Wed Nov 9, 2022, 11:23 AM

exboyfil (17,595 posts)

What is the chance for the Nevada Senate seat?

A lot of vote outstanding but the Repug has the lead. I would love to go into the Georgia runoff at 50 and not 49 (it looks like WI is a loss).

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6 replies	Author	Time	Post
What is the chance for the Nevada Senate seat? (Original post)	exboyfil	Nov 2022	OP
Ralston thinks there might be enough outstanding votes to take the lead.	Claustrum	Nov 2022	#1
I'd say 60% in favor of Dems	angrychair	Nov 2022	#2
I hope so, and since no one is calling it, it appears your assessment is right on	JohnSJ	Nov 2022	#5
Who wouldn't. If we get Nevada, it would take so much pressure off us. I won't say anything	JohnSJ	Nov 2022	#3
We've definitely been losing ground in NV in recent years.	Claustrum	Nov 2022	#6
Ralston seems a bit optimistic.	honest.abe	Nov 2022	#4

Response to exboyfil (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 11:25 AM

Claustrum (4,458 posts)

1. Ralston thinks there might be enough outstanding votes to take the lead.

But everything has to line up well with the right ratio to take the lead. It will be close either way.

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Response to exboyfil (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 11:27 AM

angrychair (7,540 posts)

2. I'd say 60% in favor of Dems

Of the vote outstanding, like Clark County, the vote is favoring Dems 2 to 1. Same with Washoe County (Reno).

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Response to angrychair (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 11:29 AM

JohnSJ (87,255 posts)

5. I hope so, and since no one is calling it, it appears your assessment is right on

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Response to exboyfil (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 11:27 AM

JohnSJ (87,255 posts)

3. Who wouldn't. If we get Nevada, it would take so much pressure off us. I won't say anything

too negative, but I don't think the take over of the Nevada Democratic party by the DSA helped us very much in Nevada.

Nevada should have been an easy one for us with an incumbent, and the Reid machine in place, but I think what happened with the DSA situation, confused a lot of people

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Response to JohnSJ (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 11:29 AM

Claustrum (4,458 posts)

6. We've definitely been losing ground in NV in recent years.

I hope the democratic party there will do some research and find out what the problem is.

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Response to exboyfil (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 11:28 AM

honest.abe (7,167 posts)

4. Ralston seems a bit optimistic.

From twitter (puke)..

Here's the math, folks:
If there are 100K mail ballots left in Clark, which would make sense based on turnout there, and the Dems win by the 2-to-1 margin they have so far, CCM could come back to win.

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