General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBut is the economy really all that bad?
Back when recession was being used as a euphemism for depression, there was.a running joke that went "When the other guy has lost his job, its a recession. When you lose your job its a depression."
I am not saying that the economy is great.
The unemployment rate is around 3.8% M6, where 4.0% is considered full employment. Companies are terrified of cutting jobs, because they may never find replacements. Prices are high because retailers have become greedy, and don't want to be the first to capitulate, but inventory is beginning to bust the doors off the warehouses .
I foresee discounts on most consumer goods by December, and a frenzy of discounting by February. It is also likely that this may be the first year where people weather a Covid uptick with comparatively mild effects, primarily because we are better prepared to treat Covid before it gets to the hospitalization stage. This means diminishing inflationary pressures.
So who is seeing recessions? Business owners and investors. Labor is getting more expensive, and businesses that exploit labor are failing. That labor is not as geofenced -they can choose from a larger potential pool of employers in many cases, and can increasingly do jobs that provide some financial support vs jobs that require irregular schedules, commute costs and the like for very little more. Employers hate Obamacare because people become less afraid of changing jobs, which only exacerbates flight from bad jobs.
Finally, we are getting perilously close to exposing the big lie that business owners create jobs. When an auto manufacturer gets a huge tax break for creating jobs in a state then fills that factory with state of the art automation running the latest AI rather than hiring people, people remember. The GOP has done a pretty good job of running the long con, but the cognitive fog machine is breaking down.
When you hear people bemoaning the state of the economy, ask them if they are still employed. Ask them if they are making more today than three years ago, and if they personally are really worse off. Chances are good that they will either admit that they are or will change the subject.
19 votes, 1 pass | Time left: Time expired | |
I am gainfully employed and doing better than three years ago | |
11 (58%) |
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I am employed, but things have worsened | |
2 (11%) |
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I am deliberately unemployed | |
6 (32%) |
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I am unemployed against my will. | |
0 (0%) |
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1 DU member did not wish to select any of the options provided. | |
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll |
Polybius
(17,246 posts)My pay sucks, my stocks are down, and gas and food prices are up. I don't blame Biden, though.
tirebiter
(2,582 posts)Having skills gives me room ti negotiate.
DFW
(56,281 posts)I dont ask for more because I make enough to cover what I want/need. We are still hiring, though some skills/attributes are required, but were not huge, maybe 550 people worldwide. My Roth IRA is way down like everyone else, but due to a dispute with the German government, I dont touch it anyway. Being a Roth IRA, I paid the taxes due at the time of conversion. But the double-taxation treaty was written before the enactment of the Roth IRA. The Germans dont recognize its existence, and want to take ANOTHER 50% if I withdraw anything. So I dont, even though Im 70.
As station chief for Europe, I theoretically have about 25 or 30 people working under me, but they are all good people, and I give them a lot of autonomy. Worldwide we have close to no employee turnover. I doubt that many companiesin Texas or any other stateask their lowest level employees, you havent been on one of our business trips to Hong Kong to Europe yet. Do you want to go next time? When I was recruited in 1975, we were maybe 12 people, and at 23, I was almost the oldest. Now, 47 years later, and with 550 people, I am no longer the oldest. One of my friends back at the office in Dallas is 82. Dont even try to suggest retirement to him. The hours are long, and theres shit to put up with, like any job, but its one of those unusual do you have something else youd rather do? jobs. One guy we hired as a go-fer to make lunch runs maybe 30 odd years ago was really smart and personable. He is now head of logistics and makes a comfortable six figure salary. Our best year ever was the first half of 2021, so, yes were better off than three years agoALL of us. We spread the joy around when times are good, too. When they are not, the top guys reduce their salaries to $1, and the next tier (including me) take a 50% salary cut until the storm has passed. The people who can least afford that are never asked to. It doesnt happen often, but it has happened. We know what to do if it happens again. Like I said, we ask a lot, but have very little turnover.
doc03
(36,475 posts)invasion of Ukraine and corporate greed.
I think Democrats have really done a terrible job of messaging. They should be hammering the Russian invasion of Ukraine
causing high gas prices in their ads constantly. I think it is too late to start now it's probably baked in.
Deuxcents
(19,194 posts)Thankfully, I did take good advice a long time ago n didnt put all my eggs in one basket. Our economy would be a lot stronger if the opposition would participate in Bidens proposals. The doom n gloom they are spewing could be met w/ a stronger message, I agree. There are many accomplishments not being recognized
onenote
(44,160 posts)Heck its probably double what it was a decade ago and up by 20 percent since 2018. I didn't think I was poor then and i don't think Im poor now. I''ve lost a bunch of paper gains
Sympthsical
(9,969 posts)Real wages are down. Prices are up. Thats what counts. Thats what hurts. My company is currently laying off hundreds.
Saying, What problem? is just . . .
I cant believe Im still reading this stuff. What color sky is it in this world? I feel like Im about to start hearing, Grocery prices arent a big deal! next.
Jesus. My ability to can has fled the field.
Treefrog
(4,170 posts)brooklynite
(96,882 posts)Enter stage left
(3,760 posts)BUT, you can explain to them WHY they're hurting. This is where our party is falling down on the job.
We need to do a much better job of messaging.
C'mom DNC, get your shit together!
BTW...I've been retired for 8+ years, but this is still hurting us.
leftstreet
(36,219 posts)Not sure the results of this poll will have a lot of bearing on election issues
slightlv
(4,117 posts)My IRA is on life support. I hold few other "implements"... nothing doing well. Other than that, we live on Social Security. With inflation, especially in the food department, we're barely holding our own.
However, I'm voting straight democratic ticket next month. The only time the economy does well is when Democrats are in office. Two more years for Biden, and a fully Democratic Congress and we MIGHT be able to make strides. That is, IF the administration does something to rein in our oligarchs.
Metaphorical
(2,135 posts)I am not saying the economy is great. It's not - it is recovering from the pandemic, and there are massive distortions at work right now. Stocks and IRAs are down because you can't lower inflation until price signals adjust to reflect demand, which means discounting.
Ironically many companies are doing exactly the wrong thing right now: reducing head count to increase profitability. This destroys demand, while doing nothing for inventory, and instead sends more companies into death spirals as they lose the ability to remain competitive. Companies should be reducing dividends now, even taking a short-term loss, but that is so anathema to what has evolved out of capitalism as to be unthinkable.
As to messaging, Biden has said precisely this. However, every time he does, America's passion poor excuse for journalism kicks up the volume on the lies. Americans don't like uncomfortable truths. This is unfortunate because it will spell the.end of the country when denial us no longer an option.
TeamProg
(6,630 posts)betsuni
(27,251 posts)Last edited Fri Oct 21, 2022, 03:51 AM - Edit history (1)
And no, the U.S. is not an oligarchy, for those who say it is.
Genki Hikari
(1,766 posts)When the working class was finally pushed into the toilet, this isn't so bad. The inflation isn't nearly as terrifying as it was when I was in high school then into the 80s. Workers are starting to do much better, because they don't have to worry about massive layoffs over greed and other idiotic reasons.
Some things are worse, yes, but this is livable for my household in comparison to the gnawing fear I always had in the early 80s after I left home to be on my my own out of necessity. If I had to live with my mother one more day, I was gonna kill myself.