HUGE youth turnout numbers out of Pennsylvania

[FelineOverlord]

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Demovictory9]

1. Good news. Percentage seems wonky

[FelineOverlord]

4. 😊

This was discussed in the replies. 😂

I think he meant 21% of the early voters were young voters.

And it is a 300 or 400% increase from 2018.

Link to tweet

[W_HAMILTON]

2. Good news, muddied by what seems to be a poor explanation on his part.

His clarification of "...in 2018, young Democrats accounted for 60% of the electorate, now it's 81% of the electorate" also doesn't seem to make much sense. There is almost zero chance that young Democrats -- even though maybe it depends on what he is referring to as "young?" -- were 60% of the electorate in 2018 nor 81% of the electorate now.

He should have just left it at the actual numbers (assuming they are correct) since they stand on their own, without his confusing messages trying to explain their importance. 15,000 --> 60,000+ is good enough by itself.

EDIT: I went and looked at the TargetSmart link and it looks like he is SOLELY referring to early voters aged 18-29 as "the electorate." That is not really an appropriate usage, but it helps explain what he is talking about. He is saying that in early voting in 2018 among 18-29 year olds, Democrats were 60.4% of the votes; now, in 2022, that number is now 81.0%.

[Demsrule86]

5. Good news...thanks for posting.

[SharonClark]

3. Whoever Victor Shi is,

we knows he’s really bad at math.
Why post this nonsense.

[FelineOverlord]

7. He's actually an impressive kid

I don’t know about his math skills, but he’s a former WH intern and the youngest Biden delegate.

[W_HAMILTON]

9. It might be best to just edit out his tweet and just post his TargetSmart link.

Maybe note that he is where you got the original TargetSmart information from if you want to reference him that way, but due to his confusing explanation of the data, it may take away from what otherwise does look to be very positive news.

[SlimJimmy]

53. A former WH intern.

Alrighty then.

[Demsrule86]

8. Oh, maybe you would prefer more doom and gloom...Well, I don't post such things but I am

sure you can find one easily enough. I am glad to know that more youngins are voting personally. I understood what he was saying. Stay positive and have a great day.

[PortTack]

25. You go..right there with ya! Go Dems..screw the doom and gloom crew.

[SharonClark]

60. Are you implying I'm in the "doom and gloom"

camp because I rightly stated the tweet author’s math was bad?

Just consider me in the “truth and reality” camp because I don’t judge the accuracy of information based on whether it is good or bad news for “my side”.

I hope the tweeter is right and that young people will vote in such high numbers that the Dems win every race. We’ll see next week.

[W_HAMILTON]

12. Shi's explanation is bad, but the data looks good.

In short...

In 2018, among young Pennsylvania voters (aged 18-29) who voted early, Democrats were 60.4% of the vote.

In 2022, among young Pennsylvania voters (aged 18-29) who voted early, Democrats are 81.0% of the vote.

If anyone is curious, in 2020, among young Pennsylvania voters (aged 18-29) who voted early, Democrats were 70.1% of the vote.

[BumRushDaShow]

19. No one but those with an "excuse" could "vote early" in PA (regular absentee ballot) in 2018

because the law that allowed "no excuse absentee" ballots (which can be mailed in "early" ) didn't exist back then. It wasn't passed until near the end of 2019 and went into effect in 2020.

[W_HAMILTON]

21. The percentages have increased in the Democrats' favor even since 2020.

From 70.1% in 2020 to 81.0% in 2022.

[BumRushDaShow]

33. That is the correct year to use for comparison!

And considering that 2020 was a Presidential election year, that is significant. I will hedge to say that 2020 was the first year using no-excuse mail ballots so people were just getting adjusted to it. Now what you see are those who have settled on using them but we do know that not EVERY Democrat does mail ballots. It seems that it has been about an equal amount of (D)s who do "mail ballots" and voting "in person". For example from 2020 here in Philly (the breakdown of mail vs in person is in the image) -



So there can still be that last minute push to get procrastinators to the polls on election day (although many don't trust the mail and the drop boxes are not always convenient, so they prefer to vote "in person" - one of my sisters is one of those types).

One might note that here in PA, gubernatorial race years tend to have a higher turnout normally but not as much as a Presidential, so if people can even match or exceed 2020, that would be fantastic.

[Deminpenn]

23. Yes, those are the numbers

Dem share of the early absentee ballot 18-29 vote has increased in absolute numbers by about 10 points each cycle. That is good news. My guess is this indicates more college students voting than in previous cycles.

Just keep in mind that no excuse absentee balloting wasn't enacted in PA until after the 2018 midterms.

[progressoid]

32. Yeah, his post is confusing. He tries to explain it but fails.

Link to tweet

[central scrutinizer]

6. Good news. It's unlikely many of these voters were ever polled

Another reason to not put much faith in polls

[Demsrule86]

10. Yup, that is what I think.

[LonePirate]

11. Unless by young he means anyone under 65, young Democrats are not 81% of the electorate

I appreciate the sentiment but this guy is as bad at communicating as he is at math.

[ColinC]

13. Yeah that has me scratching my head

On edit:
A post above explains what he probably meant.
I guess he means Dems were 60% of the 18-29 “electorate” and now Dems are 80%.

[W_HAMILTON]

14. That's correct.

And "the electorate" he is referring to in this case -- again, not a proper use of the word, I would say, it's more like a particular subset of the electorate -- is Pennsylvania early voters aged 18-29.

[ColinC]

16. Yeah

Still the fact that young Dems are voting and young Reps are not, I guess is good

[BumRushDaShow]

15. They CAN'T compare 2018 to now in PA because we didn't have early voting (no-excuse absentee ballot)

"Act-77" with "no-excuse" absentee mail ballots were enacted Oct. 31, 2019 and were first used in the 2020 primary (that was delayed due to COVID) in June 2020.

Otherwise that "early" count for 2018 is from standard absentee ballots (specific reasons and usually applies to college students who are in school out of state, military, people out of town for business/vacation, etc, those in medical facilities or home-bound, ex pats, etc).

If they want to compare "early" submissions (no-excuse absentee ballots), then they should compare to 2020 and even to 2021.

[W_HAMILTON]

18. Their numbers are also up from 2020:

In 2018, among young Pennsylvania voters (aged 18-29) who voted early, Democrats were 60.4% of the vote.

In 2020, among young Pennsylvania voters (aged 18-29) who voted early, Democrats were 70.1% of the vote.

In 2022, among young Pennsylvania voters (aged 18-29) who voted early, Democrats are 81.0% of the vote.

[BumRushDaShow]

24. Oh I know

Someone posted their link in a thread a few days ago and I have the PA one in a tab and refresh it daily -

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?state=PA&view_type=state

I'm just saying you can't say "Z" (2022) is up "WAY MORE" than "X" (2018) because the two didn't have the same constant of what is being dubbed "early voting". You can compare "Z" with "Y" (2020) because both had the same opportunities.

[W_HAMILTON]

35. I've been playing around with the site -- it's very informative! -- and I've seen...

...our early vote share looks to pretty good in a lot of states. Just picking out a handful...

States we are doing better in than previous years:

AZ

GA

IA

MI (looking VERY good)

OH (Democrats actually lead Republicans in early vote, unlike in 2018 and 2022)

PA (already mentioned, we look to be doing REALLY well there so far)

VA (our numbers are up by about 5% from previous years, Republicans are down by about 5%)

WI (our numbers are up from previous elections and Republican numbers are WAY down; Democrats actually currently lead in the early vote, which is something that was not projected by TargetSmart in 2018 or 2020)


States we look to be on par with from previous years:

CO

MN (we are doing the same, Republicans are doing worse than previous elections)

NV (we are doing slightly better in terms of percentage, but in terms of raw votes we are lagging behind 2018 a bit, which could be worrying)

NH (we are doing the same, but Republicans are doing better than in previous elections)

NM

NC

TX (we are doing about the same as in previous years, but Republicans are doing worse than they have been doing in previous years)


States we are doing worse in than previous years:

CA

FL

UT

[BumRushDaShow]

40. Well CA got rid of almost all of their GOP reps

(or tried )

Actually I believe there are 11 GOP reps out of 53 total so I expect with line adjustments (I think CA lost a seat), and some swingy seats, that could be part of the issue...

[Sympthsical]

50. NYT just had an article about D on D action in California

Since there are quite a few races where the two candidates in the general are Democratic thanks to our jungle primary system.

Some of it is super nasty. It's like, "Guys, same party. Chill, lol."

The R I'm really pulling to see go is Michelle Steel in D-45. Both candidates are AAPI, and she chose racist tactics. It's like, whut.

[BumRushDaShow]

57. Well when NY itself redrew the lines

they ended up with a pretty sad result of having Jerry Nadler run against Carolyn Maloney (both previously in their own districts) and Nadler won the primary (and is pretty much guaranteed the seat in the general). But yeah, when you have (D) vs (D) like that, it can be disconcerting.

The ranked-choice system in places like ME, and notably in AK, did allow someone like Mary Peltola (D) to push out Sarah Palin in the AK special election for Don Young's at-large congressional seat. They go for it again (same candidates assuming none withdrew) for the general, to decide who gets the full term, and hopefully Mary can prevail.

[FakeNoose]

29. Exactly right

I think the young, first-time voters are energized and ready to spring. Maybe not so many are using the mailed ballot, but I believe they'll turn out and vote on November 8th - in person. It actually might be a better experience for them to vote in person, if it's their first time voting.

It's a civics lesson and a good look at what it's all about.

[BumRushDaShow]

38. They could probably work the touch screens better than us oldsters

I used Philly's new touchscreen machine ONCE in the 2019 general election when they first rolled those out and was like OH HELL NO! I couldn't even see the damn paper ballot that was printed out when I was done that I couldn't touch, because of the poor lighting at my polling place (and the machine had no back-lighting).

What I didn't realize at the time was that they had passed the no-excuse mail ballots and once that was announced and we could sign up, that was the first thing I did so I could try it for the 2020 primary.

[W_HAMILTON]

17. Good news -- and a great link! -- muddied by the messenger, unfortunately. More good news:

The overall early vote numbers (all age groups) are looking really good in Pennsylvania. Here is the link to that data: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=PA&view_type=state

It shows that just over one million early votes have been cast in Pennsylvania thus far; of that amount, TargetSmart projects 71.5% to have been cast by Democrats. Comparing similar data from 2018 and 2022, the numbers for Democrats were 44.0% (2018) and 63.1% (2020).

Good news, but as always, keep pressing what looks to be our advantage! Vote! Get your friends and family out to vote! Do what you can to GOTV!

[triron]

20. His calculation is very misleading.

[PortTack]

22. It is great news!

I’ve been slammed more than once by the doom and gloom crew for saying the youth vote is turning out

So thx for posting…the youth vote is up in NC as well.

[napi21]

26. I'm soo happy to hear this! I lived in Pa. for 48 years of my life & still have a lot of friends &

relatives there. All that I spoke to are voting for Fetterman. We've all been worried about how many Pubs would vote though. I'm pretty sure most young voters are voting Dem, so I HOPE the Dems will burry the TV DOC!

[reymega life]

27. this looks great FINGERS CROSSED

[Initech]

28. Please PA, do the right thing! Give Dr. Oz and Doug Mastriano the heave ho!

[Demsrule86]

49. I have an op by newsweek which has a marist poll showing we are ahead in Arizona, Georgia,

PA, and Arizona in the Senate and all the governor's races except Georgia...they are predicting we win...and Arizona was very exciting for me.

[FlyingPiggy]

30. Good news! Gives me hope...and hope that AZ youths turn out too!

[Demsrule86]

52. I hope so too!

[relayerbob]

31. Glad to hear it

But math is clearly not his strong suit

[Amishman]

34. Way up vs 2018, way down from 2020. Hard to read

We'll know Tuesday night.

[W_HAMILTON]

37. No, it's up from 2020 as well.

Well, percentage-wise it is.

Of course there are fewer total votes than in 2020, but that is to expected given this is a midterm and not a presidential election. I imagine that pretty much every single voting demographic will see a decline (in terms of raw votes) this year compared to 2020.

[Demsrule86]

54. 2020 was a presidential year...totally different ball game...18 was a big turnout for a midterm...

And we were in the middle of a pandemic in 20 was well.

[aggiesal]

36. 21% increase? Where did this guy learn math? ...

60,000 in 2022 over 15,000 in 2018 is a 400% increase, not 21%.

Am I missing something?

[Demsrule86]

56. The explanation is in the article.

[aggiesal]

59. Wow, what a sloppy way to explain that ...

15,000 youth votes represented 60% of the votes cast at this point in 2018 and
60,000 youth votes represent 81% of the votes case at the same point in 2022.

That means at this point in 2018, 71,429 total ballots were cast, while
in 2022, there have been 74,074 total ballots cast so far.

I don't believe that only 2,645 more votes have been cast so far this year.
So either the total number are too low, or the Youth vote numbers are too high.

[peggysue2]

39. Well, there you go!

The young voters are leaning in and voting for their future and for the security of the country.

Good one on them. We unite our coalition, we win.

Or as one rather famous person said back in the day:

We either hang together or we hang separately.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

41. This guy is terrible at explaining things.

I still have no idea how he's getting his percentages.

According to the US Elections Project, people from 18-25 have returned 54,000 ballots so far, accounting for 5.2% of the total. That's actually not too bad-- nationally, people from 18-29 (note the larger range) account for only 4.4% of the total. So a smaller age range accounts for a larger percentage in PA.

Having said that, the 18-25 return rate so far is only 46.7%, compared with 84.6% of the over-65 crowd. Of course, they could turn in their ballots later. (Full confession: I haven't returned my own ballot yet (not in PA), since there are so many local races to sort through.)

[electric_blue68]

42. Oh, good news!

[BlueCheeseAgain]

43. Hmm. Some other numbers that are a little different.

From the same site where he got his data...

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22age%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=PA&view_type=state

The 18-29 age group is actually a smaller fraction of the early vote now (7.5%) than it was in 2020 (10.9%) with four days to go before the election. Also, early voting turnout overall is down dramatically-- so far it's only 45% of what it was in 2020 at the same point.

[Demsrule86]

45. What are you talking about...if you compare the 18 to the 22...the youth vote is up for

a midterm which is what Chi said...you know we can all read the polls...And 18 was a midterm. Your numbers are for 20. I suggest you delete...unless you have a burning desire to misinterpret Victor Chi- who is a very talented guy.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

48. Mail-in voting wasn't standard yet in 2018 (a pre-pandemic year).

It's really hard to compare those. Votes are dramatically up for every age group (75+ is up by over 6 times, for example. Not only that, it says that 18-29 were 16.8% of the early vote in 2018, and 7.5% in 2022.

[wryter2000]

44. I'm getting the shivers

Like the night of the vote in Kansas

[Demsrule86]

46. Me too...fired up and ready to go...

[OneCrazyDiamond]

47. It's the SC decision on Roe v Wade

They have released the Kraken, and I predict we will have the votes to codify Roe next year as a result.

[Lunabell]

51. Yes! This is so encouraging!!

As a baby boomer, I am so sad at what my generation has done to this earth. I chose not to have children early in my life because I knew the direction we were going. I hope it is not too late. 😕

[republianmushroom]

55. LIKE IT

[onenote]

58. No matter how many times i read Chi' post, it doesn't make much sense.

What does he mean when he says that in 2018, young Democrats accounted for 60% of the electorate, now it’s 81% of the electorate. I'm not sure that anything in the numbers he has posted is indicative of some major increase in turnout among young voters. Comparing 2018 to 2022 is useless since early voting was restricted in 2018. And 2020 was an election year.

The reality is that until the election day votes are counted, no one can say for certain whether more young people are voting or that the same number (or even fewer) are voting, but more of those who are voting are doing so early.

[questionseverything]

61. He is talking about early youth vote

It was 60% democratic

Now it’s 80 % democratic

Another way to look at it

Before, of the early youth vote 40% was repub now it’s only 20%