and all not too shabby!

[Meowmee]

21. Agree

Lest see what happens. R house will be terrible no matter what. It could have been a lot worse but it’s still very bad. Turnouts in this country are always bad even when considered big here. A large idiotic, narcissistic population most of whom don’t vote. A truly bigger dem turnout voting all dem would have stopped loss of house and possibly senate. No one should need to be told to vote against fascism ever but certainly in the circumstances we are in.

[honest.abe]

22. Why is he assuming Walker will win the runoff??

Odds are very high he wont. Plus the fact CCM will probably win in NV so we will have Senate majority either way.

[Ferrets are Cool]

26. BS

[Hekate]

30. Still, you ARE diminishing joy. We deserve one week, nay, even one day to savor the accomplishment

We’re not stupid. We know what is ahead.

[Better Days Ahoy]

32. Thank you. I wrote that and more in post #29

I've had it with this Debbie Downer bullshit

[Better Days Ahoy]

33. WE JUST WON THE SENATE

And we may gain another seat after the Georgia runoff.
Want to find some obscure news story to throw shade on that, too?
Jee. Zus. Christ.
Just stop it. It was an historically great midterm result.

[Tarc]

35. Another looming problem is the 2024 Senate seats that are up

These are the R-held seats

Florida
Indiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska
North Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
Wyoming

What are the best bets at a flip? Florida? Missouri? Ugh.

The Dem party money-handlers may sorely regret not trying harder for NC and WI in 2022.

[Better Days Ahoy]

36. Why not just take this milquetoast post down?

It's a downer from a butthurt Florida source.
Who. Gives. A Shit?