General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNevada is so close
Boy:
As per this estimate, CCM may barely win (or miss it). This is from
Link to tweet
/photo/1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhXsS8_UUAEuryx?format=jpg&name=large
Johnny2X2X
(19,193 posts)Its basically a done deal.
FlyingPiggy
(3,384 posts)🤞🏼🤞🏼🤞🏼
texasfiddler
(1,992 posts)It is close, but I feel tons better than I did 24 hours ago.
JohnSJ
(92,454 posts)will request a recount if they lose
NameAlreadyTaken
(982 posts)- Johnny Carson's audience
texasfiddler
(1,992 posts)LeftInTX
(25,607 posts)Clark and Washoe are not very blue....
Fiendish Thingy
(15,685 posts)Washoe less than Clark, which is very blue.
Not sure where you get your info
LeftInTX
(25,607 posts)It says 52% and 50.3%
Link to tweet
?s=20&t=lxt5R_w1-45f50PyA50IYg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhXsS8_UUAEuryx?format=jpg
Fiendish Thingy
(15,685 posts)If CCM wins, it will be because of Washoe and Clark counties.
Raven123
(4,884 posts)Claustrum
(4,846 posts)which means it kind of underestimate CCM as mail ballots favors democrats. I would say that's the floor for CCM with a lot of room to grow for CCM if she keeps the 2:1 margin that she's been getting.
It will be close, but not as close as the chart number indicates.
LeftInTX
(25,607 posts)I'm not too crazy about Ralston for that reason. He seems to have a mish-mash of stuff....
W_HAMILTON
(7,876 posts)...you might want to just completely ignore all the prognosticators and sit this one out till it's called, because Ralston is the foremost expert on this subject. If you can't bring yourself to trust him, there is no one else you can trust either.
PS - CCM will win. I haven't had a doubt about this since late Election Day (or maybe early the next day) when they reported how many mail-in ballots were left to count vs Laxalt's lead at the time.
LeftInTX
(25,607 posts)People are complaining that the graphic it isn't reflective of mail voters. (I cannot access the site that the graphic comes from because my computer says it isn't safe and won't allow it) I prefer Wasserman because even when Wasserman's wrong, he's transparent.
ETA: Looks like Ralston fixed the link and now it goes to another site. Will check it out....
W_HAMILTON
(7,876 posts)...he's just saying that it's a reasonable analysis and worth looking at.
As you point out, the mail-in votes (that are the predominant ones outstanding) break in favor of the Democrats at a higher clip than the overall vote, which means that the final total should be even more in CCM's favor than this analysis. Again, it's not a prediction he is endorsing, just saying that it's worth looking at.
ColinC
(8,340 posts)honest.abe
(8,685 posts)Whats the concern??
LeftInTX
(25,607 posts)honest.abe
(8,685 posts)Sorry Im missing something.
LeftInTX
(25,607 posts)Laxalt: 468,437-1,642 = 466,778
CCM: 467,575
CCM - Laxalt = 797
CCM and Laxalt's numbers are from the Nevada SOS
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)Thanks for explaining.